AWB - AWB Limited

[Dr Zoot]

I did a search for AWB but it seems that no one wants to know about the Australian Wheat Board!!

Do you think that they will get over this current enquiry hurdle? Surely the fundamentals of the company will be unaffected ... a couple of heads might roll, but they are still selling lots of wheat.

 

[Duckman#72]

In my opinion, AWB has fundamental philosophical issues in the way the company is structured - how can they act in the best interest of the graingrowers and also the best interest of the shareholders. I don't think they can.

This might be a growing murmur - as I see on the front page of The Australian last week there was a story debating whether the "Single Price Flooring" that AWB operate under is actually effective and efficient. Australia's single largest graingrower is calling for the markets to be thrown open.

There maybe more turmoil and chaos at AWB headquarters for many months to come.

Duckman

 

[Julia]

Re: AWB - AWB Limited: Memory Problems

I've been feeling awfully sorry for Mr Trevor Flugge, Chairman (or is it now ex-Chairman) of AWB.

The poor chap is completely deaf in one ear and has minimal hearing in the other.

He can never remember where he puts his diary, continually loses it, and thus has no idea when he was where.

The same memory problems mean that he can't remember the minimal details he may just possibly have heard with his minimal hearing capacity, particularly as his hearing problem is exacerbated within the noise of a meeting.

He can't understand computers and thus cannot access emails sent to him or reply to same.

If this were some nobody on the dole, they would be given intensive assistance to make them "job-ready".

Mr Flugge received about $1M to spend 10 months in Iraq doing something very vague for the Australian government.

Julia

 

[phoenixrising]

Re: AWB - AWB Limited: Memory Problems

I've been feeling awfully sorry for Mr Trevor Flugge, Chairman (or is it now ex-Chairman) of AWB.

The poor chap is completely deaf in one ear and has minimal hearing in the other.

He can never remember where he puts his diary, continually loses it, and thus has no idea when he was where.

The same memory problems mean that he can't remember the minimal details he may just possibly have heard with his minimal hearing capacity, particularly as his hearing problem is exacerbated within the noise of a meeting.

He can't understand computers and thus cannot access emails sent to him or reply to same.

If this were some nobody on the dole, they would be given intensive assistance to make them "job-ready".

Mr Flugge received about $1M to spend 10 months in Iraq doing something very vague for the Australian government.

Julia

LOL a combination of Bondy (Alan Bond I can't remember any financials) and Skase (cough,cough, i can't come back to Oz from my Spanish island to face the music).

Hard to say if "one desk" is best or not.China is adopting it with iron ore contract negotiations, as did Japan in the 80's for Coal. Some of our coal producers went broke with very low offers, hard to imagine now, resources on the nose then.

ABB (au barley board) has similar contacts and produce could also do the job.
GNC (graincorp) maybe also, is in the grain handling/storage area, could adapt to marketing if push comes to shove.

AWB may be a buy at some stage, could bounce back, but risky.

 

[mime]

Does anyone know how important the wheat contract with Iraq was to the company? I heard that the US will suffer more drought in the coming years so the price of wheat will go up. I think this could be a awesome opportunity to purchase shares to a great price. Of course more research would be a good idea.

Edit: The current S.P is close to it's float price. Wouldn't this indicate it's been over sold?

 

[guru]

Interestingly the stock has done a double bottom, stop loss would be at 3.60 and clear skys if it can breach 4.20 resistence with wheat price on its way up and the quality of Australian wheat.

 

[twojacks28]

hmmmmmm ... interesting topic. AWB is legally irresponsible however when you are dealing with these kind of countries paying kickbacks and other things isnt uncommon as they are all corrupt. Iraq is not going to buy Australian wheat through AWB so they have lost substanial profits for this year as that was their biggest contract. Will be interesting to follow.

Twojacks28

 

[twojacks28]

what do you guys think about AWB's future? will it improve or go downhill even more?

 

[mime]

AWB is getting slammed today in a rising market. I don't know what to do. ****

Surly the stock has been over sold. They still have a monoply huge earning potential.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Well seems AWB is bad news .Its possibly as simple as that .Unless they are tied up with a Afghani scandal also.........sorrry just trying to scare thou.

 

[alankew]

ABC news said that it is the effects of the worst drought.

 

[bug]

All the agribusiness stocks got slammed with the latest drought news.

At today's prices, AWB has a 10%!! dividend and p/e of 9. That strikes me as a great buying point. The bad news about Iraq and the drought are obviously being factored in, but even this has its limit eventually.

The payments made by AWB to Iraq have the hallmarks of 'commissions' sought by other governments in other countries where western companies do business. What about the extra $100 million Woodside, Hardman and other Australian oil companies agreed to pay the new Mauritanian government to continue their business there? AWB did not fund terror, but really paid kickbacks to get a hold of the Iraqi wheat business.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

All the agribusiness stocks got slammed with the latest drought news.

*At today's prices, AWB has a 10%!! dividend and p/e of 9. That strikes me as a great buying point.

**The payments made by AWB to Iraq have the hallmarks of 'commissions' sought by other governments in other countries where western companies do business. What about the extra $100 million Woodside, Hardman and other Australian oil companies agreed to pay the new Mauritanian government to continue their business there? AWB did not fund terror, but really paid kickbacks to get a hold of the Iraqi wheat business.

*Well I watched this share today like a hawk , likewise GNC (I prefer GNC @ the moment ) ,whether it can sustain 10% divi is open to question ,but to halt the sentiment against this share,it makes me sit up and think geeee how much more bad news can this share take? Interesting share for my long term portfolio sector. I wonder if they will change their name soon aswell as their boardroom .......


**Re: above comment HDR/WPL ....the oil scenario is slightly different to that of AWB involvement in the UN sanctions in Iraq.Lets not forget AWB where not the only ones doing these back-handers and this form of payments are the norm in the Middle East ,Africa ,& South America .
Unfortunately the white rabbit pulled out was AWB .....funny how Halliburton went through the revolving doors.

 

[pods]

I thought the price increases in Weat would have been a good thing... much like oil going up is to oil resource companies.

Although AWB may be selling less wheat, it'll be selling what it does have at a higher price. Selling less wheat may mean lower costs. Selling at a higher price it will contrast against the less wheat, although by how much you couldn't be sure. Basically, i thought selling wheat, at higher price and incuring less costs would have been a good thing :/

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

I thought the price increases in Weat would have been a good thing... much like oil going up is to oil resource companies.

Although AWB may be selling less wheat, it'll be selling what it does have at a higher price. Selling less wheat may mean lower costs. Selling at a higher price it will contrast against the less wheat, although by how much you couldn't be sure. Basically, i thought selling wheat, at higher price and incuring less costs would have been a good thing :/

I bought the Fin-Review on saturday just to read the snippet on AWB/GNC's drop in share price p.11 states Tom Keene(GNC) is still optimistic on forecasting a profit of $34>$37million for 2006 fiscal yr. Me thinks how come? is it because GNC have diversified compared to AWB ,or is because wheat futures might rise? Lastly WTOrg is a noose around AWB,so its still a risky concern,and Cole's report/findings haaaaaaaaaa what a happy bunch of campers they all must be passing the hot potato around @ AWB.
Sorry I'm no economist just a humble conehead! :homer:

 

[RichKid]

AWB looks like it may have found a temporary bottom, if not a major bottom, but it is far too early to say imo, we'll need to see what happens over the next few weeks. The sellers could well be exhausted after what appears to be the initial capitulation phase in this turnaround.

 

[Young Gun]

I thought the price increases in Weat would have been a good thing... much like oil going up is to oil resource companies.

Although AWB may be selling less wheat, it'll be selling what it does have at a higher price. Selling less wheat may mean lower costs. Selling at a higher price it will contrast against the less wheat, although by how much you couldn't be sure. Basically, i thought selling wheat, at higher price and incuring less costs would have been a good thing :/

Pod , increases in wheat prices are good for the stock however the AWB has hedged its wheat for the next 12 months and as a result the price for gain in about $300 a tonne and AWB has forward sold it for $200 a tonne.

The massive sell down on the stock is due to 3 things:
- Iraq kickbacks episode
- Drought contiunaly reducing the forecasted harvest for this financial year
- AWB forward selling its grain and as a result farmers are not happy that the prices they are receiveing a below market price.
- Uncertaininty if the single desk monopoly will continue
- Uncertainintiy if AWB will have to pay a large fine to the government as a result of its actions
- Uncertanity regarding a large outstanding tax bill that may / may not need to be paid
- Uncertaininity about the management
- Uncertaininity about AWB being able to sell its grain internationality due to its tarnished reputation

 

[Ken]

Dividend Policy

The directors expect to continue to pay regular dividends to B Class shareholders (depending on the current circumstances of AWB Limited) consistent with AWB Limited’s corporate objective of providing B Class shareholders with a reasonable commercial rate of return.

It is intended that these dividends will be maintained at a relatively stable level. However, the actual level of dividends payable in any given year and the associated level of franking may vary and will depend on a number of factors, including changes in taxation legislation, AWB Limited’s earnings and its cash requirements at the time.

It is intended that future dividends for each financial year will be paid in two instalments. It is likely that an interim dividend will be payable around July and a final dividend will be payable around December. It is anticipated that the interim dividend will generally be larger than the final dividend, reflecting the fact that a higher proportion of AWB Limited’s profit is earned in the first half of the financial year.

AWB Limited will review, on an annual basis, the appropriateness of a dividend reinvestment plan for AWB Limited.


one would think if there was a case where a dividend would be cut it would be now.

Westpac broking have an avoid recommendation.

AWE closed at 2.45. anyone looked at it. Seems cheap if they keep the dividend.

how low do people think it will go?

 

[barney]

Dividend Policy

The directors expect to continue to pay regular dividends to B Class shareholders (depending on the current circumstances of AWB Limited) consistent with AWB Limited’s corporate objective of providing B Class shareholders with a reasonable commercial rate of return.

It is intended that these dividends will be maintained at a relatively stable level. However, the actual level of dividends payable in any given year and the associated level of franking may vary and will depend on a number of factors, including changes in taxation legislation, AWB Limited’s earnings and its cash requirements at the time.

It is intended that future dividends for each financial year will be paid in two instalments. It is likely that an interim dividend will be payable around July and a final dividend will be payable around December. It is anticipated that the interim dividend will generally be larger than the final dividend, reflecting the fact that a higher proportion of AWB Limited’s profit is earned in the first half of the financial year.

AWB Limited will review, on an annual basis, the appropriateness of a dividend reinvestment plan for AWB Limited.


one would think if there was a case where a dividend would be cut it would be now.

Westpac broking have an avoid recommendation.

AWE closed at 2.45. anyone looked at it. Seems cheap if they keep the dividend.

how low do people think it will go?

Hi Ken, Maybe its the possibility that AWB will not go much higher in the medium term that is the biggest deterrant..... $2 inthe short -medium term would not surprise me, but I'm only guessing, Cheers Barney.

 

[Ken]

bought $2.47 sold 2.61...

thats enough for me at this point, its raining today so i think thats why people are buying... lol...