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BBG - Billabong International

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BIG WHITE into NEW AIR and above a significant point in its trading history

Hold Long
 

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Hey Dutchy and others who follow BBG, here's another EW study, beginner's attempt only so please don't trade it! Shows a recent blow-off top. The red line at the wave 1 high is the point which invalidates the current count, should retrace to range of previous degree wave 4 (a running flat). I thought of this today because of a bullish broker note from www.egoli.com.au.
 

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Hey Dutchy, I can't quite work out your charts. Are you using waves? I'm fairly new to Waves, so would not know.

Looking at the sp on Friday, it seems the bears are in control. I'm expecting more down side next week for sure.
 
Hi

Agree ... I closed out of BBG a few months ago as it languished.

I too hold two small long ASX positions at the moment.

Even my super I've adjusted out of Aust Shares and into Aust property. There will be an opportunity cost of holding the index out to 06/07.
 
This thread has been very quiet for a while.

This chart is showing some interesting signs atm for my study with Wyckoff. So far it looks like we have had a selling climax although the vol is relatively low compared to the 2 secondary tests.

It's the 2nd ST that has my interest, while the vol is ultra high on the big gap down day (26.10.07), the range while wide isn't super wide compared to the SC and some of the other bars. This may be a weak day but I'm also seeing some strength in this bar and the bars following it, someone appears to be buying at these levels. The 2 bars following the 26th have weak closes off the highs but have not been able to push past the lows of the 26th even with high-ish vol and todays bar is showing signs of supply starting to ease off.
I would now be looking of some sort of rally in the next week or so and then another re-test (or shakeout) under the $14.80 area but on reduced vol indicating that supply has be absorbed.
This trading range looks to still have a bit of work to do, but to me is showing some signs of accumulation.

The P&F chart (not attached) is also starting to show signs of a base (cause) building.

Any feed back or thoughts are welcome.

Discussion only, I don't hold (yet).
 

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Since my last post I have taken a position at around $14.30 based on the support shown at the $14.00 level and the spring on the 27.11.07. While the vol was still highish on the spring the size of the spring convinced me it was worth the risk with a stop at $13.80.

Prices are now at the 50% retracement level of the last move down (red line) and how the sp reacts at these levels will be telling imo. The support area discussed in my last post which didn't hold may provide some support now with prices bouncing nicely off that area on Friday.
 

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Does anyone here have thoughts on BBG the business, not bbg the share......it sure looks to be wiggling into range.......it has always been the business I dream of after being heckled constantly as a youngster poor enought to only afford Hang Ten clothing......I diggress, but this correction is sure bringing some gems to earth or whatever analogy...
 
Bong is going strong as a business.
Personally I think their clothes are much better than QS and Rip Curl over all and their current sponno'd surfers are killing it.
QS on the other hand is a bit stale if you ask me.
Bong's buying of other businesses such as Nixon, kustom, VZ, Element, Electric etc Has been where they have done really well in my opinion. QS have been branding everything from shoes to sunnies under teir label and from a fashion point of view people don't want to be decked out in one brand (same heckling as your hang ten experience )

Take this with a grain of salt though as I was a holder of a nice amount of BBG since float and got rid of them last year @ $18 after much deliberation. (one of my only decent decisions recently it feels like)
I'm looking at getting back in pretty soon.
 
I bought into Billabong today, not a big parcel though.

Price was too good for me to keep going past, and I've been watching very closely the last few days, with research and analysis proving ok, confident of both long term and short term prospects
 
Hey Tristo.......you may wish to have a read of the latest issue of The Rainmaker for BBG......definitely an interesting proposition
 
You might be surprised to know I had read it before I bought as one of the many bits of info i had looked at for research
 
Up 7.65% this morning on little news, apart from strength in US retail sales rather than expected weakness.
 
It's down 16% odd today, that hurts. I thought it was tip toeing along nicely.

Does anyone know whats happening?

Geoff.
 
AQR said:
It's down 16% odd today, that hurts. I thought it was tip toeing along nicely.

Does anyone know whats happening?

Geoff.
Click to expand...
First thing I do when something like this happens is check the anns.

Being a consumer discretionary, of sorts, this was in the waves.

MARKET UPDATE

GOLD COAST, 4 December 2008: A further deterioration in trading conditions at a consumer level, primarily in the United States, has led Billabong International Limited to review its forward expectations for the 2008-09 financial year. The softness, which is being seen at both the wholesale and company-owned retail levels, particularly in the US, has accelerated throughout November. In response to this, the Company is revising its full year guidance to a range of 6% to 10% earnings per share (EPS) growth, down from the previously forecast 12% to 16% EPS growth provided at the time of the Company’s Annual General Meeting in October 2008. This assumes a revised annual average exchange rate of 75 cents for the AUD/USD and an unchanged 55 cents for the AUD/Euro.
 
AQR said:
It's down 16% odd today, that hurts. I thought it was tip toeing along nicely.

Does anyone know whats happening?

Geoff.
Click to expand...

Earning guidance downgrad... see ASX release or any business news website.

Do you really have to post on this forum to get this kind of information??
 
skc said:
Earning guidance downgrad... see ASX release or any business news website.

Do you really have to post on this forum to get this kind of information??
Click to expand...

Thanks for the advice, sorry I took up your space & time, next time I have an inane question, I'll go elsewhere, where it's hopefully more friendly.

Geoff.
 
AQR said:
Thanks for the advice, sorry I took up your space & time, next time I have an inane question, I'll go elsewhere, where it's hopefully more friendly.

Geoff.
Click to expand...

Geoff, I believe we will all enjoy a richer forum if posters put more informed discussions forward - like one's view of any announcement, or something like "BBG tanked today, I looked everywhere but there was no news, does anyone know anything?"

Nonetheless, my comment/question was not at all meant to be personal attack - so please don't take offense. I hope you continue to use this forum.
 


Hi guys,

BBG ... from a techie's view, we will be looking at some heavy-duty downside
in 2009, particularly around 20-26032009 and then looking for an extreme low,
between 21092009-04112009 ..... !~!

..... first signs of recovery may emerge soon after, around 06112009, when
some minor and positive news may be expected .....

Updated BBG chart, attached below.

Merry Christmas and happy trading in 2009.

have a great weekend

paul



=====
 

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In the last week or so, it has been going up against the rest of the market.

Why?

There are no announcements on ASX except that PPT were selling off some BBG.

I mean, I don't mind this one bit but I would like to know why?
 
BBG is a good company, run by good management, who have acheived good results and who have good prospects. I am not surprised in the least that the price has kept climbing recently, and I expect it has a bit to go (my target short term is $11.93 / ~6.5-7%).
On the technical side, it recently broke resistance at 11.0 and has stayed there, this is a very bullish signal and one that I think will remain while ever the greater market is boyant.
If fiscal policy (if you could call it that) here and in the US expand on the retail spend, then I'll be revising upwards.
 
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