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BBG - Billabong International

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skc said:
I wouldn't classify TPG as tyre kickers in this instance given that they spent a fair bit of time on it and it was their 2nd approach.
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I don't think TPG were tyre kickers, although Bain seems to have been. Nevertheless, I think they should have had to put something on the table before they were given the keys to the castle.
 
$1.10 deal announced with coupled with a trading update that slashed EBITDA forecasted in Sept = great pre-xmas wipeout for shareholders...

And the kicker is that the bidding consortium doesn't know about the trading update yet. So the deal is probably dead on arrival...
 
skc said:
And the kicker is that the bidding consortium doesn't know about the trading update yet. So the deal is probably dead on arrival...
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He said the consortium was also yet to conduct due diligence, a process during which two previous bids collapsed.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/b...spite-leaks-20121219-2bly5.html#ixzz2FUQLnp1S
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What???
The guy bidding is a fricken ex very recent director. As if he doesn't know what the probable result would have been and as if he needs to do due diligence.
How rediculous.
This guy reckons it's a cracking deal buy his behaiviour.
 
It's now a double due diligence at 1.10
Odd the price took a bit of a dip at the end of the day just prior to the announcement, which I took a chunk of.
Perhaps it's a dumby bid.
 
Mr Naude, Sycamore Partners and BOA Merrill Lynch should now walk, now that they have seen the books, and just sit out what happens with Nth Face and co.
Kick the price down.
Then come in with a counter bid if something looks like it's going to happen at an acceptable price with Nth Face and co.
 
Lorna Karen Inman buys 713,401 shares.
Pretty confident after what was considered a pretty dire report.
Take overs on, I'd reckon.
 
No more so than any other traditional retailer at these levels. Sector has had a good turn recently.
 
Spose they could ring around and ask why people were selling it?:silly:

You could guess that-
It just fell through support, triggered shorters to sell and longs to flee.

Probably exacerbated by the recent call for Nth face and co to stump up or go away.
So those hanging for a deal may have taken the technical exacerbated action as a message that Nth face and co. are walking away.

Hope it is there at the open under the same mysterious fog!
I reckon the ex director wants it and thinks it's good value and Nth face would like to not have to compete with it so will try to make the bid hard or even put in a genuine competing bid to at least put the pressure on the new competition if they don't really want it.
 
I wonder how they simply can stop the stock from further trading, is that something that happens regularly? And does this mean it’s a buying opportunity as soon as the market opens tomorrow?
 
It's a bit odd to call a halt to trading because of large stock moves.
When there is a takeover on the table it happens a bit.

I think it's a buy tomorrow at this level and was buying today, but it could drop another 15% till something of substance emerges.
The other million or so market participants may think differentlty and certainly seem to be at present, so what I think is just that.
I can afford for it to go to zero!
Generally it is recommended not to play takeovers.
 
McLovin said:
Down 14.2% today, company has no idea why, either. Strange.
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Watch it this morning when it fell ~4% on what looked like committed selling, but the next time I glanced at it it was at 65c... wish I paid more attention on the short side.

Are you still holding?



They mentioned the AFR article but that was published before the market opened. The shorts increased by ~1% (~7m shares) in the past week but the overall level of shorting is relatively low at 2.85%.

What's the North Face story? Do you have a good artcile? North Face is more winter adventure gear than surf / street wear? Or am I totally out of sync with fashion these days

YMI said:
I wonder how they simply can stop the stock from further trading, is that something that happens regularly? And does this mean it’s a buying opportunity as soon as the market opens tomorrow?
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Trading halts happen quite regularly. If BBG didn't halt themselves, ASX would have halted trading for them in the name of continuous disclosure and orderly markets. As to buying opportunity... it all depends on what the real reason is, whether the seller has finished selling, and where it opens. I'd imagine it will be a tentative open (i.e. not much higher than today's last price), but if there's no selling after the first few minutes it could run back towards the resistance at least.

I think it's a two horse race between SDL and BBG on the most farcical takeover saga ever.
 
skc said:
Are you still holding?
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Nope. I bought and sold at around a $1. Of course in the interim it went to $1.40. Gekko is wrong, lesson learned.

If this buyout doesn't go ahead, then look out below. I'll buy it below 50c.
 
skc said:
What's the North Face story? Do you have a good artcile? North Face is more winter adventure gear than surf / street wear? Or am I totally out of sync with fashion these days
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I read something about them whanting to take some of the brands stuff under and the consortium partners would take the other bits. It think they are being mischievous. When do you go to an auction and bid the same price as the previous bid? Crap.

skc said:
I think it's a two horse race between SDL and BBG on the most farcical takeover saga ever.
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No way. SDL craps all over it.
Starts with a plane crash killing the whole team, 2 years or Chinese torture, director convicted for insider trading, flees the country - gets away!, Final moment - Hanlong CEO arrested for God knows what in China perhaps for getting caught murdering board members? How can you beat that!!
 
McLovin said:
Nope. I bought and sold at around a $1. Of course in the interim it went to $1.40. Gekko is wrong, lesson learned.

If this buyout doesn't go ahead, then look out below. I'll buy it below 50c.
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Latest EBITDA guidance = $74-$85m in constant currency terms, so say $80m. BTW the guidance went from $130m in Sept to $85-92m in Dec then $74-85m in Mar, so based on this trajectory it'd be ~$60m come June.

Take $80m EBITDA and trading at 6x gives EV of $480m.

Debt was $152m, deferred consideration $55m, so equity value ~$273m. With 480m shares on issue that's 57c per share. By the time EBITDA falls to $60m, the same calculation yields 32c per share.

So below 50c is a pretty real possibility and may not turn around until there are concrete signs of EBITDA turnaround.
 

So true. SDL wins by a country mile.
 
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