AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

adobee · 28 July 2010

nioka said:
The problem with that proposition is the lack of information released by companies to shareholders. It leaves us to second guess. A lot of forums do come up with the news ahead of company announcements. It becomes a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff.

I think this is especially the case the in Eagleford and with Hillcorp ADI & AUT etc... They seem to have a motto loose lips sink ships.. 60% of the info in the market place seems to be from locals rather than the company ..

condog · 28 July 2010

adobee said:
I think this is especially the case the in Eagleford and with Hillcorp ADI & AUT etc... They seem to have a motto loose lips sink ships.. 60% of the info in the market place seems to be from locals rather than the company ..

I think that certainly used to be the case under TCEI.... but I wouldnt agree its still the case....obviously wede all like to know every intricate detail as it all happens, but that aint gunna happen.

I think its been pretty damn good of late

Drill frac ips then 30 and 60 dayers, thats all we really need imo.

condog · 29 July 2010

Checked the numbers traded yesterday

21,597,296 May
18,417,802 June
13,557,165 July so far with 2 days left at say 3-400K each.

So no sell offs as suggested, just trading narrowly rather then the usual seller drought of previous months. Nice tight bollingers ready to break uwards on news.

From now to end of next week look for news on T3, spud news and the biggy, reserves upgrade.

condog · 29 July 2010

Kowalick being done as we speak, T3 being fracced? awaiting results

May Unit, Patino Unit and Luna Unit approved and waiting to go.

condog · 29 July 2010

From AZZ quarterly

4. Average Oil Price Received Up 5%.
5. Average Gas Price Received Up 21%.

Encouraging, given they are serving the same area. Especially the gas price up nicely.

nunthewiser · 29 July 2010

Will try and post a chart later explaining what im seeing but its not rocket science to place a chart and map this sideways moves volumes. Intresting the sell day vols to the rest of the range, intresting to map the vwap over this period also.

BrightGreenGlow · 29 July 2010

AUT down $0.02 so far today. More sellers today than buyers.
"31 buyers for 533,021 units 35 sellers for 717,549 units"

subasurf · 29 July 2010

Yeah my patience is wearing very thin. I almost sold last week to top up my CVN shares. Now I'm really wishing I had.

At the moment AUT is just dead money. Still, I'll hold out for the possible break.

nunthewiser · 29 July 2010

subasurf said:
Yeah my patience is wearing very thin. I almost sold last week to top up my CVN shares. Now I'm really wishing I had.

At the moment AUT is just dead money. Still, I'll hold out for the possible break.

To be fair.

There is no sell signals currently as YET either . the stock rremains in a tight channel with no break either side ....... IF already a holder there is no rule broken yet ..... IF a buyer there is no entry signal yet.....

Limbo land until a direction is given.

MY previous targets given are still current but as a trader i would be more than happy to enter on a break north.

Volumes and tech analysis as posted a while back indictae to ME that i think a break south is the more probable to ME but it does not mean that if one was holding they should sell or be concerned until the rules of the channel are actually broken.

subasurf · 29 July 2010

Very well put
I couldn't agree more. Even though I think AUT is a solid investment in the long term, I can now only see it going down before it heads up in any way significant. Unless of course they get a positive announcement out soon.

Limbo land is losing me money in the fact that I could be making money off the capital elsewhere...or lose it, I suppose. My target sell price for AUT is $1 which I don't think will arrive any time soon.

I'll be thinking it over heavily on the weekend. Most likely I'll dump it. ALL my other stocks are moving up except AUT. Although I did buy in at a bad time (86 cents).

condog · 29 July 2010

Nun well put

except the break south bit, we dont know that and fundamentally its far more likely to break north afte 60+ days in limbo land consolidating, all the while with value being added.

There is potentially very significant news any day now with the reserve upgrade, and the effect of that is ????

If anything the ADI sale held AUT back, it rocketed early but then got caught up for a while on its well established ratio and effectively didnt put on the price gains for T1, T2 . It so far still hasnt and also hasnt put on the tiny gains for the others lodgment or the accellerated drilling program on a fundamental basis.

similarly it hasnt put on the 20% gas price gains or 5% oil gains, which all help the repayment of hilcorp even faster.

So yeh its frustrating for all, but remember stocks have a good habit of chasing value. Thats how and why AUT EKA and ADI gained so much thos year. And has the drilling fraccing and good results stopped? No.

In fact its only got better, with stronger results and an accelerated fully funded program.

Its your money do as you will, play smart, make good decisions, but sometimes you gotta ignore the noise.

Right now as nun says its sitting in a tight channel. Ready for a break out, the bollengers are tighter and every day it stays here it looks cheaper to its recent growth trendlines since hilcorp took over.

On the fundamental side of the coin all is better then good imo.

condog · 29 July 2010

My trendline, takes into account significnat circumstance change when hilcorp took over in late march early april start of new drilling times and competent operator.

Lots of touches indicates appropriately placed trendline.

Tight bollingers indicates likely breakout. imo upwards on the back of good news. but thats opinion.

I still think its driven by news and fundamentals, but given some are technial focused this is my technical take on it as of today.

Red line is the simple moving average. Relative strength index is just under 50. MACD are tight and low which is an up indicator. Stochastics are low tight and crissy crossy another good sign for an up trend to start. Momentum is at 50, not indicating either. Money flow index is about 40 showing marginally over sold.

But to mee the best indicators are very tight bollingers and excellent underlying fundamentals after a long and somewhat frustrating consolidation and below its trendline with lots of touches.

Understandable why its there on the back of CR and SPP, but none the less, sooner or later it should catch value again imo.

Looking forward to the reserve upgrade next week.

mir · 29 July 2010

this is my fundamental take on things,the IP rates are no longer that important we know what flows we can get without restricting the choke, morgan 2046 b/d & 5.16 mmcf/d ,it's all about ultimate recovery rancho turnbull 1,2&3 all restricted choke.it will be interesting to see when production at rancho will be greater than morgan ,my guess is 90 days.AUT is now in field development so the more wells drilled the better(about 650 wells to be drilled) & that's happening with hilcorp with little risk.the thing I'm still waiting for is the reserves upgrade as this should re-rate AUT , this is what the institutions need to see, it's taking longer than first thought but hopefully not far away.

condog · 29 July 2010

MIR its very close i communicated with AUT a few days ago and they had a meeting with the reporters today. They wouldnt say when, but its virtually complete..

5haretrader · 29 July 2010

Condog, you seem to know a fair old deal about the AUT fundamentals so I am interested in how you think the share price will fare once the reserves upgrade is released. I anticipate it to be a fairly positive announcement so hopefully it kicks the share price above those resistance levels.

Also, today's selling might have been a few who took part in the capital raising selling off their allocated shares for 'easy money'.

nunthewiser · 29 July 2010

condog said:
MIR its very close i communicated with AUT a few days ago and they had a meeting with the reporters today. They wouldnt say when, but its virtually complete..

5haretrader said:
Also, today's selling might have been a few who took part in the capital raising selling off their allocated shares for 'easy money'.

Seeing as everyones speculating and posting unverifiable statements......... Perhaps todays selloff was due to those "insiders" knowing the results might not be so great after all ?

condog · 29 July 2010

On a fundamental if the upgrade is in the ballpark of what Hartleys suggest which is a possilbe 22% recovery from its current 1P at 7%, thats a 300% upgrade. That wont affect cash flow valuations unless people are projecting beyond about 5-7 years.

But for those using 1p reserves its a 300% increase in recovery, thus a massive rerating. My guess is it will initially bounce as those, but will take a few days or weeks to ripple through the news and valuation channels.

Even the big instos have varying analysts, traders, strategists working within then that invest / trade companies on variable parameters. But the fact is the fundamental investors, using valuation based models based on auditable accounting standards will tend to use a valuation model heavily influenced by 1p reserves.

So i wouldnt at all be surprised to see or hear of several bigger transations if / when it occurs. Euroz and Hartleys will review thier valuations.
If its far enough below valaution it might spark a few new brokers / analysts to report it to thier clients.

Also one needs to consider we have just recently bumped AZZ from its index position and from its top 20 oil and gas position on a fundamental basis that adds another small group of fund buyers.

nioka · 29 July 2010

nunthewiser said:
Seeing as everyones speculating and posting unverifiable statements......... Perhaps todays selloff was due to those "insiders" knowing the results might not be so great after all ?

Heaven forbid. Those pesky insiders. I've applied for membership of the club (or at least I would if I knew where to apply).

But then, Are the posts speculative or fact? Flow figures are available. The price of oil and gas is available.The field appears proven. The operator has shown they are competent. The SPP was scaled back so the money is there. The future drilling program is happening and becomes the current program.

I bought a few more today in a swap trade for EKA. The more this stutters the more I like it. Guess I am one of those speculating.

5haretrader · 29 July 2010

nunthewiser said:
Perhaps todays selloff was due to those "insiders" knowing the results might not be so great after all ?

Insiders would have bailed and left an obvious trace of volume in their wake. Thing is, if it doesn't break 87cents in the next week or two after the reserves upgrade, what will?

nunthewiser · 29 July 2010

condog said:
MIR its very close i communicated with AUT a few days ago and they had a meeting with the reporters today. They wouldnt say when, but its virtually complete..

5haretrader said:
. I anticipate it to be a fairly positive announcement so hopefully it kicks the share price above those resistance levels.

Also, today's selling might have been a few who took part in the capital raising selling off their allocated shares for 'easy money'.

nioka said:
But then, Are the posts speculative or fact?
I bought a few more today in a swap trade for EKA. The more this stutters the more I like it. Guess I am one of those speculating.

Yes Definately speculative ....... no verifiable facts there whatsoever......

good luck with your purchase .

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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