Banking stocks - Forecast for the 06/07 FY

[utedog]

I thought I might go a bit old-school and look at the banking sector. Not much discussion has happend lately on the banking sector. Banking stocks have always played a big part in my portfolio.... I pretty much had shares in all of the major ones but have realised profits (I do admit a bit too early in some cases) and now reduced to only ANZ and NAB. What are everyones thoughts on how the sector will perform next year? Will it be a dud? Most analysts are certainly quite clear as they only forecast a very small EPS growth - if at all.
What's everyone's though on the banking sector and its outlook for the next year?? Will it be a repetition of what we saw in 2002&2003? Looking forward to some discussion...

 

[Stan 101]

I don't know but I'm happy with BOQs little rally at the moment.. Let's hope it keeps running....

 

[Warren Buffet II]

I like CBA and SUN they are the best position in the market at the moment and IMO are cheap in comparison to others.

WBII

 

[Realist]

Be careful about banks in NZ. NAB -> BNZ, CBA -> ASB etc.

They're in for hard time me thinks. Housing downturn, dollar falling etc.

Kiwis are highly leveraged - large mortgages, not much super or savings.

 

[pacer]

Went short on thursday CBA...........2-3% down today...thanks

 

[rozella]

CBA was quoted exdividend today, dividend 130.0/share, fully franked 55.71/share.

 

[michael_selway]

CBA was quoted exdividend today, dividend 130.0/share, fully franked 55.71/share.

Does that mean PACER has to pay back the dividend to the "owner" for his short on CBA?

thx

MS

 

[pacer]

Got out first thing with a profit and went short again at 44.80....got some more falls in it yet me thinks....$41 target for my estimates by the end of next week....then a rise or some volatility. I think the peak we just had was too much and will be slightly over compensated for to $41 easily, especily with thier exposure to housing etc,...will stay short again till a definite turn around occours....following the trend.

Of course I do hate getting in at the bottom of a fall, and making a fool of myself....but I have good % hit rate on my trades to make up for the losses.

 

[rozella]

Does that mean PACER has to pay back the dividend to the "owner" for his short on CBA?

thx

MS

That is usually the case MS, but pacer should be able to fill us in with the actuals.

I thought CBA went very well today as I was allowing for a drop of div + fc = 186.0/share....its falling back atm, but down 125.0 as I type.

 

[pacer]

Yep I had to pay the divvy but the drop more than offset this.......I also thought it might bounce back up so got out as was not sure how much it would go....should have reversed my position for a couple of hours then reversed again.......could have make a few thou......trends for ex-div are reasonably predictable and a good way to make a quick buck.

Offer put to GAS at $2.88...caused CBA to drop!....good purchase in these times, but still staying short on CBA till the graph turns.....or confidence returns to the market....another red day today.