AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

condog · 8 February 2011

geelongfan, i think you might regret those words, just like everyone whos sold along the way hoping to buy on pullbacks, that rarely eventuate in sufficient longevity or depth to make money on.

There are a lot of tailwinds for this stock about to unfold.

Todays trade was again very high, id suggest we will get another significant notice tommorrow or in the next few days, particularly late afternoon.

Im now hoping its no longer Harbour advisors, as i think they are beginning to hold a parcel we need to begin to worry about. To easy to launch TO action once your up around 10%. Touch wood the stewarts and JP own enough to control any TO action.

The buy sell volumes have once again tipped in favour of sellers. 3:1, hopefully we will now see our next level of resistance established in the teens or 20's.

bennywizard · 8 February 2011

geelongfan said:
ugh.. i've been watching this stock as a newbie investor for a few weeks now. my commsec account finally opened up today but it seems like a bad idea to buy at a 52 week high.. bad timing i guess

With a good stock it doesn't work like that IMO. A good stock will keep going up so today's 52 week high could look like a bargain in a few weeks or months time. Sometimes you just need to jump in, maybe not with all your spare cash. If they do drop a little then you have another buying opportunity, if they go up quickly then at least you're in at some level. As condog and others have said, a lot of people have been left behind waiting for a pull back on this stock only to find it reach new highs before they bought.
It appears that there are at least 2 large companies now accumulating this stock so any time the price dips a little they will no doubt be topping up as well.

poverty · 8 February 2011

I agree with the last 2 posters. Happy I got in at 2.94, no point worrying now about how I should've got in earlier at whatever other price.

geelongfan · 8 February 2011

ok guys.. thanks for the comments..

anyway, remember i'm a complete noob (but i'm learning)

what is making the share price of AUT go so crazy lately? is it because it has been riding on the back of record profits (i haven't been able to find anything backing this)? or is it simply its potential to get a crazy amount of oil from current or future wells thanks to sound management and adept employees? if it is to do with a potential takeover, why would that be a bad thing?

my bad for noobing it up in here

Sharejon · 8 February 2011

Geelongfan,

I highly urge you to read AUT's latest investor presentations/quarterly report located on the asx.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=aut&timeframe=D&period=M

AUT isn't currently making profits, but is doing a tremendous job which will see AUT receiving profit's soon. The company plans on listing on the Canadian stock exchange in the next few months and I believe is expecting a new oil and gas reserves report by the end of this month.

Additionally, between mid-December and the present times, alot of the price movement has been due to the acquisition of higher working interests in producing acreages in their focus area of the Eagleford Shale.
Really, alot of the vital information is contained in the two documents I mentioned in my first sentence.

easylikesunday · 8 February 2011

Amazing to think the investors lucky enough to grab shares in the CR recently are about to double their money!

In what, 2 months?

I haven't even held for 3 months and Im sitting on 108%

Still got a long ride until my CGT date arrives...

condog · 8 February 2011

The story in brief for all noobs

AUT has most of the best well results in the entire EFS so far.
ITs been experimenting with different techniques and has dramatically improve declines
It owes hilcorp money for wells hilcorp paid up front for and we pay on a cost recovery basis
As such on the most recent quarterly cash flow is not shown as its being repayed to hilcorp.
Euroz project 5000boepd by end of 2011 and they value it at $3.60
In late feb it will be listed on the Toronto SX, which should increase sp
In late feb a new reserves report is due.
Theres then the possibility (some would say likelihood) that well spacing can be reduced from 80acres to perhaps as low as 40, in effect possibly doubling EUR's
They recently increased acerage by 50% which has had a terrific effect on sp, due to it effectively raising reserves by 50%, and they are looking for similar acqusitions going forward.
The accellerated the original 2010 drilling from 10 to 20 wells
They now accellerated the 2011 program to 60 wells and will have 4 wells on site about nowish, with a further 1-2 wells in coming weeks or months, which will drmatically accellerate results. Also bringing cash flow forward.
Hence theres a lot of expectation amongst this forum that late feb early march will see significant price action.

Assasin · 8 February 2011

geelongfan said:
ok guys.. thanks for the comments..

anyway, remember i'm a complete noob (but i'm learning)

what is making the share price of AUT go so crazy lately? is it because it has been riding on the back of record profits (i haven't been able to find anything backing this)? or is it simply its potential to get a crazy amount of oil from current or future wells thanks to sound management and adept employees? if it is to do with a potential takeover, why would that be a bad thing?

my bad for noobing it up in here

From one Geelong fan to another, can I advise that you alocate a few hours and go back to about page 30 of this thread and you will learn more about AUT than anything else. The company presentations are great but sometimes over the heads of the less experienced and this thread makes things easier to understand. Also, don't under-estimate the experience of the posters on this thread, they are right at the top of the game.
Good luck.

Hey Trader, have you kissed and made up with Mr Smith yet. He'd probably be feeling a little down in the dumps tonight.:

trader8888 · 8 February 2011

Assasin said:
From one Geelong fan to another, can I advise that you alocate a few hours and go back to about page 30 of this thread and you will learn more about AUT than anything else. The company presentations are great but sometimes over the heads of the less experienced and this thread makes things easier to understand. Also, don't under-estimate the experience of the posters on this thread, they are right at the top of the game.
Good luck.

Hey Trader, have you kissed and made up with Mr Smith yet. He'd probably be feeling a little down in the dumps tonight.:

HAHA no way. but i am liking his dis-approval of AUT, its seems to be working wonders since he posted his view.

Lol he had a SELL on ILU on AUG 9 2010 they are now up %76 since then. AUT might have crack at that record lol. Possible in 6 months, especially if we get another aquistion.

We might have to help the poor bloke out and send him a few tips. Another doozy was his hold recommendation on QBE

On another note OIL getting hammered ATM, due to egypt tension falling, and investories bulging. API is reporting tonight on their estimate for weekly oil inventories, then the official EIA report out wednesday night.

Kremmen · 8 February 2011

donteatme said:
The man must feel like an idiot. Reached a new 52 week high after his sell recommendation. Good work

At least one Euroz advisor has been suggesting very recently that clients take profits. ... Talk about playing both sides!

geelongfan said:
what is making the share price of AUT go so crazy lately?

In addition to what others have said, you might like to have a look at the ADI thread to see where things have come from. Take yourself back to the good old days of this time last year, when ADI was 20c and AUT was 38c. Much has changed, and not just stock prices.

condog · 9 February 2011

Pioneer added 12% to its reserves in 2010, El Paso added 22%. We are expecting i believe around 15% minimum and up to 25% im estimating. Euroz are estimating a hell of a lot higher then this. It could go higher if they factor in better then expected declines. We know from the last Euroz report that its certainly tracking well ahead of Euroz expectations.

$3.60 * 1.15 = $4.14

$3.60 * 1.25 = $4.50

On a purely % increase basis. It will be interesting to see what Euroz new valuation will be in early march. I think anyone that knows the play will be anticipating a decent figure.

Then later, perhaps in 6-12 months as they reduce well spacing they will possibly add another 25% if they go to 60 acre spacing, more if they go toward 50 or 40 acre well spacing. The turnbulls communicating with each other reminds us 40 acres would be risky, but 60 acres youd think is achievable.

Ad another 25% to $4.14 and $4.50

4.14 * 1.25 = $5.18
4.50 * 1.25 = $5.60

Then theres potential for oil and gas price increases as well. Say a 10% increase and we could be looking at potentially $6 plus in the next 12-18 months as a valuation

And that would be still carrying the 15% risk factor, that euroz has applied that we are well ahead of. If they chose to 1/2 that risk factor we could be talking a valuation of $6.40 plus.

This is all speculation, but it highlights to me why Canadians and other new players who have done thier research still see incredible value in AUT.

They dont see a 10 bagger, but they see imo some very derisked % growth.

Timpoo · 9 February 2011

Doesn't look like the drop in oil price has had much of a dampener effect on AUT's SP at open...

Sdajii · 9 February 2011

Timpoo said:
Doesn't look like the drop in oil price has had much of a dampener effect on AUT's SP at open...

It wasn't long ago that anything over $80 would have been thought of as high, and everyone knew that the recent prices just over $90 were only due to the fun and games in Egypt, and that it was probably fairly baseless and temporary. Oil is still over $85 per barrel, which is still bloody high (just walk down the street in your area and ask the first few people you see what they think of petrol prices! ).

The figures Euroz, AUT themselves, etc etc use for their predictions put oil at conservative levels, lower than the $85-92 range we've seen recently. If oil does sit there for a prolonged period of time and it becomes the new norm we might start seeing it more heavily reflected in valuations and the share price.

In the short term, the spikes in oil prices over $85-90 give us an opportunity to rapidly pay off Hillcorp etc, or put a bit of quick cash in the bank, but I don't think it's generally seen as a likely ongoing benefit to the company. I'm sure many investors are quietly hoping for $90-$120 oil to be the new norm though. If that happened, companies like AUT would get a healthy rerating.

On a different note, how cool is it to see AUT's price yesterday and today, smashing out two new 52 week highs immediately after the bearish calls from Euroz and Mr Kissy Smith! I chuckled when I saw the results of his last few sell calls, and it seems even funnier now!

Time for bananas?

shanti · 9 February 2011

I noticed large gains this morning before open, must be the Canadian co. Still their order has to go through (ASX ?) so why massive price change before 10am?

geelongfan · 9 February 2011

so after reading through a few reports from AUT and a good slog of this forum topic the noob investor (me) purchased some AUT stocks for $3.22 this morning (my first shares!). I put in only what I can afford to lose. But here's hoping that doesn't happen. I'm going to re-assess the situation after announcements come late feb and early march. Now I shall get back to reading 'the intelligent investor'!

Also, looks like todays trade will again be quite high..

condog · 9 February 2011

Yeh guys todays volume is very significant. ITs really p ing me off actually, cause if its still Harbour Advisors buying im starting to get very concerned about thier motives.

Should definitely be an announcment this arvo or in the morning, that volume is rediculously large.

Whats more no they are buying so obviously, im wondering why anyone in thier right mind would sell. If sellers hold tight, they are gunna see a price spike on this demand.

geelongfan · 9 February 2011

condog said:
Yeh guys todays volume is very significant. ITs really p ing me off actually, cause if its still Harbour Advisors buying im starting to get very concerned about thier motives.

Should definitely be an announcment this arvo or in the morning, that volume is rediculously large.

Whats more no they are buying so obviously, im wondering why anyone in thier right mind would sell. If sellers hold tight, they are gunna see a price spike on this demand.

If it is harbour advisors, why is it a bad thing? Why are potential take-over bids a horrible thing to see?

Magic Man · 9 February 2011

Condog.. if AUT was taklen over by another company and say they offered $5.00 a share,... would that be a really bad thing?? Alot of people will make alot of money if the price tops $5.00??

Mister Mark · 9 February 2011

I for one would hate to see a sucessful takeover, i want to see this go much higher and reach its full potential

geelongfan · 9 February 2011

Mister Mark said:
I for one would hate to see a sucessful takeover, i want to see this go much higher and reach its full potential

if a takeover occurred though what's to say the stock wont meet its full potential (surely that's what the takeover company would envision)?

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

Sdaji

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