Best performers on worst trading days

[tech/a]

Had a thought that finding the best trading stocks on the worst trading days like Yesteday and 5/10/05 and 6/10/05 may find stocks that are somewhat immune to these drops.Stock that possibly just keeps performing positively without being effected by the broader market forces.

5/10
BDI
AVO

6/10
RRS
BTV
ACL

11/10
There were over 10 but the best I thought being
ACL---again
LFE

Thought this theory maybe worth watching.

The code is very simple and looks for stocks that have risen 5% on yesterdays close with rising volume and a liquidity filter

Its METASTOCK CODE

Exploration notes

Col A: C>Ref(C,-1)*1.05 AND Fml("liquidity")>200000 AND
V>Ref(V,-1)
Filter colA=1

Filter enabled Yes
Periodicity Daily


Liquidity formula is Mov(V * C,21,S)

Place in Indicator Builder and call it liquidity
Records required 2500

 

[krisbarry]

Re: Best performers on worst trading days.

No tech/a both BTV and RRS had released price sensitive annoucments on the 5th, hence the rise in both on the 6th.

No need to complicate the story with formula or theory, the announcements had a direct result on share price.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Best performers on worst trading days.

Thanks for your input Kris.

Yes normally the case,pretty hard to search for hrs looking for announcements that MAY cause a price to go against the tide.
Simpler to conduct a search of price action that day---find the few that have actually out performed---then have a look at possible reasons and if happy then buy.

Thus saving hrs pondering.
10 mins and your done.

Again you confuse the use of technical analysis.
In this case the THEORY is to find out performers on very bad trade days.
The future will tell the story---with results---so far they are pretty good.

The analysis (technical) isnt the REASON price moves positively--its simply a tool to identify prospects a chart will tell you far more than an announcement when it comes to market reaction---as you would know from PNO.

Thanks again for your thoughtful comments very helpful to those looking for ways to improve their trading.

Perhaps you could post a few with announcements that could have the stock performing positively against the tide---then we can see if its SIMPLY a case of announcements---should be interesting.
Just 7 like the 7 I've posted should do the trick.

WEB was in yesterdays lot couldnt see PNO though.
Still if it works for you----------

 

[Julia]

Tech,

You suggest having to spend hours looking for price sensitive announcements.
Can't you check these on the ASX website? Perhaps they don't cover all companies, but I've always been able to find them instantly.

Julia

 

[krisbarry]

Of course, now I understand you are posting a formula and a theory to go with it.

But you must exclude stocks with price sensitive announcements, out of your theory for the theory to be truly tested.

You must prove your theory to be correct on market forces alone, not announcements.

Both announcements were posted after close of trade on the 5th, so natural reaction would have been to jump on them in open of trade on the 6th, regardless if it was going to be a bad trade day or not.

Yes I agree I use this thread and refresh it all day for new announcements, very simple!

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/todayAnnHeaders.jsp?

 

[tech/a]

Julia.

Simply which announcement do you act on?
How long would it take to go through all announcements and select prospects? I can and did do it in 5 mins and that included writing the code.

The analysis INDICATES which might be best to act on.
ACL and
LFE both up around 8% this morning.
Guess what NO ANNOUNCEMENTS

Anyway no interest in the idea no problems
Was just a thought.

 

[dutchie]

Tech

The merit of your system is that you can quickly find the possible candidates and then check to see why they performed better (i.e. was it due to a positive announcement etc). You can also easily add conditions to further cull them.

The other way round would take longer in that even though there may be a positive announcement you are still going to have to check the chart to determine whether to invest or not (unless you invest purely on the announcement only).

 

[kaveman]

tech I have often wondered about those stocks that go up whilst most others are floundering, especially over the next few days, but never actually did anything to check it.
Carry on tech and forget those pesky announcers Stocks can move whether they have an ann or not and TA just records the moves

 

[Happy]

Tech/a,

I suppose this is difficult to automate the system (with my coding ability anyway), so it has to be done the way you do it, after Down Day, run Exploration and manually cull ones that are not in up-trend.

If between other things like doing all the jobs you do, including attempts to tame the KB you still have time, you could name the candidate stocks, and after a month or so we can revisit and see if there is something on the table.

 

[Julia]

Julia.

Simply which announcement do you act on?
How long would it take to go through all announcements and select prospects? I can and did do it in 5 mins and that included writing the code.

The analysis INDICATES which might be best to act on.
ACL and
LFE both up around 8% this morning.
Guess what NO ANNOUNCEMENTS

Anyway no interest in the idea no problems
Was just a thought.

Hi Tech,

As I said "perhaps not all companies are covered".

How long does it take: to read the PDF details of companies in which I'm interested probably about 5 minutes or sometimes zilch if none of my portfolio appears to have a price sensitive announcement.

As you know, because I lack competence in a technical approach, I'm not in a position to refer to the chart first then the announcements as a back up.
How do I decide which to act on?

Because my strategy is long term buy and hold I just check announcements to see if any of my current portfolio could be adversely (or positively) affected. If it appears could be adverse effect, then I do some further investigations and ultimately come back to whether or not that particular announcement will affect the LONG TERM PROFITABILITY of that company.
Seems to work pretty well for me so far over several years.

Cheers
Julia

 

[happytrader]

Hi there

I must mention I trade a very limited number of not too volatile bluechip stocks. If and when a price sensitive announcement is made I just check out market depth on the dynamic data. That gives me an idea of the likely direction, strength of the intention and speed at which that stock is being moved.

Since people are creatures of habit I tend to look at specific times.
These are merely my thoughts and observations and are not to be as recommendation or financial advice.

Cheers

Happytrader