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AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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With the speed in which hilcorp are drilling and fully completing these wells in, i would highly doubt the workers would have 6 hours experience up their sleeves.
 
fflintoff said:
It is sour grapes I ´m afraid following the debacle at ADI & then the meteoric rise at AUT where he failed to invest.
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I made a lot of money on ADI and he must have made a multiple of that - if that is a debacle, then what is a success? In saying that he 'failed to invest' in AUT, you are presuming that he was free to invest in that company. As to his flagging up the benefits of being operator - there must be benefit in having control over the business. I have holdings in both companies. The AUT Board has done a magnificent job of keeping pace with Hilcorp but it is Hilcorp that is calling the shots. TXN is free to determine its own development programme.

And what he says about the pace of development in the area driven by the need to secure leases is totally credible. Just read what the big boys operating in the area are saying. There must be a strain on the infrastructure. It will sort itself out. But AUT is reporting that they are choking down production from completed wells. That could be management of the well to optimise total recovery or it could be to limit production because of restricted capacity to handle the product (or both).
 

I dont buy that argument at all. You go to an accountant when you need expert tax advice. You go to a lawyer for expert legal advice. You go to an orthopedic suregeon when you need orthpedic advice or work done.

In my opinion i would much rather have Hilcorp doing our drilling and fraccing then AUT employees. Why because they are experts.

I own both TXN and AUT. And i reckon this constant dribble that TXN is better cause its master of its own domain is not all its trumped up to be. Id much rather have Hilcorps guys doing it then TXN's own or AUT's own guys, anyday.

Id put money on it, that Hilcorp would have access to better qualified and more skilled operators then TXN could ever get thier hands on. Think about it for a minute. If your a highly skilled driller or frac crew, would you prefer to work for a constant operator like Hilcorp where they schedule one job after the other to keep you busy and more importantly paid, or would you rather be freelancing for TXN one fortnight, then someone else the next, someone lese the next, and have all sorts of administrative, operrational and payment issues.

Also in addition to that Hilcorp has an excellent HR mob that aim to skill up its owrkforcde and reward them for excellence and loyalty. Do a bit of research on that topic and you will see that Hilcorp has all sorts of remuneration and award programs in place to retain and train its employees to the highest level. The same cant be said of the operators TXN has got thier hands on. You can start here http://www.hilcorp.com/Succeeding.aspx
http://www.hilcorp.com/Thoughts.aspx
http://www.hilcorp.com/BestPlacesToWork.aspx
http://www.hilcorp.com/Benefits.aspx


Right oh, now go check out the same for the TXN drill crew and frac crew. Oh thats right they dont have a recognised crew, no website for them, no health benefits and employee incentive programs
Now seriously which organisation is likely to have the highly skilled crews.

Like i said i hold TXN , a lot of them, and i want them to succeed just like anyone else, but all this garbage about TXN having better crews, just because they are operator imo is utter garbage.
 
Got to say the discussion about AUT and its valuations on the Roger Montgomery Blog and on HC, has been completely laughable.

http://blog.rogermontgomery.com/who-asked-for-easter-holiday-homework/

I have a lot of respect for Roger and his valuation methods and i think they are fantastic with your traditional stocks.

However anyone trying to apply them to AUT where the NSAI reserves statements have significant lag built in and to the cashflows which are deferrred due to the repayments to hilcorp is kidding them selves if they think they can apply a traditional Roger Montgomery valuation method to AUT.

Classic case of people making huge assumptions with little knowledge of the stock and its development. Using innacurate numbers and figures and then multiplying them to end up with catastrophic errors of judgment and valuation.

Its crystal clear Lloyd tried to do his research, but equally as clear is that he has littl knowledge of the way NSAI have applied thier reserve estimates, of the way the play can be massively improved via reduced well spacing and targeting the Austin Chalks. He also seems to not understand the deferral of cash flow onto the balance sheet, and the significant improvements achieved in declines.

Sorry Roger, but Lloyd has it completely wrong and your acknowledgement of his numbers makes a fool of your methods. You cant be right all the time, but its a concern when you claim to be and have it so obviously wrong, by so much.

Using a reserves method is clearly innapropriate given the complexities of those reserve numbers and the multiples with which they can easily be increased by up to 4 to 8 times. Perhaps get Lloyd to apply his genious using a forward cashflow projection model and he might be in the ball park.
 
6% differential tsx sp to asx sp with insufficient volumes on tsx to give any support...grrhh we better be waiting for some decent news!
 
dashwood said:
6% differential tsx sp to asx sp with insufficient volumes on tsx to give any support...grrhh we better be waiting for some decent news!
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With the price of oil so high, wells being paid off so quickly, progress screaming along nicely, the situation looking so much better than when Euroz stuck a $4.50 price target on us, it's weird to see the price drop from well over $3 to under $2.80. The fundamentals will have to catch up sooner or later though, and assuming things keep going nicely and we're getting over $100 per barrel for oil, a long stay at these prices will just bring a more dramatic run later. The Australian dollar is very strong at the moment which doesn't work in our favour, but as someone else pointed out, the most important thing at this stage is getting the wells drilled and paid off, which is all done in US dollars anyway, so we're getting the full benefit of expensive oil.

We should get an operations update within a week or two, probably on the 8th of May if they're consistent. That probably won't bring all that much impact, but it will be good to see.

When is the quarterly due? That should give us a good boost, I'm guessing. All that oil we've been selling at $100-110+ must be helping!
 

The answer as I see it is the falling value of the $US. The SP (and the oil price) you mention at $3(AUD) is probably still the same value in $USD as the $2.80(AUD) is today. AUT is earning USD. If they don't get their act together that problem could get worse.
 
Absolutely, the high Australian dollar/weak US dollar isn't doing us any favours, but the price of oil is so high now, and all our expenses are in US dollars, so a % increase in the value of the Australian dollar shouldn't be giving the same % decrease in share price, even with a stable oil price. The weak US dollar doesn't entirely work against us; it decreases our costs, so increases our profits (in terms of US dollars), and of course, the high oil price does that too. Even with the strong Australian dollar, oil is still over $100 (AU) per barrel.
 

Sdajii i would have thought the same. If anything the % difference between US Dollar & the price of oil should well & truely be a plus. Oil was around $80 a barrel not so long ago & the US dollar hasn't weaken that much in comparison. Just wondering about the price per barrel. When do they set a price it. Is at the beginning on ever month?
 
Condog post 2823

You quoted my post but responded to agentm's from what I see.

Whilst I agree 100% on Hilcorp I doubt very much that TXN is using its own employees.

TXN is contracting in rigs and fraccing teams. Delays reported in spudding and fraccing evidence that. Being operator does not mean necessarily hands-on control of the equipment. BP proved that to the world.
 

Exactly. During the recent surge in the Australian dollar relative to the American dollar, the oil price has surged far more. Even if the price of oil was only just catching up it would be going in our favour because our costs would be coming down, so our profits in Australian dollars would be greater. As it happens, things are even better than that, yet the share price has fallen a lot.

We don't need to raise capital any time soon (probably not at all unless there's another big land acquisition), so the share price won't affect the fundamentals in the near term, so, unless something bad actually happens in the real world (as opposed to speculation and technical analysis issues), we'll be in for a brilliant run any time between now and some point in the not too distant future.

I'm sure one of the gurus can answer the oil sales/price question. I have no idea.

When is the quarterly due?
 
Sdajii said:
When is the quarterly due?
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I can tell you the quarterly is over due as of today. Maybe has to do with Easter or something. So I expect it tomorrow, but it doesn't look like it will help the share price along much, there seems to be other things at play. I certainly hope I am wrong though.
 
I thought it was today or tomorrow. I expect it to be pretty good. I think you're right about 'other things going on' at the moment, but I hope you're wrong and the report provides enough oomph to do counter that. We'll see soon

Looking further than short term, in the next 6-36 months, I'm still pretty confident we'll be seeing a lot of positive movement.
 


The report is out already guys/girls

link : http://www.auroraoag.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1540-59225770/AnnualReporttoshareholders

 
What is going on with this market. The US has been strong all week yet we are down in the doldrums. AUT getting hammered.. Getting slightly nervous to see my profit get wiltered away.
 
Magic Man said:
What is going on with this market. The US has been strong all week yet we are down in the doldrums. AUT getting hammered.. Getting slightly nervous to see my profit get wiltered away.
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Just the market being irrational, in my opinion. I just wish I had spare money to buy some more at the moment. People are easily spooked and they react faster to bad new than to good news. I'm guessing they're probably reacting to the strong Australian dollar faster and more extremely than to the great progress and the strong oil price, but in the end things balance up. Brilliant buying opportunity at the moment in my opinion. Not being in a hurry to sell it's not bothering me.
 
WOW

Announcment out

Aurora’s net production and sales income have started to increase rapidly as a result of
its busy 2011 drilling schedule. Average production for the quarter increased to 787
boepd and sales increased to approximately US$5 million. These results will continue to
grow rapidly during the year as the well count grows and farmin wells drilled by the
Hilcorp Energy (the “Operator”) in 2010 and burdened with initial infrastructure costs, pay
out.
Aurora’s net production on 28 April had increased to approximately 1,660 boepd after
royalties.• The number of rigs operating across Aurora’s acreage increased from 2 to 4 during the
month of January. Drilling

A second fracture stimulation crew were contracted and commenced in the Sugarkane
Field at the end of the reporting period. A third crew is scheduled to work in the area for
short periods during Q2 2011.

This is the rapid re-rateing we have been waiting for...... The results of the accellerated program are now coming through in cash flow.
 
condog said:
WOW

Aurora’s net production on 28 April had increased to approximately 1,660 boepd after
royalties.
Click to expand...

So the income from that oil is something like 1,660 x $110 = $182,600 *per day*

= $182,600 x 30 = $5,878,000 *per month*

Minus costs of course, but to be at that stage now is awesome.

...and the rate of drilling, thus production increase, is huge, and the rate of drilling is still increasing! Each month that figure will be much higher. By the end of the year... oooh, nice. By the end of next year...

Do you have an estimate of production per day by the end of 2011 and 2012, condog?
 
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