AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

condog · 16 March 2011

HEA815 said:
In all seriousness this is ridiculous, there's no correlation between the AUT and the EFS and Japan (or Libya to a lesser albeit minuscule extent). What the F is going on!!!

I agree - risk aversion accounts for some selloff, but traders and stop loss triggers makes the sell down an over reaction.

To me it spells "opportunity"

Tuckertime · 16 March 2011

anyone got any preopen details? I'm having some problems with commsec and my internet

BrightGreenGlow · 16 March 2011

Tuckertime said:
anyone got any preopen details? I'm having some problems with commsec and my internet

When there's blood in the streets.... condog is right you want to buy before the trend is to buy if you believe the SP is a bargain...

Really sucks the SP has dropped due to external factors but hey we don't live in Japan... things could be a lot worse... pick you're mark and buy in again if you are confident in the AUT and oil story. Im inclined to wait a lil bit longer though... however you gotta look in the distance...

estseon · 16 March 2011

UK evening papers are showing radioactive fallout likely to be carried over the US by the Jet stream. Probably harmless and low level but it could spook the US already distrustful of fission generation after three mile island. This will turn public sentiment against new reactors and the obvious replacement for retired reactors will be generation using shale gas possibly combined with carbon capture. This share could fly imo.

trader8888 · 16 March 2011

I would just like to say that the knowledge of a few of the posters on this forum is really top class and they should be congratulated - especially, estseon, mir and condog.

Today i had the opportunity of sitting down with analysts from a fund managment firm and also brokers from merril lynch, and i can say first hand that the calculations and market knowledge of some of the posters here is on par if not better than the so called professionals.

Was very surprised that no one had heard about AUT, and most of them were bearish on commodities including oil. They were also trying to tell me that shale gas production was to costly and would not be profitable with $50 oil. Really shows how much these guys know. From my experience today i can see their are a lot of opinions and very big ego's.

condog · 16 March 2011

Got to say, just like the BP spill caused a rash of offshore investment to be cancelled and delayed, with a rush to onshore drilling, im thinking this nuclear problem is really going to spur some investment in gas, coal seam gas, coal and other forms.

If your an enery company in the US or any democratic nation trying to get thru any new power stations, somehow i think your going to be struggling to get any nuclear stations over the line. Where as when we talk about new mains load stations, gas and coal are the two main viable options.

Given the plentiful gas in the US, and previous govt statements with a desire to get some Gas plants off the ground, they may just now be fast tracked a little. This would cerrtainly help our shale drillers. TXN AUT HOG, SEA etc.

traderclaude · 16 March 2011

That is spot on I believe.

Oil, gas, and coal should rocket in the the months ahead, uranium has really been wiped out, maybe of the map for a long time.

I know uranium did have it's benifits as it can be a clean and efficient producer of energy, not really when you build the plants around earthquake areas. When they go they cause a lot of problems, a lot more than an oil leak like in the US gulf.

This is why buying into uranium never crossed my mind for a second.

mr. jeff · 16 March 2011

condog said:
Got to say, just like the BP spill caused a rash of offshore investment to be cancelled and delayed, with a rush to onshore drilling, im thinking this nuclear problem is really going to spur some investment in gas, coal seam gas, coal and other forms.

If your an enery company in the US or any democratic nation trying to get thru any new power stations, somehow i think your going to be struggling to get any nuclear stations over the line. Where as when we talk about new mains load stations, gas and coal are the two main viable options.

Given the plentiful gas in the US, and previous govt statements with a desire to get some Gas plants off the ground, they may just now be fast tracked a little. This would cerrtainly help our shale drillers. TXN AUT HOG, SEA etc.

I don't agree that further nuclear power station plans will be affected. Is there now no more drilling in the sea for oil after BP ? They will improve and modify their standards and progress. Make it, try it, change it, try it...potentially Japan will move away from nuclear in these regions permanently but that is all.

Where will we get our plutonium for one?! and no way China is going to just can a massive segment of their power infrastructure. This is and will be a very sobering and educational experience, nothing more.

In the short and medium term, gas exports and coal will be bumped up for Japan, agree there. I see Germany is suspending some reactors for inspections, so there will be change in the industry coming up, but in the long run this will probably stimulate the nuclear market.

condog · 16 March 2011

mr. jeff said:
I don't agree that further nuclear power station plans will be affected. Is there now no more drilling in the sea for oil after BP ? They will improve and modify their standards and progress. Make it, try it, change it, try it...potentially Japan will move away from nuclear in these regions permanently but that is all.

Where will we get our plutonium for one?! and no way China is going to just can a massive segment of their power infrastructure. This is and will be a very sobering and educational experience, nothing more.

In the short and medium term, gas exports and coal will be bumped up for Japan, agree there. I see Germany is suspending some reactors for inspections, so there will be change in the industry coming up, but in the long run this will probably stimulate the nuclear market.

Thats why i said democratic countries. Germany, has suspended, UK is running scenarios on thier 19. Theres too much to change over night, like they did with the BP spill. And yes the BP spill massively affected deep sea drilling. The US has only just allowed new wells to proceed and many companies shelved billions worth of deep sea drilling projects.

I think your underestimating it if you think the world will ignore this disaster. Japan has the highest technology reactors and safety procedures in the world. Admittedly this is one of thier older reactors, but if this can happen in japan it can happen anywhere. Your probably right they will sit up and take not and increase safety. But make no mistake, oil, gas and coal demand will surge imo on the back of this.

Countries like Australia that have lobby groups trying to get nuclear power stations up and running have basically lost the ability to convince the population its safe for the next 30 years. In countries with autocratic govt like China it wont affect it imo.

The US UK and most of democratic Europe will imo develop a not in my back yard approach to new reactors and the obvious short term solution is coal and gas. Clean technologies will take decades to implement.

Dont believe me , just ask yourself this. Would you be comfortable with a nuclear reactor within contamination distance of your house. The answer is no, and democratic countries will for a long time not allow it in thier back yard.

Assasin · 16 March 2011

Please remember gents that so far, no-one in Japan has been killed at the Nuke plants despite all the dramas, and yet over 20 people have been killed from the explosion and fire at their oil refinery.
Agree with Condog that in the next year or 2 other fuels will be popular but imo modern nuke plants will definately be the future in decades to come.
For AUT's sake, the focus on the nuke plants is taking away the dramas at the oil refinery's.
Ask yourself this, would you want to live next to a refinery?
Just adding to the discussion.

mr. jeff · 16 March 2011

Good points both Condog and Assasin; I agree that the oil and gas and coal will be a goer, I will wait for the moment to scale further in.

Off topic, can I add that Japan is a very different beast to Australia geologically, as our closest dangerous fault is where our plate pushes against Indonesia. So Australia has a much, much lower risk of high scale earthquakes (we design high rise for max level 7 currently), whereas Japan is just about the highest risk country on the planet.
Why build so close to the coast and to people? probably for transmission savings and emergency cooling ability from the sea? I know little about this.

Sorry I am getting way off the mark, thoughts with the Japanese people right now too.

Back to AUT, I am impressed AUT didn't pull back a bit more during this period, perhaps this is an indication of the type of holders in this stock now; but then I wonder whether that means the frantic buying that has pushed AUT along before will temper, and attention will shift to smaller players. (this is no suggestion that AUT has lost anything physically, more the market sentiment) - I remain very keen.

Cheers!

Sdajii · 16 March 2011

Assasin said:
Please remember gents that so far, no-one in Japan has been killed at the Nuke plants despite all the dramas, and yet over 20 people have been killed from the explosion and fire at their oil refinery.
Agree with Condog that in the next year or 2 other fuels will be popular but imo modern nuke plants will definately be the future in decades to come.
For AUT's sake, the focus on the nuke plants is taking away the dramas at the oil refinery's.
Ask yourself this, would you want to live next to a refinery?
Just adding to the discussion.

An explosion at an oil refinery may kill people, and sure, that's nasty, but the cleanup is relatively quick and straightforward.

On the other hand, nuclear disasters may not kill people in the initial explosion (but then again, they may do that too). Sure, but, the radioactivity may screw the area up effectively permanently, and do damage to people/crops/environment thousands of kilometers away.

Even ignoring the facts (which from an economics or decision-making point of view are rarely all that important anyway, especially in democratic countries), this is going to give the antinuclear hippies a lot of ammunition, and voters are going to be swayed. NIMBY is going to hinder the nuclear industry in the developed world. If radioactive material is blown over other countries, it won't be pleasant. Even if the levels weren't particularly harmful, I know I'd be pretty damned pissed off if some other country's (or my own!) nuclear reactor dumped radioactive crap on me or my loved ones, or areas I source my food from, etc.

traderclaude · 16 March 2011

For a bit of perspective put one in the middle of the desert of Australia, low risk.

Don't forget that the USA has somewhere like 500 nuclear submarines sitting off San Diego on the California coast when I last checked and that was a few years ago.

More a case of assessing the situation and looking at better practices in the future but that will take time.

I think it can be clean one day with low risk.

For now lets get on the oil and gas and watch these shares rocket.

link128 · 17 March 2011

Assasin said:
Please remember gents that so far, no-one in Japan has been killed at the Nuke plants despite all the dramas, and yet over 20 people have been killed from the explosion and fire at their oil refinery.
Agree with Condog that in the next year or 2 other fuels will be popular but imo modern nuke plants will definately be the future in decades to come.
For AUT's sake, the focus on the nuke plants is taking away the dramas at the oil refinery's.
Ask yourself this, would you want to live next to a refinery?
Just adding to the discussion.

Just to be clear, there have already been confirmed deaths and missing people at the Nuclear power plants.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html?hp

Thoughts are with these people's families and the workers toughing it out to try and contain the issue.

poverty · 17 March 2011

US markets smashed overnight, not going to be a pretty day.

isplicer · 17 March 2011

poverty said:
US markets smashed overnight, not going to be a pretty day.

For people looking to get on this stock, might not be all that bad =D

But thoughts are genuinely with the Japanese.

Assasin · 17 March 2011

link128 said:
Just to be clear, there have already been confirmed deaths and missing people at the Nuclear power plants.
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html?hp

Thoughts are with these people's families and the workers toughing it out to try and contain the issue.

Cheers Link128,

I stand corrected.

nioka · 17 March 2011

traderclaude said:
For a bit of perspective put one in the middle of the desert of Australia, low risk..

Not so. Central Australia was used for atom bomb trials. At that time I was a trainee industrial chemist and we were working on trials extracting rare earths from Monazite. Monazite also contains thorium. We discovered radioactivity in local milk, supposedly from fall out, when testing the process for radioactivity. Fallout was detected all over NSW.

Dust storms regularly send inland dust over Melbourne and Sydney. Sometimes as far as New Zealand.Sparsely settled east coast areas are the only possible choice but even those have their NIMBYs.

Maybe thorium based generation with its low radioactivity and safer characteristics is worth investigating.

AlexG1 · 17 March 2011

traderclaude said:
For a bit of perspective put one in the middle of the desert of Australia, low risk.

Sure - it's lower risk, but to do that you need to spend a sh*tload on supporting infrastructure. There's no high voltage transmission lines,and because it's in the middle of nowhere you have to build a very long transmission line to get it anywhere near where anybody can use it. That means you have all the power loss over distance things to worry about. Additionally there's not adequate transport infrastructure to build the thing in the first place. Is the cost/benefit equation going to stack up? Probably not.

There's a lot of other promising technologies which have low risk.

Alex.

condog · 17 March 2011

Claude - they cant go in the desert, they need to be within close proximity to the baseload area. They also need copeous quantities of water. Hence why japan runs them on the coast.
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2006-07/07rn12.pdf

Back on to AUT, done my buying for the week, time to watch tv as the lemmings watch thier stocks and panic. Enjoy the show. Dont just be a lemming, make your own judgments. corn:

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

Sdaji

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency