AUT had over$8.8M in cash last time i checked after they exercised the directors oppies.
They should be good to get through the current drilling program without dilution in my opinion. This is only opinion.
MD says they have deliberately structured the farmin to avouid any further dilution prior to cash flowing sufficintly to sustain fiurther drilling operations.
At 10%, 25% and 40% interst well costs would be around $600K, $1.5M & $2.4M depending which acerage was drilled post free carried wells.
Any accelleration in the AMI at a mere $600K per well could easily be met.
Kennedy and Weston will soon be flowing cash, I estimate around June. Morgan in August to october and Easily October to Novemebr, assuming flows are in line with expectations.
So technically we could handle an extra well in Longhorn and and several extra wells in the AMI in 2010 without any need in my opinion for dilution.
15 Wells planned for 2011, but we need to see where prior to knowing what capital is required. If they are all in the aMI it should easily be met. Too many in Longhorn or Ipenema would be an issue.
It all depends on the drilling schedule in early 2010 and results from the free carried wells soon to come online.
Personally I wouldn't be averse as a shareholder to a little dilution to grease the wheels of the program in 2010 but if it can be done as you have inferred condog on revenues well all the better.
Reading a few posts from some pretty disgruntled ADI holders who were not offered a buy into the cap raising and have seen some heavy dilution for a measly 5.5 million in the bank makes me hope if a raising is done it will be in the latter part of the year when some more value has been added by further derisking of our acreages.
Quarterly made for pretty good reading and the cash position looks strong enough for the next quarter or two until some revenues start to flow through so we'll have to sit tight and see how it plays out I guess.
http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2010/AUT20100430.pdf
"What's the issue?
The issue is simply that loyal shareholders are not given a bite of the cherry.
With EKA it was a prorata issue and I maintained my shareholding by taking up the issue. With ADI one shareholder AWE was given the opportunity of maintaining its percentage holding. Other shareholders were not. The discounted shares were given to a third party who will sell these shares at a profit almost immediately.
If AUT do raise more capital I would hope they follow the lead of little brother and give me a chance to maintain my percentage holding.
My thoughts exactly. What I predict will happen is that when we reach post-farmout status and the percentages are paid up by Hilcorp, after a year or so those who ARE profitable will purchase the debts and carry for the ones that ARE NOT profitable. With the Aussies in one big circle down here I doubt any single company in the play is in a position to roll up shop and leave town this far into the game. Now it's like throwing darts and hope it lands on a winner. I'm trying to forsee the strategy myself but my bulb has not lit yet.
The issue is simply that loyal shareholders are not given a bite of the cherry.
With EKA it was a prorata issue and I maintained my shareholding by taking up the issue. With ADI one shareholder AWE was given the opportunity of maintaining its percentage holding. Other shareholders were not. The discounted shares were given to a third party who will sell these shares at a profit almost immediately.
If AUT do raise more capital I would hope they follow the lead of little brother and give me a chance to maintain my percentage holding.
nioka
i thought i read somewhere on the eka thread on hc that you had dumped out the majority of your shares in adi and went to eka???
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