Hopefully both are soon. I cant answer that .
Q4 was always going to be the cash flow quarter, but having said that, that was prior to both the 3 phase fracs, the highly restricted chokes and the delays in getting frac crews that are ever present now.
So hopefully both soon.
In relation to sp, Euroz apparently put out an update today. I havent seen it yet, but apparently it values AUt at 2.80 due to continued great results.
Hopefully both are soon. I cant answer that .
Q4 was always going to be the cash flow quarter, but having said that, that was prior to both the 3 phase fracs, the highly restricted chokes and the delays in getting frac crews that are ever present now.
So hopefully both soon.
In relation to sp, Euroz apparently put out an update today. I havent seen it yet, but apparently it values AUt at 2.80 due to continued great results.
Key point is they believe we have repaid 73% off well costs with an average of 4.6 months production. Which equates to an average repayment time by my clacs of 6.1 months. This is staggeringly impresssive.
Its a pretty significant milestone, so it would warrant an announcment. It may run slightly late, due to frac crew delays and pipeline capacity issues, but it wont be much out.
It makes sense that it would be on a total basis rather then a per well. But to my knowledge there has not been an official announcment on that issue.
From the latest Euroz report , gives a good estimate of where well repayments are up to. View attachment 39912
Key point is they believe we have repaid 73% off well costs with an average of 4.6 months production. Which equates to an average repayment time by my clacs of 6.1 months. This is staggeringly impresssive.
AgreeAgreed that the payback rate is impressive. Just a few points and queries on the Euroz table:-
a) The number of months of production and the volumes/revenue shown are only up to the end of September, as far as I can tell. This means that we already have a further 2 months of production & revenue to add on.
AgreeEven allowing for a 30% decline on the first 4.6 months average production figures, I reckon Hilcorp may by now have got their total costs back for the 8 farmout wells, assuming Euroz's estimate of costs and revenues is accurate.
Agree and shortage of frac crews would undoubtably be driving costs up abit + 3 phase fracsHilcorp have got quicker and quicker (and therefore cheaper) at drilling the wells, but then recently got slower and slower at fraccing them!! Presumably these 2 roughly balance out and the Euroz estimate of US$8m per well is o.k.
They generally quote it on the document and its nearly always 12:1 or 6:1b) Not sure what Euroz's "running total -boe" represents in their table. Is this concentrate + gas to give a "barrels of oil equivalent"? If it includes the gas, what uplift (25%?) and conversion of gas to boe's did Euroz use? They have used a "spot" price per boe of US$82, which seems pretty high compared to average oil & gas prices in the last few months.
Undoubtably all partners picked up the bill. Duster and successes are shared amongst the partners. Only negligence and a settlement would alter that.c) The table excludes the Kowalik well. Whilst I believe the partners are paying their respective share for the more recent attempt at Kowalik, I don't know who picked up the bill for the first attempt? If that was Hilcorp, then I guess they want those costs recovered too.
True, those insto sellers will imo be replaced by fund purchasers now we are in the ASX 200. Lots of positve news over the past month has not been priced in imo. Right now imo we should be bouncing around $1.70 - $1.80.Anyway, it's all looking very good for AUT at the moment and I think we will continue to see very good progress in the SP. There is every chance of $1-90 + per share before the end of 2010.....
Thats my understanding , but i cant find it in print.I think you would find in the original farmin announcement that it was the total cost of the original agreed wells that Hillcorp could recoup.
Agree and sure hope so, and whilst its a significant announcment that should be made on the day it happens, my bet is the temptation to deliver a nice quarterly report will see it in the Q activities report.That is why there is over 100% on some. Remember that there is still the problem elephant well that will have costs that are yet to be covered, Kowlik. However that should be covered now by the ones that have more than payed their way. We can expect a notice to that effect any time.That's how I see it.
It's great. The thing that surprises me is that EKA has stalled, given that 5/8 of those are shared with EKA+AWE. EKA's profit/share on the Sugarloaf ones is about the same per share as AUT.
that's the way i like to work things out nice & simple
NPV10 $15m x 130 net wells (10500 net acres at 80 acre spacings) = $1.95b
the well spacing in time will probably come down to 40 acre spacings
NPV10 $15m x 260 net wells (10500 net acres at 40 acre spacings) = $3.9b
imo we will probably end up with about 15000 net acres
NPV10 $15m x 375 net wells (15000 net acres at 40 acre spacings) = $5.625b
now divide those totals by 320m shares (doesn't matter which one you choose) then you can see the future potential of AUT.
Did some searching and found the farm out announcement, free carrier on 7 wells and 3 fracs, 10 wells total on production, 6 sugarloaf, 1 ipamema, 3 longhorn. So 8 mill on 7 wells + 3 fracs (no idea how much, 4 mill?) Total to pay 68mill. Total paid back (according to the table above) 46.4mill. Another few wells flowing to sales though now missing from the table. Another 2-3 months before cash flow? + reserves due reserve quarter (reading another forum).
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090921/pdf/31ktkyl130qc7w.pdf
Love to be corrected if I am missing something, only new so very rough understanding, hoping to learn more! Thanks to all the posters on this thread!
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?