BAL - Bellamy's Australia

bigdog said:

12 month high $23.07 and low of $6.91

Close yesterday at $7.23 Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) share price has fallen more than 30% from its August 31 closing price of $10.96.

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Nice bounce off the lows today on good Volume … closed up 10% at $7.96

I'd say the falls are also due to the uncertainty with getting SAMR/CFDA registration in China with potential further delays.

bigdog said:

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12 month high $23.07 and low of $6.91

Close yesterday at $7.23 Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) share price has fallen more than 30% from its August 31 closing price of $10.96.

The big falls have been subsequent to an October 24 trading update that warned of a weaker-than-expected start to financial year 2019.

As such the stock’s falls may be well deserved and little to do with the wider macro-economic environment.

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barney said:

Nice bounce off the lows today on good Volume … closed up 10% at $7.96

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I have not looked at this companies fundamentals or look at their chart, but I see there share price 2 ways :

1 Australian market, they are worth $7-9
2 Chinese market, yes there are some obstacles, but if they can bounce over them, share price x10 min of Australian $70, the high risk reward is can they penetrate and sustain delivery into the Chinese market which as well all know is massive.

Overall from this current price, it is a weighted gamble, if they cannot sustain market share and growth in China, they are not worth much than $7, if they can then, $23 looks very cheap.

ASX Announcement this morning









Bellamy’s Chief Executive Officer Andrew Cohen and Chief Financial Officer Nigel Underwood will present the financial results via a webcast at 10:00am (AEDT) Thursday 27 February 2019. The webcast link will be live from 9:45am (AEDT). The link to the webcast is as follows:

https://webcast.openbriefing.com/4925/

Motley Fool reports
Bellamy’s posts 26% decline in half year profits
James Mickleboro | February 27, 2019
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/27/bellamys-posts-26-decline-in-half-year-profits/
The Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) share price will be on watch this morning following the release of its disappointing half year results.

For the six months ended December 31, on a normalised basis the infant formula company posted a 25.9% decline in revenue to $129.6 million, a 25.5% drop in EBITDA to $26 million, and a 26.3% decline in net profit after tax to $16.5 million.

On a statutory basis EBITDA came in 59.9% lower than the prior corresponding period at $14 million and net profit after tax was down 63.8% at $8.1 million. The statutory result includes a $12 million one-off inventory provision for all legacy-label inventory following its rebrand.

Management blamed the poor half on a decline in sales due to a number of factors including delayed SAMR registration, a planned reduction in trade inventory prior to the rebrand, and an observed slowdown in category performance.

What’s next?
Unfortunately, management has downgraded its full year guidance. At its annual general meeting it revealed that it expected full year Australian label revenue growth at the low end of its 0% to 10% range on FY 2018’s $302 million.

Whereas now it expects total revenue for the full year to be between $275 million and $300 million, including the Camperdown business which generated $1.9 million of revenue in the first half. This will be a year on year decline of 8.8% to 16.4%.

It has also downgraded its normalised group EBITDA margin guidance from between 22% and 25% to 18% and 22%. This reflects lower forecast revenue and increased investment in marketing and the China team over the coming period.

How will the market react?
Whilst this is clearly a very disappointing result, the market was largely expecting a significant decline in both revenue and profits.

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts were expecting Bellamy’s to post a 29% decline in sales to $124.8 million and a 27% decline in EBITDA to $25.5 million. On a normalised basis the company’s result beat the broker’s estimates.

However, there’s a chance that the downgrade to its guidance could offset this and put its shares under pressure today.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-infant-formula-maker-bellamys-idUSKCN1QG07N

China delays, sales slowdown hit Australian infant formula maker Bellamy's
Tom Westbrook

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Infant formula company Bellamy’s Australia Ltd on Wednesday said its half-year profit fell almost two thirds, hit by regulatory delays in China and falling domestic sales as it lost market share, sending its shares sharply lower

The former market darling has been waiting for 14 months for clearance to sell its products directly in its biggest growth market, and said the foregone sales would shrink annual revenue and margins would be squeezed as marketing costs rose.

The delay, for which the firm has no clear explanation, underscores the regulatory challenges of doing business in China and has left Bellamy’s to rely almost entirely on sales via notoriously fickle Chinese shoppers in Australia.

“I don’t think the model has blown up, but the question will be: ‘Can they get the traction back?’” said Mathan Somasundaram, market portfolio strategist at stockbroker Blue Ocean Equity.

Bellamy’s shares dropped as much as 10 percent to a six-week low in early trade, before recovering to trade about 2 percent below Tuesday’s close by mid-session, while the broader market rose 0.3 percent.

The company’s flagging sales come amid a broader consumer slowdown in China which has affected firms ranging from U.S. tech behemoth Apple Inc to Australian vitamin maker Blackmores Ltd.

Bellamy’s said its net profit fell 63.7 percent to A$8.1 million ($5.8 million) in the six months ended Dec. 31.

Sales also dropped by a quarter to A$129.6 million as customers swapped to New Zealand rival a2 Milk Company Ltd, which posted a record half-year profit.

Bellamy’s Chief Executive Officer Andrew Cohen gave no firm date for finally securing permission to stock the company’s organic milk powders and formulas in shops in China, which he had previously hoped to secure by the end of 2018.

“We fully respect the process and we don’t want to take guesses about how that process is going to go on,” Cohen said.

The company was hopeful officials would audit its premises in Melbourne by the end of the year as part of the accreditation, he added.

The company said it expected full-year revenue of between A$200 million and A$300 million, compared with A$329 million in 2018.

It expected an earnings margin of between 18 percent and 22 percent, compared with a previous forecast of 22 percent to 25 percent as a rebranding effort lifts marketing costs.

Bellamy's Australia recovering nicely during March, up from around $8.20 to $10.48, where it is currently trading.

1H19 financial results released on 28 February were impacted by no Chinese-label formula sales due to SAMR Registration Delay, the reduction of $10M of excess trade inventory prior to rebrand, and increased local Chinese supply from competitors.

However, it appears that there is more confidence in BAL moving forward and the second half of FY 2019 looks far more promising.

Motley Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/03/15/the-bellamys-share-price-is-up-42-in-march/

The Bellamy’s share price is up 42% in March
James Mickleboro | March 15, 2019

The Bellamy’s Australia Ltd (ASX: BAL) share price is having another sensational day on the market.

In early afternoon trade the organic infant formula and baby food company’s shares are up almost 8% to $11.59.

This gain means the Bellamy’s share price has rocketed a massive 42% since the start of the month.

Why is the Bellamy’s share price surging higher again?
With no news out of the company, today’s gain is a bit of a mystery. But there are a number of potential catalysts that could be behind the move.

One is a reduction in the company’s short interest level. Short sellers have successfully targeted Bellamy’s over the last 12 months but appear to be moving onto new opportunities now.

ASIC’s latest short position report shows that Bellamy’s short interest had fallen to 9.3% as of March 8. That was down from 10.3% a day earlier and its lowest level since January. When short sellers close positions they need to buy shares to do so, which could explain the increased demand on the buy side.

Another potential catalyst could be speculation that the company is on the brink of receiving its SAMR accreditation which will allow the company to sell its Chinese-labelled products on mainland China.

Bellamy’s has been waiting for SAMR accreditation since the end of 2017, meaning it has been unable to benefit fully from the growing demand for infant formula in the country like rival A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M).

The reason investors appear to believe that it could be granted soon is likely to be down to the company launching its high impact campaign in China this month. This campaign will be supported by A-grade ambassadors and key opinion leaders including Stefanie Sun, Zilin Zhang, and Niangao Mama. These three ambassadors have a combined following of over 55 million on Chinese social media platforms.

Bellamy's Australia share price down significantly during April on recent analyst downgrades and delay in the approval of Bellamy's SAMR application, which will enable it to sell its products in mainland China.

A little disappointing considering that A2M has been experiencing a bullish share price this month, particularly in the last few trading sessions.

However, it looks like BAL may be bottoming out around $9.30.

Is the Bellamy’s stock price in the buy zone?

Bellamy’s had a modest earnings period, but its strategic changes stabilised investor returns.

Rebranding plans and changes to its infant formula are expected to win over Chinese consumers.

However, Bellamy’s is still struggling to secure its SAMR accreditation which hinders it from being able to compete with A2 Milk through Diagou channels.

My share for May Tipping Comp and also included in 2019 year comp

Fingers crossed!!

Bellamy’s Australia has finished the day 15.6% higher at $11.12 after receiving SAMR approval for its new Bellamy's-ViPlus series which the company said will target the premium segment of the offline channel and initially focus on Tier 3 and 4 cities in China.

If you like BAL its cheap, right on the long term bottom trend line.
~

So_Cynical said:

If you like BAL its cheap, right on the long term bottom trend line.
~
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On 28th June BAL was $8.3, on 10 July it was $8.6. More interestingly see the volume rose by 30%.
Lets see what is going on here.

Miner said:

Lets see what is going on here.

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Just snooping around here ….

I don't buy many Stocks over 10 cents so this one is not on my watch … however, if you hold it Miner, I think it is starting to look like a tidy recovery from the recent down trend. good luck with it.

barney said:

Just snooping around here ….

I don't buy many Stocks over 10 cents so this one is not on my watch … however, if you hold it Miner, I think it is starting to look like a tidy recovery from the recent down trend. good luck with it.

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Fantastic chart and signals including today's uptrend . Many thanks @barney and @So_Cynical

ASX announcement today

16/09/2019 8:03:56 AM 65 Bellamy's enters Scheme Implementation with Mengniu


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Last 12 months have been a bit of a roller coaster. Given they traded as high as $23 eighteen months ago I guess todays $13.25 takeover price could be seen as bitter sweet for some longer term holders.

ASX announcement by Bellamy today

15/11/2019 9:03:10 AM Scheme receives FIRB approval

Today after the Foreign Investment Review Board approved its takeover of the China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (Mengniu).

The September 16 takeover bid is worth $13.25 per share being a $12.65 per share cash offer plus a 60 cents per share fully franked special dividend to be paid prior to the scheme’s implementation





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On December 24th, 2019, Bellamy's Australia Limited (BAL) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between BAL and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in BAL by a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, being Wise Journey Pty Ltd.