AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

BrightGreenGlow · 16 January 2011

condog said:
imo wit out a doubt its going to either hold us flat for a bit or pull back a little bit for a while once the get released. After all its supply and demand in its most raw form.

But seeing whats just happened, it wont imo be pulling back far or for long.

Obviously everyones tax situations are different, but for most longer to medium term holders i doubt it will pull back far or long enough to warrant paying CGT. I really doubt their will be profitable trading for those whove owned them a while,

What i would say is i think it will provide a nice entry / top up point for those looking to get in or get more.

As youve seen with Tranch 1, it did hold the sp back slightly but it wasnt long. Each level cleared the sellers out progressively. Once those excess sellers are cleared, it rises rapidly and there appears imo to be no going back.

I honestly believe right now a chartists point of view is not going to be anything remotely close. ITs previous histrory of this stock and experience with it that continually prove to be more accurate. Weve had chartists in here before and theyve basically cost people money, because theyve been wrong.

This is true, the fundamentals are far to strong for any kind of reasonable chart to predict a pullback. Not are the fundamentals very easy to read (due to condogs insight and research providing) they are very strong.

donteatme · 16 January 2011

Do you guys recommend waiting till after Tranch 2 to buy in? Or just go in now?

Sdajii · 16 January 2011

donteatme said:
Do you guys recommend waiting till after Tranch 2 to buy in? Or just go in now?

Generally I'd be waiting, but in this case it's difficult to say. The share price just tends to go up lately. I was expecting a nice top up point when the last tranche went through, and all that happened was a massive jump up! This one will probably either hold us flat or pull as back a little, but it might only slow down the increase. Between tomorrow and the 25th there might be enough of an increase that any decrease (and there might not even be one) doesn't drop the share price down to where we are tomorrow anyway. Anyone who claims to know for sure is deluded or lying. One thing I'd be fairly confident about is that if you bought tomorrow you'd be paying less than if you could sell for within 2-4 months, and probably a lot less. Then again, I'd probably repeat the exact same sentence on the 25th or any day between.

*disclaimer - I'm an essentially anonymous person on the internet who for all you know has no clue what he is doing or is biased or generally up to no good and you shouldn't rely on anything I say, don't take my words as advice, don't cry to me if I'm wrong, etc etc etc.

shanti · 16 January 2011

Nothing new but I enjoyed reading this extract (borrowed from another forum thread):
"" Peak Oil
Peak oil is the point at which the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This has already happened in the US, Alaska and the North Sea. In the next few years Mexico will become an importer of oil and the US will lose its third largest supplier. Our fragile, highly indebted economy relies on this land based cheap oil to continue and it cannot withstand the shock of transitioning to more expensive alternatives. In September of 2010 a

German military think tank reported that the German government is taking the threat of peak oil seriously and preparing accordingly. Numerous studies around the world have concluded that we are very close to peak oil production, which will be accelerated due to gulf drilling bans.

This will lead to higher price inflation for most goods. This will be another blow to the fragile US economy, which currently pays less for oil and gas than any of the first world countries. When added to the effects of the waning strength of the petrodollar the results will be devastating.

May I remind you that if China, which currently has one tenth the number of cars per capita as Americans, was to reach par with the US, we would need, by one estimate, seven more Saudi Arabias to meet their needs.
These three mega trends will continue to lower the GDP, lower the tax revenue, create higher trade deficits, create higher unemployment, resulting in the need for further currency creation. This will cause inflation to rise as currencies depreciate in value and create higher universal debt. All of this means the gold price will continue to rise. ""

as quoted from:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25507.html

condog · 17 January 2011

donteatme - we cant make a reccomendation we are not qualified (hahhahhahah what a joke) and its against asx and asf rules.

As Sadjii says its so hard to tell. Normally in any other stock for sure it would be cheaper after issue of tranch 2. And ive no doubt some sort of slow down or minor pullback will occur post tranch 2 issue. But as for whether that will be cheaper then today, your guess is as good as anyones.

What i do expect though is that in 6 to 12 months you wont really care whether you wnet in today or in 2 weeks time. Thats just an opinion.

you got to remmebr right now we are approximately a whole $1 below its valuation, there arent too many stocks with a growth track record and projected growth like AUt hta you can buy $1 below its valuation.

condog · 17 January 2011

Shanti - yeh i posted that in here a month or two ago when it came out, but it doesnt hurt to remind people, as it unfolds it will be initially very good for EFS stocks.

Right now theres a plan emerging in the US to develop shale oil and gas with the help of govt somehow, either through subsidies, tax help or other. ITs apparently so the US can become unrelient on crazy countries dfor its energy needs and slash its defence budgets.

Its being pushed by Pickens the oil guru. apparently when he talks oil, congress usually acts. And right now hes singing from the roof tops about how the EFS and other shales can unlock US energy future.

condog · 17 January 2011

Shanti
Pretty easy to see the repetative post CR levels when you look at last weeks graph.

As each level of price the sellers dry up a new level is revealed , until eventually the bungy chord holding the stock back breaks.

The sellers dry up at a price, then the price increases, the sellers dry up at the new level and again up we go.

condog · 18 January 2011

AUT belts out another new high 3 days in a row. $3 is looking closer and with a min bull run again just prior to Tranch 2 release we may see $3 if theres similar buying all week??

BrightGreenGlow · 18 January 2011

Great result todya so far given that there was no US lead and crude fell half a cent. I'll be very happy with any gain today. So 3c + so far is great. Constant SP moving upwards is a message in itself that people aren't gonna wait for the 2nd offering to the funds. They see better value getting in now which I feel will constitute very minimal falls in SP next week.

condog · 18 January 2011

Big vote of confidence by JP Morgtan upping thier holding significantly from 8.5% to almost 10%

I guess they see the same growth and value that im looking for.

Kremmen · 18 January 2011

condog said:
Big vote of confidence by JP Morgtan upping thier holding significantly from 8.5% to almost 10%

I wonder where they're going with that? They're not necessarily the most benevolent group to have owning a large proportion of the company.

Mister Mark · 18 January 2011

Kremmen said:
I wonder where they're going with that? They're not necessarily the most benevolent group to have owning a large proportion of the company.

SP has been going forward i think at a faster rate than announcements, which is great, Morgans increasing their holding i just hope a TO is not in the wings, to much future i believe.

philly · 18 January 2011

condog said:
Big vote of confidence by JP Morgtan upping thier holding significantly from 8.5% to almost 10%

I guess they see the same growth and value that im looking for.

Kremmen said:
I wonder where they're going with that? They're not necessarily the most benevolent group to have owning a large proportion of the company.

I have had a closer look at the notice and make the following observations - JP Morgan purchased 8.22m additional shares in the period 20 December 2010 - 14 January 2011. Almost half of these, 3.8m, were acquired for $1.60 via a placement the remaining shares were acquired on market for prices between $2.03 and $2.61.

On todays close JPM is sitting on a substantial profit achieved in less than one month.
Whilst I agree with Condog that JPM, like all holders, can see growth and value in AUT I also share Kremmen's concern that JPM is not necessarily a holder that I want on the AUT books.

With nearly 10% of the shares in AUT one can only guess whether JPM is likely to be a holder or a trader. Which ever way it chooses to go will have an impact on the SP. If it is a holder then there will be 10% less shares on the market and if demand remains the SP goes up. If it is a trader then it can through its volume put downward pressure on the SP. Either way we need to be alert. All IMHO and DYOR

philly · 19 January 2011

Mister Mark said:
SP has been going forward i think at a faster rate than announcements, which is great, Morgans increasing their holding i just hope a TO is not in the wings, to much future i believe.

Published on www.upstreamonline.com on 18 January 2011 06:37 GMT

Gail on the hunt for US shale
State-run Gail India is scouting for shale gas assets in the US and is willing to invest up to $500 million.
Gail is likely to look at an asset that was already in production and would be open to either investing in an asset or picking up equity in specific companies, the Mint newspaper reported, citing two unnamed people familiar with the development.

The report added that the company was open to partner another state-run oil and gas company for the planned venture.

The paper said Gail had issued a request for proposals last month from merchant bankers who can help it identify potential targets and eventually close a deal.

Gail officials could not be immediately reached for a comment.

I guess that any time that "US SHALE" is mentioned then EFS must come into the discussion and by implication ALL the companies that have acreage there.
I also guess that any time "merchant bankers" is mentioned then maybe JP MORGAN comes into the discussion. Or maybe if not JP MORGAN bankers like to gossip.

I don't know anything but IMO the timing is very interesting .

Personally, I don't want a TO in the short term as IMHO I don't believe holders would get fair compensation given the increased activity that AUT has planned for the next 12 months.

condog · 19 January 2011

Gail must be a bunch of suckers, there gunna pay a merchant banker probably $100M to close the deal for them . When if they just popped in here theyd quickly know that EKA would be a fantastic target.

donteatme · 19 January 2011

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Strong sell recommended by Stoxline.

zzaaxxss3401 · 19 January 2011

donteatme said:
http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=aut&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Strong sell recommended by Stoxline.

Good - time to buy a few more shares after it drops.

donteatme · 19 January 2011

Exactly what I was thinking. I've got the money ready to go, just waiting for the right time to enter

donteatme · 19 January 2011

Who is the Tranch 2 getting sold to? Is it to existing shareholders?

Sorry about the noob question. Bit new to all this and I can't find any info on it.

condog · 20 January 2011

donteatme said:
Who is the Tranch 2 getting sold to? Is it to existing shareholders?

Sorry about the noob question. Bit new to all this and I can't find any info on it.

ITs already allocated to institutional investors through the $120M CR done recently. The shares if approved (which they will be) get issued around the 25th Jan.

AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

Sdaji

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