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AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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BrightGreenGlow said:
AUT was meant to be in the ASX200 after the re-balance... just checking the asx200 now and cannot find AUT... what happened? did I miss something?
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I just googled the ASX 200 and the most recent list of companies I found was for November 2010. It needs to be urgently updated to reflect the December re-balance.
 
i have been with AUT since 16c, topping up at 24c, thean again at 75c, and again today at $2.10. i have not sold any off yet, and based on direction, i plan to hold for a while still. not looking forward to CGT!

what a fantastic forum, and thanks to the constant posts from many investors which reflect a STRONG understanding of the company, and continuously show sound opinions (for and against at times), based on solid research and good argument.

big thumbs up on the AUT thread and the site in general.
 
Well, how far AUT will or won't retrace is anyone's guess, but right now, judging by the spread of the Guppy multi moving averages, it's as extended as much as at any time in the last year - semi-log chart attached. ( Because of the huge gains made by AUT, I suggest that a semi-log scale is more appropriate than linear for viewing the chart)
With the benefit of hindsight, the best times to have bought during the last year were when the short term (red) group bounced into the long term (white). Conversely, buying when they were extended, like now, would have resulted in a period of going sideways.
In the absence of an unforeseen event, such as a collapse in the oil price, the fundamentals point to a continuation of the pattern, so we can anticipate a period of consolidation to give the red and white mma groups a chance to converge again. At what price this will occur at is a guess, but $1.90 wouldn't surprise me.
By the way, that looks like an "evening star doji" reversal pattern with the latest three candlesticks.
(The green line is the 200 day sma)
 

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i think it gets updated this month..

i am waiting for my super fund to update also. they say its not in the asx 200 yet or something.
 
In the announcement it said the re-balance would be at the end of business 17th December... last Friday.. mmm should be all good. If AUT ever gets near $2 again im gonna jump on it like a spider-monkey!
 
BrightGreenGlow said:
In the announcement it said the re-balance would be at the end of business 17th December... last Friday.. mmm should be all good. If AUT ever gets near $2 again im gonna jump on it like a spider-monkey!
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spider monkey...
n.
Any of several tropical American monkeys of the genus Ateles, having long legs and a long prehensile tail and lacking a thumb.

Has anyone got any thoughts on the production announcement made yesterday??
 
AUT was just on the Business Channel and was listed up a the #1 gainer for 2010 so far in the ASX200. Awesome stuff was pleased to note they are actually in the top200 now.
 
That's fantastic news John, regarding AUT as the biggest gainer in 2010 in the asx200.

As for the production figures, I think they were very good. It's good to see Kowalik up and flowing. 2011 should be a cracker. I'll hold my breath but I wouldn't be surprised seeing the share reach $5. (depends on any further dilution after this CR).
 
cmxd said:
Good news. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates increased holding.
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Not necessarily good news. They have been manipulating the SP by selling down and rebuying on the lows. I doubt they have finished this action. Probably some young gun will have a new Porsche for Xmas out of this. They are no asset to the short term position for LYC. Their pump and dump actions should be outlawed.

The only good thing they bring to the share is that their dumping does provide an opportunity for long termers to enter at a good price.

I'm holding long term on this one but do the odd trade to gain a few more freebies.
 

I've had a closer look at the Form 604 and note the following:
the notice covers the period 29/7/10 to 17/12/10
during that time 4 subsidiaries of JP Morgan have purchsed over 7.29m shares
for us Aussie holders the most significant purchase was JP Morgan Securities Australia Limited who on 17/12/10 purchased 2,210,346 shares at $A2.18.

I assume that this purchase was made in response to AUT entering the ASX 200.
I would expect more Form 604s to be lodged soon as all fund managers take a position in relation to AUT
Whether this proves to be good or bad only time will tell. IMHO fund managers who invest across the ASX 200 on behalf of clients are pretty conservative and are unlikely to pump and dump shares. Their stratergy is more likely is to hold and wait which probably suits given that as well as AUT they will be holding the big banks, the big miners and the big retailers.
I am a holder and enjoying the ride
 
nioka said:
Not necessarily good news. They have been manipulating the SP by selling down and rebuying on the lows.
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I agree in general, but they haven't just been doing that. They bought 2.2M recently at $2.18, so they are not going to want to sell those in a hurry.
 
Kremmen said:
I agree in general, but they haven't just been doing that. They bought 2.2M recently at $2.18, so they are not going to want to sell those in a hurry.
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I guess I am biased against them after seeing what they have done with other stocks. Someone is selling down AUT these last days and bots are active, which means that it is not just the small investors profit taking for funding Xmas.
 
Kremmen said:
I agree in general, but they haven't just been doing that. They bought 2.2M recently at $2.18, so they are not going to want to sell those in a hurry.
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Looks like JPM was buying on behalf if index funds which *had* to buy them as they became part of ASX 200
 
skyQuake said:
Looks like JPM was buying on behalf if index funds which *had* to buy them as they became part of ASX 200
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Have a close look at the list of their purchases. Not all were bought on market and some were the result of the "bonus" issue to "sophisticateds". What you have to watch for now is who sold down these last few days. Was it them profit taking to make the results for this quarter good. It still smells like a pump and dump with establishing good financials and minimising tax the true objective.
 

Absolutely agree that funds like JPM could have been selling down to make their 1/2 yearly's look good and then buy again.
But to me, that would be pretty smart with AUT considering the position AUT is in for growth next year.
To me, the current retrace was inevitable and considering the confidence in next year, a great chance to get more. I'm not experienced enough to calculate projected SP's but according to other respected posters we are far above where we were considering being at end of 2010 and I can't see it going bACK TO $1.59.
Thanks for everyones input, Merry Christmas.:xmaswave
 
From Commsec "US crude oil prices rose to two-year highs on Wednesday. A sharp 5.3 million barrel slide in US crude oil inventories supported prices. US crude stockpiles have fallen by 19 million barrels in the past three weeks. The Nymex crude oil contract rose by US66 cents or 0.7pct to US$90.48 a barrel. "
 
I suspect its the instos selling off. They can sell off prior to tranche if they have existing holdings to dispose off and then they retain the new ones they just got at a substantial discount.

As far as JP Morgan, i dont think they have been churning too much or we would have seen a lot more variation in substantial holdings notices.

As far as all the technical analysis. For my mind the best buying point was not the dips it was the 12 month low. AUT has been a strong buy and a strong buy and hold stock for the last 12 months. Anyone that couldnt see that has some serious learning to do. Right now its a red hot buy imo. Price $2 off its high, with valuation of $3.38. And serious growth plans for the coming 12 months. The only stock i see presently with even similar gains possible is SEA.

right now i will probably get bagged for this but i still see big big gains for the coming 12-36 months assuming a mild US, and global recovery continues.

QE2 is ending and QE3 will need discussing seriously by april. But right now the outlook is somewhat ok for the US, and the PIGS are in serious trouble but presently stable.

The bigger issue will be what action the US takes re continueing employment growth without dramatically increasing govt debt.
 

Hi sharejon,

don't think that it will (depend upon level of CRs) if they continue to make 'accretive' acquisitions. The key is NAV per share. This is undoubtedly the best time for them to buy additional land as they can look forward to the re-categorisation of 3p reserves. Note that they were mindful to stress 'more of the same' - upping the % of what they have, addition of nearby (oilier? land) and same operator. Nice and easy to value.
 
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