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AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

I'd suggest going to the AUT website and looking at page 7 of the 8 March presentation. That will provide the details of the other O&G companies drilling in the region and there will be a wealth of information on their websites.

Mir also posted on HC:

"here's a bit more i just remembered & may help explain why GMP think the reserves will increase.

they are drilling the bottom of the eagleford because you only hold the rights through production to the leases above the well. the frac's are going out more in a horizontal fashion than vertical as the shale has sections in it (see the core sample on page 31 of the presentation).the oil being recovered is probably coming from the lower E/F only.

in time they could start twinning the wells, one in the chalks & one in the E/F directly in line just at different depths. another company is already staggering the depths of the wells to get closer spacings."

But he didn't get his head bitten off on that board.

Anybody who has followed this project, whether through AUT, EKA, the demised ADI or UK AIM listed EME, will know that the Austin Chalk overlays the Eagle Ford Shale in the AMI and that there is a transition zone between them. They would also know that Weston was drilled by TCEI in the Chalk, as was Kowalik 1, which was completed with slotted liner to tap the natural fractures.

Anybody who has followed EME, which had a participation in CoP's Live Oak project, will know that Marlene Olsen was drilled vertically and test fractured in both the chalk and the shale to see how they flowed together from the same well. Information may have been available to Hilcorp at the time that it was assessing the farm in in 2009.
 
Decided to do a quick PE ratio calc on AUT.

These are the parameters used in the calc
- 5000 BOEPD (NET TO AUT)
- $95 Oil
- 350 days of production a year
- %40 tax and royalties

EPS -

$99,750,000 (NET PROFIT AFTER ALL DEDUCTIONS) divide by 403,000,000 (SOI)

= EPS 0.20c

PE RATIO -

$2.80 divide by 0.20c

= a PE RATIO of 14

IMO the 5000 boepd is very conservative but this is what the brokers are using. It has been mentioned before that the sector average PE ratio is 25 so you can see their is alot of room for SP movement.

Please correct me if anything is wrong.
 
Thanks a lot for that detailed reply condog - will be digging into some additional reading material - I've already done quite a bit of reading through the early postings.

Also thanks tothemax - will have a look into that book as well. Wish they had a Kindle version :-(

Very much appreciate the helpful nature of these forums and hope I'll be able to give back in the future.

Alex.
 

Take it easy Tiger. I was merely pointing out that I have a different definition of what 'no brainer' means, and describing my personal behavial response to reading such posts. Read my post again without a defensive mindset and you might find that I was not dissing the stock, or attacking anyone.

The fact that so much research has been done/shown here means that it is not a no brainer to me (as brain is definitely required to do research). But feel free to have a different definition for yourself.
 
Is anyone familiar with westpac online investing?

I cant seem to find the pre-open price listed anywhere...

there is a 2.88 figure down the bottom left with no heading but not sure if thats it?
 
With Westpac,

If you go into market depth it will show the indicative price near the bottom right hand corner..

Sweenz
 
A few simple questions, what effect does changes in the price of oil have for companies like AUT? If the price spikes up suddenly, like with this Libya crisis are AUT instantly making more money, or does it take a long, sustained period of high oil prices before it starts filtering down to AUT's bank account?
 
The sale prices of product by AUT is affected by global prices. The dry gas price is much more local oriented, but the condensate is more in direct competition with oil and as such its price is much closer linked to the crude prices.

So yes when oil prices are high companies like AUT make more profit, mainly from its condensate. Periods of materially higher prices will be very noticable in AUT's bank account and or in its well repayment times.

At current prices companies like AUT are likely to be significantly more profitable then when oil is down around $70-$80, as the profit margin is almost double for every barrel of condensate. Hope this helps.
 
Yeah tell me about it. Although we all love to top up on good stocks with good fundamentals we believe in, sometimes its not a nice feeling to see everything slump and all your capital go down the toilet.

Tomorrows another day but starting to wonder were this market is going in the short term and longer term.
 
ok go easy on me as I am a newbie.....

But as good as the fundamentals are ,for awhile there has been alot more sellers than buyers

and just looking at things like a MASCD of 3mths....since feb 11th its been on a steady decline...

Is everyone holding strong just on the fundamentals alone?!?!
 
Fundamentals seem to go out the window sometimes, and stocks that shouldn't go down do. More an overall market trend I think.

ASX has gone down more than other markets after the earthquake so a quick rebound is possible.

I would have thought oil and gas producing companies not effected by Japan and the Arab regions would see there shares going up at this stage.

People see gas, oil, energy and put it in the same basket without even looking at a company seems to be a trend.
 
I dont think it matters what sector it is, its going to feel it.

We have big ties with Japan in exports etc and I wouldn't be surprised if alot of the movement in our markets is Japanese investors pulling out.

Also you have to take into consideration the sheep effect.. Panic sets in and people sell!

Im selling up tommorrow all my holdings for a profit of around 18-20% (previously 70% a week before the earthquake) My big 4 stocks AUT, PEN, HOG and CCC have been hammered but Im still ahead so I cant complain!

Im getting to a stage where I cant afford to lose much more capital as Im currently renovating my house. Ill look to get back into my fundamentally sound stocks once this all blows over. Fundamentals go out the window in times like these.

Thoughts are with the people of Japan. Its only money Im losing, not my house or family.

God speed!
 
Ouch - what a day for AUT (mind you just as bad as a bunch of the others, HOG escaped but PEN was brutalised).

No obvious reason for the fall IMO, apart from the combined threat of Earthquake, Tsunami, Volcano and Nuclear Meltdown to scare investors (thank goodness Godzilla hasn't come along yet - poor taste I know but black humour is still humour).

In all seriousness this is ridiculous, there's no correlation between the AUT and the EFS and Japan (or Libya to a lesser albeit minuscule extent). What the F is going on!!!
 

A Fn crash thats what.
 
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