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Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group


CR at such a substantial discount lowers confidence in my opinion.
Also, it is a 20% increase in shares on issue - I think this is massive!

It may not go to the prices I suggested - but that is when it would be a better buy in my opinion. Just a hold for the current time.
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group


A bit disappointed they go that low I thought 6.5-7c would be idea but in any case they need the cash to expand cardicel production to sell into Europe plus the FDA approval coming early next year.

So they raise money for the right reason...I am going to take up my full entitlement -
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

VSntchr said:
Also, it is a 20% increase in shares on issue - I think this is massive!
Click to expand...

The number of shares is irrelevant, assuming the market capitalisation remains within logical bounds of the dilution after the rights issue price. As I said earlier, the fully diluted price is 7.9 cents. There will always be people who are in it for short term or just a trade who will have an over-reaction like you did calling for 5 or 6 cents and bail out sending the price below the theoretical diluted price.

No doubt a contributing factor today is the market being down so the price dropping to the low 7's can be expected.

This is equivalent to about a 7% drop if there wasn't a rights issue. Let's face it, the share price has been in downturn so allowing for the rights issue announcement, today's drop on a down day is probably a logical continuation of the 20% or so fall over the last 3 weeks as optimism from the 3 Sept announcement wears off.

I see nothing untoward in the way the price has reacted to the announcement and the lower market overall, but then I don't own them so can look at it a it more rationally.


Yes, I think the 40% discount is a bit over the top, but it may have been a condition of the underwriting agreement, particularly as the price has fallen 20% in the last 3 weeks. You are correct in that the money will be used positively. Not at all like drilling a dry hole.

Cheers
Country Lad
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

VSntchr said:
What about for those cashless folks who don't take up the entitlement?
Click to expand...

I hold the view that any person trading/investing in shares should hold funds for these or other type of occurrences affecting their investments. If they don't allow for such risks, then they probably should not be trading shares.
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

craft said:
??? The ex date is not until the 25th.
Click to expand...

sorry about the obscure post - have a bit more time now.

Repricing for the rights issue won’t occur until the ex-date being the 25th.

The theoretical value will only be 7.9cents if the price at COB tomorrow is the same as time of announcement ie 8.5 cents.
(8.5*5+1*5)/6

If the price at COB tomorrow is the same as today’s close of 7.3 cents then the theoretical price on the ex date will be 6.9 cents.

(7.3*5+1*5)/6


Todays drop was all just market sentiment - the theoretical repricing occurs on Ex date.
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

VSntchr said:
What about for those cashless folks who don't take up the entitlement?
Click to expand...

You will be diluted by 20% with no benefits and Andrew Forrest end up with 50% of that allocation
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

VSntchr hope you find cash for entitlement
After Monday panic sell ... Today is panic buy for people
Fear of missing out...

Ticks all the box from
Here... Cash up 10-12m for euro cardiocel expansion
FDA approval expect 2014 and we got cash for that process
Cardiocel reach another milestone with 5 years without issues
More fuel for FDA approval and the potential of
Coridon vaccine surprise in next 2 years in a little while Ahz will owns
60% of Coridon
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

ROE said:
VSntchr hope you find cash for entitlement
After Monday panic sell ... Today is panic buy for people
Fear of missing out...
Click to expand...

As happens in most cases with these smaller stocks, the price drops as soon as there is a rights issue announcement regardless of the ex date. The price then moves around and people get in before the ex date which is what happened yesterday, up 8% (ROE's point about fear of missing out)

Smart move by the company to make today's announcement so that there is positive stuff on the ex date and the price moved up nicely.

Cheers
Country Lad
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

Agree with the analysis ROE and Country Lad. I doubled up yesterday to take advantage of the re-pricing.
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group


Ive got the cash
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

Country Lad said:
Good, with a bit of luck you can buy some 9 cent shares for 5 cents.
Click to expand...

Looks like my thoughts of a potential drop have not followed through to reality and the stock is back into a solid upswing...

Time to sit back and enjoy
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

I have a different take...after a crazy run, the market start to question its funding issues so it pause and reflect..
AHZ answer the funding issues and a brief panic start but the whole pause was about funding issues so why the panic.?..

After a good night sleep people said now I get it ...all cash up...ready to hit the big market and revenues will start to flow in quick and fast in not too distance future ....FDA approval in 2014 ....more good news on cardiocel 5 years mark....this business is going places....We did a boo boo load it up again for fear of missing out -

Next 2-5 years is the most exciting years to own this baby, a few anticipated good news are expected and hopefully FDA approval start the good news season....
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group


I think your line of thinking is pretty spot on...
I also think that with a stock like AHZ - alot of traders that had no idea about the company were involved and any announcement about a CR made them dump the lot.
Ive been in since 2.6c (lucky to find it at that stage) and have bought (and unfortunately sold - need cash sometimes!!) at many prices over the last 6 or so months.
I'm getting ready to set the current parcel (plus the ones ill get next month) in my bottom draw and check back monthly from now on...its too wild to watch and the ups and downs are emotionally unsettling
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

All I say is thanks to those who paniced and/or completely misunderstood the issue. Doubled up and averaged down my overall position as a result, up over 20% today on the half i bought 2 days ago, will happily take up the rights offer and continue to hold for the future.
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group


Ditto I got another sizeable parcel at 0.075 right before it went back up to around 0.09ish
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group

Having never taken part in a capital raising before, I am a bit confused about the process of applying for shortfall shares.

Reading through the offer document, it's not clear how and when/where the payment for shortfall shares would occur. Just BPay/Cheque for the lot and get a refund later? Anyone able to provide any insight from their experiences?
 
Re: AHZ - Allied Healthcare Group


Judging by the price vs the entitlement price, I really dont think there is going to be a shortfall. In any event, the Forrest's will be taking 50% of any shortfall.

If you are feeling lucky then just work out the amount you would be prepared to purchase/can afford to (don't over commit yourself just because there is a positive gap AT THE MOMENT!)...and deposit that amount. Any excess amount will be refunded.
That is my understanding of the process...
 
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