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AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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Thanks. I first entered this stock after selling out of every thing else and got in a couple of months ago at 2.58. I than took the opportunity to chase it down in the last couple of days with a purchase at 2.70 and than 2.57 so now my average buy in is at 2.62.
Luckily I sold my house at the end of last year so sitting on plenty of cash that needs to be put to work.
 
PinguPingu said:
I've only been aware of this site since a few months ago (being a super noob), generally, how accurate do their targets seem to be?
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This is not a stock advice forum as much as it is a discussion forum, everything you read should be taken as an opinion and you should always DYOR (do your own research).

That said props to condog as he seems to be right on with his findings RE: AUT.
 
Go back and have a look at the numbers i presented on page 17 of this thread.

You will see that those numbers which seemed overly optimistic to most where in fact exceeded easily by AUT. Right now using a more refined (imo accurate) method now predicts end of 2011 numbers at around $8-$9.60 or so.

The real biggy is 2012 and 2013 , as the cash flow really begins rolling.

Note: these are just my numbers. They are an opinion. Whilst they where correct in the past, there are too many extraneous factors to conclude they may be accurate in the future.

Seek personal advice and Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
 

Thanks for your valued research Condog, you obviously put in a lot of time with your research and I wish you all the best with your trading.
 
Condog.

Im in the process of putting together my own spreadsheet, and was wondering what figures you use in yours.

- What operating costs per barrel do you use? ie 1 barrel costs $30 to extract
- For CAPEX will you just use how many NET wells AUT will drill that ending CY and x by $8million? By my calcs i have 15.8 NET AUT wells by end CY 2011 (this is taking into account the wells that have the smaller % interest)
- What sort of OPEX do you use?
- What % of risk do you build into your end valuation?
- to get your foward SP valuations, what sort of valuation methods do you use, (PE ratio PEG ratio)?

Cheers.
 
Condog you mentioned an awesome 2012, any hints what your numbers indicate say 30 June and the end of December next year?
 

My fault, think I wasn't really clear, not asking about the accuracy of targets on THIS site, but the STOXLINE site that was quoted. Who estimates those targets and how do they get those numbers?
 
I don't actually know, but I'd guess its a mathematical algorithm of some sort ie a computer program.

As to its accuracy, well there again, I don't know.

I wouldn't be placing my trading decisions in the hands of some computer program found on the web, but then again perhaps others do...

My suggestion is DYO thinking and analysis and go from there.
 
mytoniix said:
I would think most people would find AUT a mid term product would they not?
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From the research I've done, isn't 2012 onwards the time of (potential) rewards? Of course you may consider this a 'mid term' investment depending on your definition of such (which is arbitrary and thus different for everyone!)
 
The two brokers are not talking mid-term and they have targets of £4.50. AUT has an unbroken track record of smashing through brokers' targets. It opened trading on the TSX at $3.60. The price should move as the reserves become recognised by the market and TSX buyers may force an adjustment - example Harbour Advisors, who have bought 5.5m shares since the placing. There should be drilling and production updates soon - there'll be the March quarterly by the end of next month.
 
skyQuake said:
Take broker targets with a grain of salt. Esp those that helped facilitate the cap raising for said company.

This report was released 4th March on the way down too.
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Not so sky quake, in this case if anything they are far too conservative. Do the numbers yourself and you will see.
 
condog said:
Not so sky quake, in this case if anything they are far too conservative. Do the numbers yourself and you will see.
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Mid-long term agree with the numbers but who knows what price oil will be in 3 years let alone 3 days; though Euroz neglects to include about 15% of Mkt cap which is overseas..

imo short/mid term there's a few too many people that have hopped on. Just look at thread sentiment here or across the pond.

If you look closely, theres been a fair bit of buying overseas, which has helped prop up the price.

Technically feels like distribution, irrespective of the f/a picture.
 
condog said:
Not so sky quake, in this case if anything they are far too conservative. Do the numbers yourself and you will see.
Click to expand...

I reckon AUT are VERY vulnerable to a bid at around $4-50 at the moment.

There must be a few big players running their ruler over AUT right now.
They know that AUT are going to benefit from:-

1)possibly moving to eventual 40 acre well spacing (or even 20 acre!!),
2) exploiting the Austin chalks
3) expected improved UER's
4) A higher condensate ratio
5) lower production decline rates
6) approx 15% of acreage not included in reserves figures
7) etc. etc.

These should provide multiples of the current SP in the next year or two.

However, a ~50% premium bid right now at $4-50 might still look tempting to many PI's given that 2 Brokers reports put this figure as a target price. If it was a cash bid, it would also be a real tempter for the Instis in these uncertain (Middle East etc.) times too.

Is anyone else having these dark thoughts LOL?
 
ton,

I think that you may find that a significant proportion of the shares are held by professional investors and fund managers with longer time horizons. They will also know that the reserves valuation is done on a basis that seems to be questioned by other, larger, O&G companies. That's what Euroz said. Normally, there's a lot of risk to balance against potential but Hilcorp has a pretty good track record. So, I think not and I hope not.
 
tonudiki said:
I reckon AUT are VERY vulnerable to a bid at around $4-50 at the moment.
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Bear in mind that a lot of ADI money went into AUT during July last year. The capital gains tax conditions mean that a lot of it will be held until July this year. So look for some sizeable sales around that time. I'll be selling a lot from july onwards regardless of whether or not it has reached $4.50. Maybe not "the" lot but certainly a six figure amount.
 
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