AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

HEA815 · 14 February 2011

This may seem like an open ended question but what has actually triggered and maintained the pullback and what needs to occur for a solid support level to be established (or was today it)?

Profit taking from some investors and possibly an increased trading agenda by others may impact on the sp, but why a fairly significant drop?

The situation in N Africa (Egypt) is positive for the region (short term instability, long term gain), there's been no dramatic change in the price of oil, there's definitely been no negative news released by the company, so why has this been occurring?

Market dynamics is the easy throw away line but I'm interested to know if anyone has a more solid or well informed opinion.

Cheers

Sharejon · 14 February 2011

Two main reasons imo,

1. Profit taking
2. Production update (preferably one with first time released flow-rates, i.e. Gilley/Direct Assets and the 25% well starting with the S.... I forget the name!)

A production update should be released very soon i reckon. If i had spare cash in my bank I'd very much be looking to top up at these levels, especially with an updated reserves report coming up at the end of the month.

donteatme · 15 February 2011

Also, I think the increased buying from the newly announced substantial holder could've been pushing the price up.

I just had a flick through of the latest Euroz. The price target of $3.60, when is that supposed to be achieved by? Get a bit confused with the price targets with no date.

condog · 15 February 2011

Fom the Guardian.uk

Obama tests bond markets with mega-deficits
US President Barack Obama faces a stiff battle with Republican foes in Congress after unveiling plans for $7.2 trillion (£4.5 trillion) of deficit spending over the next decade, and making little attempt to control the spiralling costs of social security and medical entitlements.

I cant see scare commodities like oil, gold and copper going backwards with that sort of money supply in the system. One would have to say its a deliberate ploy by the US to have a lower currency and boost exports and jobs. The flip side is its going to imo cause inflation for food, oil, gold, copper and all the other limited and scarce resources.

condog · 15 February 2011

And from the atlantic dot com

More good news on the economic fronts - this should flow into oil prices if its sustained.

"It was only six months ago that U.S. government and private sector data made a 2011 recovery uncertain. Economists may still refuse to give enough consideration to unemployment and the damaged housing market, which would make their optimism misplaced. Presumably, the WSJ economist panel took those things into consideration but believes that the American consumer is tired of austerity and business believes that the earnings improvement of the last two quarters can be maintained.

The U.S. economy was supposed to be what kept global GDP growth modest this year and next. It turns out that may not be the case. American demand for goods and services should help the Chinese economy. Germany's growth rate has improved rapidly as its exports have surged. Its effects on worldwide growth are small but proof that GDP recovery among large nations has quickened, when Japan is backed out.

The recession shattered every economy to some extent. The pieces may be coming back together again faster than expected. Global GDP now runs on two large engines, as the U.S. recovery takes an unexpectedly positive turn.
"

condog · 15 February 2011

Nice to see some renewed buying and some better support, after yesterdays rubbish. A few too many woory worts and nervous holders me thinks and the quicker we clear the decks of them the better.

Bought into TXN this morning after thier 60 day flows. Still risky, but the 60 day flow derisked enough for me to buy a holding.

Sharejon · 15 February 2011

Good to see AUT bouncing this morning.

kyrondgm · 15 February 2011

announcement must be imminent...either that or the smarter investors realise that the drop the last couple days was largely unfounded and are getting in for relatively cheap prices!!

condog · 15 February 2011

I note in the latest EKA announcment they have recieved money from hilcopr for a couple of wells and expect to see more money flowing in Feb from another couple.

Hilcorp made its first revenue distribution to Eureka in January for an amount of approximately US$95k, representing the Company’s share of sales of part-month production from the Luna-1H and May-1H wells in November.

It is anticipated that a second distribution of approximately US$235k will be received in February relating to December sales of production from those wells as well as part-month production from Urrutia-1H.

One would presume we where paid on the same dates in our proportion. Unless our excess cash flow is earmarked to repay other wells not in the sugarloaf AMI. But the good news is wells are now starting to be repayed. So im guessing now we will continue to see a well a month or more come online cash flow wise, before accellerating to two wells a month later in the year etc.

geelongfan · 15 February 2011

can someone explain this stock quote screenshot i got for AUT today?

now, from what i gather. the BID is at $3.29 (Which is the highest someone is willing to pay) and the offer is $3.02 (which is the lowest that someone wants to sell at).. why are they so far apart?

so anyway, looking at market depth.. what's stopping someone buying 18,911 @ $3.02 and then selling them all to the guy who wants 39,496 @ $3.16??? seems very strange and an easy way to make some $$$$?? something tells me i've got it all wrong

condog · 15 February 2011

geelongfan said:
can someone explain this stock quote screenshot i got for AUT today?

now, from what i gather. the BID is at $3.29 (Which is the highest someone is willing to pay) and the offer is $3.02 (which is the lowest that someone wants to sell at).. why are they so far apart?

so anyway, looking at market depth.. what's stopping someone buying 18,911 @ $3.02 and then selling them all to the guy who wants 39,496 @ $3.16??? seems very strange and an easy way to make some $$$$?? something tells me i've got it all wrong

Simple at 4.00pm when the market closes the buy sell spreads and sides often get stuffed up. Ignore it , its crap and it happens. For a while there it was fixxed, but seems to be occuring again.

condog · 15 February 2011

kyrondgm said:
announcement must be imminent...either that or the smarter investors realise that the drop the last couple days was largely unfounded and are getting in for relatively cheap prices!!

It was a normal post run consolidation. Weve seen it 20 times and we will see it again, when it runs hard, it pulls back and then works its way up before going again. No surprises.

link128 · 15 February 2011

condog said:
It was a normal post run consolidation. Weve seen it 20 times and we will see it again, when it runs hard, it pulls back and then works its way up before going again. No surprises.

A good time to do some trading if that happens again then (I have some free brokerage with CommSec atm). Would factors on charts like the RSI and MACD be good indicators of that, they tend to look okay judging by historical data?

I was in earlier at 2.92, then topped up a bit late at 3.17 (I topped up the wrong way, but thought I didn't want to miss the constant upward slope). As others have said this is the first stock in my portfolio too.

It's a good learning experience anyway

AngusSmart · 15 February 2011

link128 said:
A good time to do some trading if that happens again then (I have some free brokerage with CommSec atm). Would factors on charts like the RSI and MACD be good indicators of that, they tend to look okay judging by historical data?

I was in earlier at 2.92, then topped up a bit late at 3.17 (I topped up the wrong way, but thought I didn't want to miss the constant upward slope). As others have said this is the first stock in my portfolio too.

It's a good learning experience anyway

Do not try and trade aut. it will bite you back, just when you think you have sold at the right moment it shoots up..

estseon · 15 February 2011

AngusSmart said:
Do not try and trade aut. it will bite you back, just when you think you have sold at the right moment it shoots up..

It's getting too close now to the publication of the reserves valuation and commencement of trading on the TSX. External events seem to be positive for oil - Shell projects an increase in energy demand over the next 40 years by an additional 200% (must be a bit of a finger in the wind) and increased supply by 50% and oil production plateauing. I would suggest that those who are bullish of the reserves revaluation and want to be invested when it is published might be best advised to hold. There was significant price movement in the last session but fairly muted volume.

condog · 16 February 2011

Yep given we just been through our post $3.32 rise consolidation and holding $3.15 with reserves statement , TSX listing and accellerate drilling starting as we speak, its a dangerous game being out of the stock in coming days and weeks.

The reserves certification on its own has the potential to trigger some rediculous buying. Weve already seen the Canadians interest and we are not even listed over there yet.

Also probably not the next two announcment, but the next few updates after that have the potential to excite as they should be littered with new info when they occur with 4 rigs drilling away.

We should see some new well apps in the coming wekk or so as well imo.

ob1kinobi · 16 February 2011

AngusSmart said:
Do not try and trade aut. it will bite you back, just when you think you have sold at the right moment it shoots up..

touche well it has in the past anyway ...

Bubbasmith2 · 16 February 2011

geelongfan said:
can someone explain this stock quote screenshot i got for AUT today?

now, from what i gather. the BID is at $3.29 (Which is the highest someone is willing to pay) and the offer is $3.02 (which is the lowest that someone wants to sell at).. why are they so far apart?

so anyway, looking at market depth.. what's stopping someone buying 18,911 @ $3.02 and then selling them all to the guy who wants 39,496 @ $3.16??? seems very strange and an easy way to make some $$$$?? something tells me i've got it all wrong

Those bids, after the close, are all 'bodgy bids' set to confuse 'novices' selling in panic and other ' novices' to buy in case they 'miss the boat'. It happens each day after the close and before the open the next day.

majorca · 16 February 2011

I have always looked at the pre trade bids and thought that if you have the highest or lowest bid you would possibly be first to trade ( at least I thought that was the logic others were using), ie the average intersection of price will be what you pay or receive irrelevent of the price shown. So I would not call them bodgie bids in that respect but yet another cunning plan that seems brilliant in someone elses head?

condog · 16 February 2011

This is why i was saying in here TXN was too early since about 4 months ago. I also had similar view for the last 12 months that AUT would significantly outperform EKA.

Right now i think things are changing. As a result of yesterdays 60 day flow TXN will now grow. Whilst i think AUT still has very good growth, particularly in the next month or two, i also think if TXN now plays its cards right they will no experience significant growth, on the back of thier second horizontal and the verticle, lifting its boepd and its reserves.

For me the make or break whehther i will continue to hold will be the second horizontal well 60 day results.

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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