AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

condog · 30 July 2010

Kremmen, i get what your saying, but this is always a forseeable proposition in SPP's imo in the ones ive been involved with.

Thats why i said just after the SPP when it was hovering at 74-76c, why bother with filling out the forms when you can buy it on market + or - a cent and not risk scale back.

My guess is the non believers waited to see a margin and the believers bought up.

buysellmestuffed · 30 July 2010

volume 786,564 $641,936 125 trades

for such a hot stock why is the $$$$ so low , i would have thought that it would sell so quick .

condog · 30 July 2010

As weve tried to say for 3 weeks straight its relatively tightly held and responds to news rather then traders graphs.

Clearly on the back of a CR and SPP plus with recent gains its loosened up slightly, but weve also had a little dry spell of news about to be broken, by Kowalick, T3, Patino spud and reserves upgrade.

condog · 30 July 2010

MIR

From report approx 20 weels by endo fo 2010

20 * 16M NPV = 320M , 320M / 253.6M = $1.26 ring any bells

Endo of 2011 30 more = 30 * 16 = 480M 480M / 253M = $1.89 extra
Alternatively 6.3 c per well using crude averages

1.89 + 1.26 = $3.15 Target end of 2011

50 in 2012 = 800M , 800M / 253M = 3.15 , 3.15+ 3.15 = 6.30 Target minus a bit for declines, inneficiencies etc, but clearly the potential is there.

Alternatively current mcap = .82 * 253.6M = $208M
Projected NPV mcap end of 2010 at 20 * 16M = 320M
Additional value to be added in 5 months is $92M

92M/ 253.6 = 36c per share by end of 2011

Cross check against Euroz and Hartleys valuations
320M / 253.6 = $1.26 pretty damn close imo

Then look forward to 2011 using this method 1.89 / 12 months = roughly 15.75c per calendar month .

Any which way you calculate it fundamentally on the facts we have available it looks fantastic imo.

mir · 30 July 2010

condog
the other thing I'm waiting for in the reserves upgrade, is the updated NPV per well , this should also increase as the old NPV was based on wells 2000' to 3000' in length & half the flow of the more recent wells. so you might have to update your calc's.

Slipperz · 30 July 2010

Back in again team!

In fact I scored pole position on open this morning with my lil baggie of 50K.

I was kinda hoping the quarterly would light a fire under the SP to brighten up my weekend but it turns out not to be the case.

Anyhoo it's gotta break out of this sideways channel sometime and imho it's gonna break up not down so rather in than out.

Will probably top up again once we break resistance.

Have a nice weekend all I'm off on the cans....GO THE ROOSTERS... Condog game on!

nunthewiser · 30 July 2010

Slipperz said:
Back in again team!

In fact I scored pole position on open this morning with my lil baggie of 50K.

!

You got a stoploss point in mind mate or you just going to hold regardless of direction even if it breaks south ?

condog · 30 July 2010

Slipperz said:
Anyhoo it's gotta break out of this sideways channel sometime and imho it's gonna break up not down so rather in than out.

Will probably top up again once we break resistance.

Have a nice weekend all I'm off on the cans....GO THE ROOSTERS... Condog game on!

Got to agree on AUT breaking up, nice bull flag forming, fundamentals well and truly in place.

But not the ROOSTERS bit, go the Hayne plane / train.

justiceotp · 30 July 2010

Hey I have a quick question. I added to my holding of AUT today and and was sold a heap of small parcels of stock in lots between 50 and 80 shares, why would someone be dripping stock onto the sell side like this?

Huitzii · 30 July 2010

justiceotp said:
Hey I have a quick question. I added to my holding of AUT today and and was sold a heap of small parcels of stock in lots between 50 and 80 shares, why would someone be dripping stock onto the sell side like this?

I was watching this happen aswell and I thought it may have been someone trying to open a stop loss in a slow cunning manner as the trades that I saw were .005 under current market
Next week if we get the reserves upgrade it could be a good week....I hope
I hold AUT
DYOR

condog · 30 July 2010

A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up. Report them - bots are the evil enemy.

nunthewiser · 30 July 2010

condog said:
A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up. Report them - bots are the evil enemy.

Oh dear.......

these "evil" bots are merely an automated broker program for hiding orders.Someone may have a large parcel or ANY parcel actually for sale/to buy and it is a program provided by various brokers so they can do there order without exposeing it.

On a low volume stock like AUT sometimes it pays to use this method so you dont scare the buyers off with larger sell orders

anyone can do it IB provides this service.

there are numerous threads on ASF in regards to this practise.

nothin "evil" or conspiratory about it .

on a side note todays main VOLUME action was around the lows of the day and the pumps along the way were immediatly sold into . Check Vwap and course of sales.

My target of 66-72/73 and analysis still stands at present but happy to jump on as a trade if proven wrong.

5haretrader · 30 July 2010

Nun if AUT breaks out in a bearish pattern I agree that this one will be heading south to 66cents. But AUT shareholders like the Eagleford story and fundamentally there isn't a reason for the market cap to decline in value, if anything it has alot of cacthing up to do I feel.

Should be trading in the 90s by the end of August. 20 trading days to make up 15% is reasonable to expect with the reserves upgrade, spud announcement to come etc...

condog · 31 July 2010

5haretrader said:
Should be trading in the 90s by the end of August. 20 trading days to make up 15% is reasonable to expect with the reserves upgrade, spud announcement to come etc...

Yep 36-40c to reach both broker consensi forecast and conservative fundamental valuation based on NPV or cash flow models provide on page 44-45 with very little future value built in.

36/82 = 43% imo in 5 months is my target. Looking forward to around 6-8c on average per month, obviously its more likely to come in hills and troughs.

This is only my opinion. Make no gaurauntees or implied accuracey. Do your own reseach and seek expert independent advice always.

condog · 31 July 2010

nunthewiser said:
Oh dear.......

Provocative and unnecesary.
Bots give one trader an advantage over another, which is in breach of ASIC rules and regs.
Your theroy about not scaring the seller or buyer off does not make sense. If they have a large order on and you wnat to buy or sell thier parcel its easily done in one hit. Only computer programs can act with such timing to remove such an order in time and thats my point. Similarly an ordinary person cannot place orders in such small parcels economically, hence another breach. Mark my words, IMF or Slater and Gordon will sieze on this in a few years time and go after purpetrators with a big class action like the banks are currently facing. If they are smart they will wait till the amounts are significant. But i dont feel its appropriate to harp on about this in this thread. Best in my opinion to operate on the ethical and safe side of the rule.As you say there are plenty of discussions specific to this action elsewhere.

nunthewiser said:
on a side note todays main VOLUME action was around the lows of the day and the pumps along the way were immediatly sold into . Check Vwap and course of sales.

I checked this and dont agree.

nunthewiser said:
My target of 66-72/73 and analysis still stands at present but happy to jump on as a trade if proven wrong.

What analysis? All price targets are meant to be accompanied by rational. Please provide analysis you refer to for discussion. Otherwise we have no choice but to totally disregard such targets.

condog · 31 July 2010

Agent remember a few weeks ago i said Offshore would struggle and onshore would attract the investment dollars. You questioned this and said there was no evidence etc and wonder what else i was wrong on.

More evidence for you Agent
http://www.pennenergy.com/index/pet...m/exploration/2010/07/drilling-rig_count.html

Drilling rig count climbs onshore -- offshore is a different story

July 30, 2010
By Phaedra Friend Troy

According to the weekly drilling rig report provided by Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), the number of drilling rigs working onshore and offshore North America has increased.

While the number of land rigs contracted for work in the US only rose one this week, the number is up 638 rigs year over year, bringing the number of US land rigs currently contracted to 1,586.

Most likely, the increase has been spurred by Shale drilling, with spikes being seen in the number of rigs working in shale areas. Year over year, the number of land rigs working in Texas, which contains Haynesville, Barnett and Eagle Ford Shale plays increased by 94.5 percent. In Pennsylvania, which contains the massive Marcellus Shale play, the number of rigs working increased by 91 percent year over year. With the biggest increase, the number of rigs working in North Dakota, which contains the Bakken Shale play, increased year over year by 212 percent.

Additionally, the number of Canadian land rigs contracted this week increased by 14 to 363 drilling rigs. This is an increase of 163 land rigs year over year for Canada.

Offshore the US, the number of rigs contracted for work is currently 16; which while up two from last week, is down 20 offshore rigs year over year, representing a 55.56 percent decrease in the number of drilling rigs working in the US Gulf of Mexico.

condog · 31 July 2010

Why We'll See $300 Oil by 2020 - July 30th

and at least $150 oil by 2015

For decades, the theory of peak oil—or the idea that the world either has or will soon exhaust its ability to produce more oil—was derided as a doomsday scenario too unbelievable to ever come to pass. But $147 oil and one commodity crash later, and suddenly peak oil doesn't sound so strange after all.
In fact, mounting scientific evidence suggests that peak oil will not only be a reality, but may soon be upon us, says Charles Maxwell, senior energy analyst for Weeden & Co.

With over 50 years' experience in the oil industry, Maxwell is a renowned expert in the energy markets; Institutional Investor has ranked him as the market's No. 1 oil analyst nine different years.

.....but it wouldn't surprise me if the financial side of the oil business began to tighten in 2012 anyway, in anticipation of what could be seen in 2013 and 2014.
......

Particularly, we could begin to have interest in the companies with very large reserves or smaller capitalizations, where you're buying a lot of barrels per hundred dollars of market capitalization.

Arrrrrrr hello AUT ring any bells.

Article continues at:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/217608-why-we-ll-see-300-oil-by-2020

Imagine the economics of these wells on that basis. OMG???

nunthewiser · 31 July 2010

condog said:
A bro whos a regular on here said he saw bots in action this afternoon. Sounds like bots to me, picking away trying to trigger stop losses and a price fall so they can buy up. Report them - bots are the evil enemy.

nunthewiser said:
Oh dear.......

these "evil" bots are merely an automated broker program for hiding orders.Someone may have a large parcel or ANY parcel actually for sale/to buy and it is a program provided by various brokers so they can do there order without exposeing it.

On a low volume stock like AUT sometimes it pays to use this method so you dont scare the buyers off with larger sell orders

anyone can do it IB provides this service.

there are numerous threads on ASF in regards to this practise.

nothin "evil" or conspiratory about it .

on a side note todays main VOLUME action was around the lows of the day and the pumps along the way were immediatly sold into . Check Vwap and course of sales.

My target of 66-72/73 and analysis still stands at present but happy to jump on as a trade if proven wrong.

condog said:
Provocative and unnecesary.
.

?
Why? because i provided facts ?

This thread is unbelievable! provide facts with no abuse and name calling??? WTF??... oh i know why ....lol its because it exposed some of the made up rubbish that gets posted in threads at times.

DEAR ASF READERS PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH WHEN LISTENING TO POSTERS IN THESE THREADS.

thankyou.

condog · 31 July 2010

Nun , with respect where are the facts. You keep saying over and over your analysis says, but you will not provide your analysis for us to discuss.

Once some time ago you provided a graph with a resistance line and a trendline. Some time ago. Yet you profess to be a short term trader. That being the case that analysis is surely outdated by now.

Please provide analysis.

All my calculations are out there for all to see and discuss. So please if your going to provide price targets , please provide the analysis.

nioka · 31 July 2010

nunthewiser said:
Oh dear.......

these "evil" bots are merely an automated broker program for hiding orders.Someone may have a large parcel or ANY parcel actually for sale/to buy and it is a program provided by various brokers so they can do there order without exposeing it..

I don't say bots are evil but I do say there is always a reason for them to be active. I like to know they are active in any stock I am interested in and I particularly like to know whether they are buying or selling. My actions in buying or selling are influenced by bot action. I also believe that in order to have a level playing field that brokers should have their orders placed without being hidden in any way, the same as my orders are there for everyone to see.

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency