Banks turning the corner?

[Bill M]

Today all the major banks bounced up. Have we turned the corner? I personally have been buying through these lows for the purposes of long term retirement funding. Anyone care to share their opinions?

CBA up 4.8%

WBC up 4.6%

SGB up 4.4%

NAB up 1.8%

ANZ up 1%

MQG up 1%

 

[Buster]

Today all the major banks bounced up. Have we turned the corner? I personally have been buying through these lows for the purposes of long term retirement funding. Anyone care to share their opinions?

I'm with you on the buying front (and retirement funding plan) Bill, however I'm very wary about the banks in the current climate and have steered well clear of them, plenty of other Blue Chips at bargain prices as far as I'm concerned..

Could be a mistake, but you live and learn..

Regards,

Buster

 

[overule]

Personally,

I think banks are yet to fall further. Any word of recession is going to hurt the financial market especially with the crucial data from wall st. this week. I am looking at banks this week which will be interesting.

 

[weird]

I will avoid the word signals, as some Trade Guider guys hate the mere reference, and replace it with arrows.

A friend sent me some TG bullish arrows on bank stocks at a few points in the last few months, but all have quickly fell through.

Looking at horizontal support lines, again banks fell through recent previous ones.

This may be considered pretty extreme negative sector sentiment ... perhaps very oversold (and perhaps the latter sentiment is because people have always had love affairs with banks and why wouldn't you, considering the profit reporting each year)..

Banks again, are sitting and bouncing off the further out horizontal support lines ... pullback ? Could be. Certain ? There are other opportunies, in different sectors with strong bounce atm ...

 

[M34N]

I personally bought a bunch of CBA @ $42.50 at the open on Friday (refer to the CBA thread on why I decided on that), mostly on the basis I'm going to hold for the long term.

BTW, CBA and WBC performed well today because of the brokerage upgrades from Citi, and SGB is always a moderately volatile stock (esp. for a bank) so no surprise there -- and it's interesting to note BNB again up 3%, its performance over the last few days has been nothing but short of amazing, up from around $15 a few days ago to $18.

I don't think this is the end of the volatility, but it's about time the carnage stopped for a while at least. I wouldn't put all my money on the banks, hence why I only bought some CBA stocks, because I'd rather have my money long on resources, I still think they have some distance to run. Look at BSL, RIO, WPL and BHP's performance for the past month, they're virtually holding the ASX/S&P200 up on their own.

 

[AnDy62]

Me thinks banks are oversold. Also think that the next few months will see futher jitters and buying opps. Currently I have NAB - a (bad) long termer and SUN. I'm looking at adding either ANZ/CBA in the future as both have been smashed for what was, in the scale of things, not that bigger deal. But generally, most my portfolio is in gold / resources. But for the long term... these are juicy prices

 

[reece55]

Today all the major banks bounced up. Have we turned the corner? I personally have been buying through these lows for the purposes of long term retirement funding. Anyone care to share their opinions?

CBA up 4.8%

WBC up 4.6%

SGB up 4.4%

NAB up 1.8%

ANZ up 1%

MQG up 1%

In the short term, yes.....

In the long term, no....

My strategy with the banks is trade them, don't invest in them in this environment. There will be bounces, but Banks and financials in general are in bear mode and need to be traded accordingly....... There may be worse to come in light of the bond insurers, spreads are wide as anything and provisions are still at all time lows.... What is cheap now could be expensive in 2 years time.....

Cheers

 

[weird]

Interesting point, Reece55.

I am not a fan of oversold trading , particular long term (although day trading may be different though in some certain circumstances) , because you may think you have bought oversold stocks, just to find many continue to go south (and with huge gaps) or even disappear (holding overnight would be very scary) ... however, concerning our big 4 or 5 I do wonder a little if this to be the case at our current levels , I fortunately have the benefit of seeing the previous falls to post this now (we are at an interesting and more significant juncture point ... at least to myself ... concerning horizontal support) ... but I don't wish to be the guy in Princess Bride, thats says the famously, "inconceivable ... ".

However as I said previously, there are more interesting stocks atm.

 

[AnDy62]

In the short term, yes.....

In the long term, no....
My strategy with the banks is trade them, don't invest in them in this environment. There will be bounces, but Banks and financials in general are in bear mode and need to be traded accordingly....... There may be worse to come in light of the bond insurers, spreads are wide as anything and provisions are still at all time lows.... What is cheap now could be expensive in 2 years time.....

Cheers

So you are saying banks won't bounce back in the long term? That in twenty years time they will be at current levels??? Big call...

 

[reece55]

So you are saying banks won't bounce back in the long term? That in twenty years time they will be at current levels??? Big call...

Sorry, I should have said medium term..... I am thinking in two years time, you might get the dividend, but I wouldn't be surprised to see very little or no capital growth... The risk is skewed to the downside IMO in the next 1 - 2 years, better to invest capital in other areas that will experience growth rather than write downs and margin pressure....

20 years from now - well, there could be another subprime equivalent by then!!!!

Cheers

 

[ShareIt]

For CBA and WBC, the short term outlook shows all technical indicators are pointing to a buy, hopefully we can get a 50% retracement... NAB and ANZ seem still a little undecided...

 

[wavepicker]

For CBA and WBC, the short term outlook shows all technical indicators are pointing to a buy, hopefully we can get a 50% retracement... NAB and ANZ seem still a little undecided...

Would be pushing it IMO. More like a 38% retrace would be realistic in the next 3-4 weeks before resuming southside.

 

[Nicks]

Ive been a holder of ANZ for about 4 years now. Apart from the divs the capital gains have been smashed in the last few weeks. Disappointing as I was always of the view that ANZ was the most promising of the big 4.

Locally in retail they seem to have been very active, acquiring Etrade, marketing their products well. I guess being up front and diligent about allocating funds to cover subprime has hurt them short term.

I have to wonder if they are just being prudent, upfront and diligent and perhaps the others are not?

 

[TheAbyss]

NAB have 5.01% and CBA 17.23% of ABC Learning.

MFS, CNP AFG now ABS. The banks incur many more hits to their investment base and they may have to start making a few disclosures re losses and then we will see if they have turned up or down. Buyer beware.

 

[ShareIt]

NAB have 5.01% and CBA 17.23% of ABC Learning.

MFS, CNP AFG now ABS. The banks incur many more hits to their investment base and they may have to start making a few disclosures re losses and then we will see if they have turned up or down. Buyer beware.

Actually, play what the price movement is telling you... not what you hear

 

[TheAbyss]

Good point ShareIt - Waiting until knowledge is in the public domain is far too late. Plan the trade and trade the plan.

 

[Sean K]

Some of the indicators are just starting to turn, but could just as easily fall over again at this stage. You could try and catch the knife if you had a very long term view but I personally wouldn't be touching them until some consistant higher highs and lows. Unless you're short term trading of course.

 

[ROE]

Today all the major banks bounced up. Have we turned the corner? I personally have been buying through these lows for the purposes of long term retirement funding. Anyone care to share their opinions?

CBA up 4.8%

WBC up 4.6%

SGB up 4.4%

NAB up 1.8%

ANZ up 1%

MQG up 1%

Subprime is no where near finish, it still has a fair way to play ... it's a 100 Billion dollars floating around with only about 10-15B reported lost so far so
lot more to come.

As long as this subprime hang around liquidity is still a problem and banks dont make money when there is no capital to borrow

 

[ShareIt]

A lot of hesitation today in the four major banks... CBA with some resistance around $46, NAB at $30, WBC at $24 and ANZ at $23... they also seem to show small candles (possible reversals down)... probably best to wait if resistance is crossed and then consolidated at that level... if they close down tomorrow, then I think a trip back to support will be the go

 

[Bill M]

Subprime is no where near finish, it still has a fair way to play ... it's a 100 Billion dollars floating around with only about 10-15B reported lost so far so
lot more to come.

As long as this subprime hang around liquidity is still a problem and banks dont make money when there is no capital to borrow

The last I read anywhere is that there "could" be as much as $5.5 Billion of sub prime exposure between the 5 big banks in Australia. Could you please supply a news story or link as to where you are getting this $100 Billion from? Thank You.