AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

AUT has confirmed oversubscription of the SPP and expects pro-rata scale-back by about 1/3. What I don't get is why they'd be stupid enough to punish shareholders this way?

When capital is wanted and, generally, hard to get, they could have allowed for over-subscriptions. Instead, they just hold the money, get interest on it, and will probably then send us damned refunds by cheque, costing us more money and effort to bank the stupid things. Lose-lose scenario.

Well, Kremmen, if you reside in Australia or NZ, you might pick up some of the shares provisionally allocated to me as I am not. I filed my application electronically through my broker before I was aware of that restriction. Computers being what they are, I got debited with the full AUD15k so I just have to wait until next Tuesday to see what happens. The bit of information that I do have, I got directly from Ms Foster by e-mail. I can't get any sense out of the humanoids paid as brokers. It's going to be a bit costly anyway because of FX charges. But, If they don't twig that I'm a foreigner (eligible to buy on the market but not to participate in corporate actions), I might get a 2/3rds allocation. Nothing for it but to wait and see.

As to the offer itself, the number of shares is probably capped because the issue has to be specifically approved by company resolution. It is also underwritten, I believe. Both make a flexible issue (meeting demand from shareholders) a bit problematic, I would have thought.

As I've bought the AUD anyway, I might use them to buy some in the market if I don't get an allocation.

Who knows what the future may bring. Maybe you will be greatful, in time to come, that there was a scale back and you received some of your hard earned money back?

Lower highs and lower lows...
where she stops, no-one knows....





Opened lower, fell and while it closed higher on the day, it is lower than the previous days high. Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and will need more than hot air and daily press releases of well flow rates and back pressure to reach those optimistic targets.

Kremmen said:

AUT has confirmed oversubscription of the SPP and expects pro-rata scale-back by about 1/3. What I don't get is why they'd be stupid enough to punish shareholders this way?

When capital is wanted and, generally, hard to get, they could have allowed for over-subscriptions. Instead, they just hold the money, get interest on it, and will probably then send us damned refunds by cheque, costing us more money and effort to bank the stupid things. Lose-lose scenario.

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I thought some people where pretty silly not to buy at 74c -76c at the time the announcment was made and the following weeks. Why bother with the paper work and chance of scale back when you can get them on market at that price.

In terms of the scale back i actually like the fact. They showed discipline and have not diluted us more the necesary. If they where operator they could have done what you said, but they now have enough capital to get through to H2 2011 so an extra few mil on the balance sheets looks like lazy money , ie diluted extra % for no productive reason. But i understand your frustration, unfortunately for you its par for the course with most CR's these days.

nulla nulla

It is a point. On a far far larger scale, I wasn't sure whether to be grateful to AWE that it forced me out of ADI or to be resentful.

So, in a way I've already been through that thought process. Had I been convinced that I wanted that much money to remain invested, I'd have ploughed it all back into AUT and EKA.

The bid gave me the opportunity to reconsider whether I wanted that level of exposure. The answer was in the negative - so I took some cash out. Quite a bit. Not for want of confidence in the company (AUT) but for want of comfort with the general economic situation.

It's not the strategy to optimise profits but it is a better strategy in uncertain times to survive and make some profit. Besides which, when you have dependants, it is difficult to budget ahead precisely.

nulla nulla said:

Lower highs and lower lows...
where she stops, no-one knows....


View attachment 38013


Opened lower, fell and while it closed higher on the day, it is lower than the previous days high. Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and will need more than hot air and daily press releases of well flow rates and back pressure to reach those optimistic targets.

Click to expand...

yep

One should keep an eye on the intrday action also . lots more volume being sold down into the market that comes in off screen .shows in course of sales and even better when you watching it live.

I have mentioned the dodgy volume games before on this thread.

No reason to change my .72 target as yet as shown on previous analysis chart.

volumes telling a different story to the weak volume pump ups during the day and at close.

estseon said:

nulla nulla

It is a point. On a far far larger scale, I wasn't sure whether to be grateful to AWE that it forced me out of ADI or to be resentful.

So, in a way I've already been through that thought process. Had I been convinced that I wanted that much money to remain invested, I'd have ploughed it all back into AUT and EKA.

The bid gave me the opportunity to reconsider whether I wanted that level of exposure. The answer was in the negative - so I took some cash out. Quite a bit. Not for want of confidence in the company (AUT) but for want of comfort with the general economic situation.

It's not the strategy to optimise profits but it is a better strategy in uncertain times to survive and make some profit. Besides which, when you have dependants, it is difficult to budget ahead precisely.

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Yeah I tend to agree. I find it hard to pour in funds in the present unreliable environment then hold through the falls and (hopefully) rises. Much better to lock in profits and re-enter on subsequent retraces, where there is enough stability in the share to have confidence that it will recover.

nulla nulla said:

Lower highs and lower lows...
where she stops, no-one knows....

Opened lower, fell and while it closed higher on the day, it is lower than the previous days high. Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and will need more than hot air and daily press releases of well flow rates and back pressure to reach those optimistic targets.

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Nulla its one stock that can hardly be associated with hot air. They have consistently added value with underlying assets that will soon be producing monumentally helpful cash flows.

Cast an eye off your charts and have a read and take a look at the fundamentals, it might help you to know what your graphs are showing.

The flat patch at present is normal after CR and SPP, sellers will evaporate and the price will play catch up to the significant value added during the consolidation of the last 60 days imo.

Reserves upgrade next week or the following will certainly massively imporve underlying value. No guarauntees that will immediately be reflected in the sp, but it will certainly help with broker upgrades or anyone casting a fundamental ruler over AUT.

nulla nulla said:

Lower highs and lower lows...
where she stops, no-one knows....

Opened lower, fell and while it closed higher on the day, it is lower than the previous days high. Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and will need more than hot air and daily press releases of well flow rates and back pressure to reach those optimistic targets.

Click to expand...

Looks like a more bullish hammer to me with a dodgy cup and handle forming up (more like a martini glass and handle). Those tails are always a positive sign imo. Between 65 and 75c looks like very good short term support. No idea where it's going on the way up, bubbles bubble.

nunthewiser said:

One should keep an eye on the intrday action also . lots more volume being sold down into the market that comes in off screen .shows in course of sales and even better when you watching it live.

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??? Not sure what you mean here, can you please explain.

nunthewiser said:

I have mentioned the dodgy volume games before on this thread.

volumes telling a different story to the weak volume pump ups during the day and at close.

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I was under the illusion that for every trade there was both a buyer and a seller who agreed to trade the share for money. Are you saying the buyers are being ripped off, not paying or what???

Could you possibly point out what you mean by these alleged dodgy volume games.

I have pasted all of todays trades below so you can kindly explain this and prove such what seem like wild accusations.

My posts are self explanatory.

might help if people actually followed the trades as they happen.

I am not here to teach anyone how to read volumes whilst trading.

There are plenty of Volume threads on ASF if you need any education.


read into my posts how you wish, they are relevant, acurate and non biased.

lol and so far both times ive called a ST top on here for AUT i have been correct

gotta love that.

Now I can see the exact time I bought 10,000 of them today. How can you have dodgy volume? People putting in fake bids / offers????

nulla nulla said:

Lower highs and lower lows...
where she stops, no-one knows....



Opened lower, fell and while it closed higher on the day, it is lower than the previous days high. Still struggling to break through the resistance levels and will need more than hot air and daily press releases of well flow rates and back pressure to reach those optimistic targets.

Click to expand...

Nulla do you know whats been driving the price during the period you refer to over the past 60 days. The first was a mass sell off on the entire market with fears of a US recession, double dip that is. The second was speculation which turned out true of a CR, the third was the discounted SPP, which all allowed buyers to buy below market level both private and institutional.

Right now we are seeing slightly increased volumes of sellers. But despite all the doom and gloom by a few that have so far shown little understanding of the stock, buyers are still cuing up to over subscribe the SPP by 33% and to allow the SP to be maintained via sufficeint buyers seeing the value and wanting in.

Yes your graph shows lower lows and lower highs, but this is exactly why its so dangerous to make assumptions based only on graphs. Charts or graphs are part of the equation, they can help show patterns that in some instances can help indicate trends about to unfold.

However far more important is knowing why the chart is showing that pattern so that you can rationalise and make safe informed decisions on what your charts are "predicting".

Right now the chart is showing some selling pressure, which is totally understandable given its on the back of a CR and SPP.

However its also telling you we have had 60+ days of trading held back for legitimate reasons with good volumes going through establishing a massive bunch of new buyers and traders with purchase prices around and just over 80c. We also have 48Million buyers came in at 75c.

All the while during that 60 days, hilcorp have kept drilling and fraccing and flowing new wells to sales, putting in applications and securing capital to sure up continuous accelerated forward drilling programs.

Merger and acquisitions have continued at a frantic pace with record new prices being paid, and the Eagleford continues to make international headlines worldwide.

Like wise Netherland Sewell Associates in Houston have been busily working away on the eagerly anticipated reserves upgrade calculations due out next week or the following week.

So right now i dont see too many concerns other then a bot of noise. Oil price is good and US situation while concerning is relatively stable imo.

BrightGreenGlow said:

Now I can see the exact time I bought 10,000 of them today. How can you have dodgy volume? People putting in fake bids / offers????

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Fake bids and orders are a daily occurunce on this stock ..... 1 minute their there propping things up then POW the price gets close and they dissapear..... same with a lot of lower volume plays...... just a puff up on depths to try and "influemnce" other punters

dodgy volume = i mean the games played as in the actual buy ups to sell downs and at the price levels the major vols go through.

the other day a prime example , all day it traded around its lows to mid areas .YET on close minor volumes was used to push the close price up to finish on its highs ..i mentioned this a few posts back but it was ignored

happens all over the asx not just AUT , is used too the reverse also.

There is more in depth chat about it around these forums but my suggestions is IF you have the time to atually sit in front of the screen to watch what occurs in the pump up and sooth down on intraday action . Not on every stock but sure is noticeable when you keep an eye out for it.

but hey just because i use different methods to trade , dont mean anyone else should.

lol i could be wrong also .

nunthewiser said:

My posts are self explanatory.

might help if people actually followed the trades as they happen.

I am not here to teach anyone how to read volumes whilst trading.

There are plenty of Volume threads on ASF if you need any education.


read into my posts how you wish, they are relevant, acurate and non biased.

lol and so far both times ive called a ST top on here for AUT i have been correct

gotta love that.

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Didnt think youd be able to justify those wild accusations, but i thought id be polite and ask nicely.

Yep and your right - your not her to educate, a quick flick through your post history quickly highlights that you appear to be here to antagonise.


By the way nun any alleged dodgy volume games on close certainly did not occur today. There where more trades in volume to prove demand on close in the last 12 minutes then in the previous hour. So it was hardly the low volume price spike or dip , you refer to.

Nuns right that that can happen, but as he say it happens on lots of stocks and in the end it all seems to even out. Yet another reason relying solely on charts to heavily can prove very dangerous if they are being manipulated to show false patterns.

Whats to say nullas chart above hasnt been manipulated 6 days in a row by someone wanting to scare the market.

It all evens out eventually stocks chase fair value, rather then smoke and mirrors.

Oh ok, I thought the Volume was only a total of all stock traded not in the queue. Moving towards a dollar would be nice in a few months

BrightGreenGlow said:

Oh ok, I thought the Volume was only a total of all stock traded not in the queue.

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the overall volume tally for the day is the overall stock traded.

Breaking this volume tally down with observation is what often tells a story .

Please take the time to have a squiz around the volume threads , there is some intresting reading.

cheers and good luck with your hold

condog said:

Didnt think youd be able to justify those wild accusations, but i thought id be polite and ask nicely.

Yep and your right - your not her to educate, a quick flick through your post history quickly highlights that you appear to be here to antagonise.

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I have not addressed you and have been told not to bother replying to you but i do not appreciate yet another personal attack . why do you persist ?when its obvious i have nothing to share with YOU and merely posting my comments/thoughts to others here .

nunthewiser said:

Fake bids and orders are a daily occurunce on this stock ..... 1 minute their there propping things up then POW the price gets close and they dissapear..... same with a lot of lower volume plays...... just a puff up on depths to try and "influemnce" other punters

dodgy volume = i mean the games played as in the actual buy ups to sell downs and at the price levels the major vols go through.

the other day a prime example , all day it traded around its lows to mid areas .YET on close minor volumes was used to push the close price up to finish on its highs ..i mentioned this a few posts back but it was ignored

happens all over the asx not just AUT , is used too the reverse also.

There is more in depth chat about it around these forums but my suggestions is IF you have the time to atually sit in front of the screen to watch what occurs in the pump up and sooth down on intraday action . Not on every stock but sure is noticeable when you keep an eye out for it.

but hey just because i use different methods to trade , dont mean anyone else should.

lol i could be wrong also .

Click to expand...

So what you mean is the stock can trade all day at say 98c or a $1
Then someone buys at $1.30 to set the stock at false higher rate
The punter sees he stock going up so more jump in a buy the stock pushing the stock up to day $1.40
when the stock is higher the punter who placed the higher bid of $1.30 then sells for a profit
am i reading this correct ???