AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

philly · 9 February 2011

geelongfan said:
If it is harbour advisors, why is it a bad thing? Why are potential take-over bids a horrible thing to see?

Magic Man said:
Condog.. if AUT was taklen over by another company and say they offered $5.00 a share,... would that be a really bad thing?? Alot of people will make alot of money if the price tops $5.00??

A T/O can be either a good or bad thing depending on what you assess is the true value of the share.
If I thought that by the end of the year AUT will be valued at $6 why would I accept a bid of $5 now? I would only give up that potential $1 if I could invest it elsewhere and achieve a greater return. Don't worry anyone making a T/O is going to have a good idea about the true value of the share and then offer you as little as possible to get it.

I held ADI and the T/O bid was 42cents and that was about a year ago. Makes me cry thinking what it would be worth today

I hold and I will decide when and at what price I will sell, not that that is something I'm currently thinking about

Especially since this little beauty is achieving daily highs

stevensaul · 9 February 2011

142 buyers for 976,001 units 56 sellers for 228,915 units

Looking very healthy!

geelongfan · 9 February 2011

huge volume going just before close today...

Kremmen · 9 February 2011

Magic Man said:
Alot of people will make alot of money if the price tops $5.00??

Absolutely. I'd love it. (But I am biased: today is the anniversary of my first AUT investment.)

philly said:
If I thought that by the end of the year AUT will be valued at $6 why would I accept a bid of $5 now? I would only give up that potential $1 if I could invest it elsewhere and achieve a greater return.

Which should certainly be possible, given the number of other shale oil opportunities.

I held ADI and the T/O bid was 42cents and that was about a year ago. Makes me cry thinking what it would be worth today

But didn't you invest that money in AUT, or at least EKA?

jancha · 9 February 2011

I held ADI and the T/O bid was 42cents and that was about a year ago. Makes me cry thinking what it would be worth today

Philly if ADI was taken over by AWE why hasn't it jumped in value like AUT?

buffalo66 · 9 February 2011

The canadian listing, imo, has mostly pluses than minuses. +, as canadian funds buy into the stock which (as proven today) prices will get driven up & up. -, with big stakes comes more large short term action & ramp/dump. Agree a takeover would be tough to swallow after ADI...but on the plus I reckon would start a bidding war..

Bit more banter on Mr kissy Smith...
Our kissable rogue had a BUY reccomendation on HC for the stock DOW 29th November. After that the stock slid by more than 20%...not, I admit, the biggest crime but...wait for it..he then puts another buy recc on DOW for the 7th Feb with the simple reccomendation it was over sold the first time! This time he gets it right with a rebound...so if you bought in on the 29th Nov you'd only be 14% down! The guy is a pure gambling maniac genius. He (and others like him) should clearly have their own name & shame thread eh.

I'm a loving it very happy long term holder of both AUT & SEA ....sdajii -might well be time for some mighty expensive bananas after today!

DYOR

trader8888 · 9 February 2011

This vloume is really worrying me. Would hate a T/O at the moment. I think having listing on TSX might make it a little harder to T/O AUT though, anyone agree??

I just gave AUT a ring and asked to talk to Jon or anyone else from managment, but they were all in texes at the moment, must be the reserves report.

trader8888 · 9 February 2011

Got this off someone over at SSN

Only means one thing for AUT

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%

Share510 John Vidal, environment editor guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 February 2011 22.00 GMT Article history
Saudi oil refinery. WikiLeaks cables suggest the amount of oil that can be retrieved has been overestimated. Photograph: George Steinmetz/Corbis

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels nearly 40%.

The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.

bennywizard · 9 February 2011

..."The turnbulls communicating with each other reminds us 40 acres would be risky, but 60 acres youd think is achievable"

Hey Condog, Are you saying there is information available that shows a production or pressure relationship between the wells at 80 acres? Do you know if any operators in the region have drilled closer than 80 acres successfully?

Go AUT! Can't wait for the end of this month's announcements

bennywizard · 9 February 2011

trader8888 said:
This vloume is really worrying me. Would hate a T/O at the moment. I think having listing on TSX might make it a little harder to T/O AUT though, anyone agree??

I just gave AUT a ring and asked to talk to Jon or anyone else from managment, but they were all in texes at the moment, must be the reserves report.

I hope they are negotiating a new acquisition

condog · 9 February 2011

Magic Man said:
Condog.. if AUT was taklen over by another company and say they offered $5.00 a share,... would that be a really bad thing?? Alot of people will make alot of money if the price tops $5.00??

Well im guessing those who paid 30%, 38% or 45% of thier capital gain would be spewwing.

Id be spewing cause they offer us a 51% premium which is $5.00 and they get our company in a matter of weeks, when realistically its likely to give us 100% in 12 months. Weve done the resesarch , weve taken the risk, weve backed the company thru its most difficult time and these pr###s get it for a tiny premium in an instant.

Just ask the ADI ex holders ho happy they are about being bought out. Most where or are livid.

condog · 9 February 2011

trader8888 said:
Got this off someone over at SSN

Only means one thing for AUT

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices US diplomat convinced by Saudi expert that reserves of world's biggest oil exporter have been overstated by nearly 40%

Share510 John Vidal, environment editor guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 February 2011 22.00 GMT Article history
Saudi oil refinery. WikiLeaks cables suggest the amount of oil that can be retrieved has been overestimated. Photograph: George Steinmetz/Corbis

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels nearly 40%.

The revelation comes as the oil price has soared in recent weeks to more than $100 a barrel on global demand and tensions in the Middle East. Many analysts expect that the Saudis and their Opec cartel partners would pump more oil if rising prices threatened to choke off demand.

Yes most would know im a firm advocate of peak oil. This is the exact reason im a believer, overstated reserves and in some instances reserves that have not changed for over 10 years, yet no new significant finds. Many imo are fudging the books, because it allows them a greater share of the export pie in the OPEC equations.

philly · 9 February 2011

Kremmen said:
But didn't you invest that money in AUT, or at least EKA?

Hey Kremmen, yes I topped up on AUT and took my wife on a short holiday to the Sunshine Coast. So everyone was . I don't have any regrets its just that I didn't like being bullied into selling

jancha said:
Philly if ADI was taken over by AWE why hasn't it jumped in value like AUT?

Jancha, both ADI & AUT were entirely focused on the EFS whereas AWE has fingers in many pies so its SP is balanced out over good and bad investments / results.
Also AUT'S interest in the EFS is much larger than ADI / AWE.
If ADI was still around today I would guess that its SP would be closer to EKA than AUT

I think that in AUT we have a very savvy board with a clear direction as to where they want to go and now that more wells are being drilled every month and the EFS is pretty much de-risked they have a licence to print money for all of us. Indeed the AUT story thus far is quite unbelievable a year ago you could have picked up shares for about 40cents. Others may know of other shares that have performed this well but for me this is one that in retirement I can tell my grandchildren all about

condog · 9 February 2011

bennywizard said:
..."The turnbulls communicating with each other reminds us 40 acres would be risky, but 60 acres youd think is achievable"

Hey Condog, Are you saying there is information available that shows a production or pressure relationship between the wells at 80 acres? Do you know if any operators in the region have drilled closer than 80 acres successfully?

Go AUT! Can't wait for the end of this month's announcements

Two of the turnbulls communicated, not sure of the exact spacing, but obviously too close. Currently i think 80 acres is the NSAI norm adopted and used. Eventually hilcorp willl drill a few closer ones and if successfull then the NSAI may increase the reserves in proportion to the spacing.

Right now its speculative, but i think most people generally accept 60 acres is achivable and 50 acres is possible. 40 acres imo is possible, but also may have issues. If i where a betting man id take the odds on 60 acres easy and 50 acres realistically. Thats imo still a very significant increase in reserves.

condog · 9 February 2011

philly said:
I think that in AUT we have a very savvy board with a clear direction as to where they want to go and now that more wells are being drilled every month and the EFS is pretty much de-risked they have a licence to print money for all of us. Indeed the AUT story thus far is quite unbelievable a year ago you could have picked up shares for about 40cents. Others may know of other shares that have performed this well but for me this is one that in retirement I can tell my grandchildren all about

SEA has been a similar performer, 10c a year ago and $1 today. Very similar story up in the Bakken and Niorabira shales. Very high quality mgt. I dont hold.

TXN scares me at present, but watch it closely, it could be the next one. In the next few weeks it will have 60 day declines and that will be very significant. If the 30 to 60 decline is good lots imo will buy. If its poor, look out.

Following that it will develop its second EFS horizontal and that will be watched closely as to whether its acerage is on early signs, crap or fantastic. Either way will have a huge effect imo on sp.

condog · 9 February 2011

jancha said:
I held ADI and the T/O bid was 42cents and that was about a year ago. Makes me cry thinking what it would be worth today

Philly if ADI was taken over by AWE why hasn't it jumped in value like AUT?

Because AWE is diluted by much poorer quality acerage and its ADI component is only one part of the company.

condog · 9 February 2011

Somebody let Proga know that if a TO does eventuate its something holders need to be mentally prepared for if they have any chance of holding it at bay. It takes a colaborative effort from all shareholders to not sell, possibly buy and hold tight against the tide of very short sighted sellers.

easylikesunday · 9 February 2011

condog said:
Well im guessing those who paid 30%, 38% or 45% of thier capital gain would be spewwing.

Id be spewing cause they offer us a 51% premium which is $5.00 and they get our company in a matter of weeks, when realistically its likely to give us 100% in 12 months. Weve done the resesarch , weve taken the risk, weve backed the company thru its most difficult time and these pr###s get it for a tiny premium in an instant.

Just ask the ADI ex holders ho happy they are about being bought out. Most where or are livid.

Im in the same boat as the rest of the AUT holders Condog but at the end of the day isn't this just a business deal?

Obviously this company is going places, so why wouldn't the big fish try and grab it for a tiny premium? They are after the profits too.

I think a few here would buy AUT too if they had a couple of billion in the bank account :

Its all about the cash at the end of the day. Thats what we are invested in AUT for.

shanti · 9 February 2011

(But I am biased: today is the anniversary of my first AUT investment.)

Hi Kremmen, I checked after reading your post and realised today is the anniversary of my first AUT investment as well - only bought 1K that day - it was my very first
stock market investment ever, followed by 1K in EKA, luckilly later I took part in SPP and topped up. It all went like a dream from there. Being such a newbie I still can't believe my luck

majorca · 10 February 2011

condog said:
Two of the turnbulls communicated, not sure of the exact spacing, but obviously too close. Currently i think 80 acres is the NSAI norm adopted and used. Eventually hilcorp willl drill a few closer ones and if successfull then the NSAI may increase the reserves in proportion to the spacing.

Right now its speculative, but i think most people generally accept 60 acres is achivable and 50 acres is possible. 40 acres imo is possible, but also may have issues. If i where a betting man id take the odds on 60 acres easy and 50 acres realistically. Thats imo still a very significant increase in reserves.

Condog,
(If you know the answer to clarify for me please) Just a question regarding the "communication" does that actually mean that the frac fluids reach the other wells or?

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

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