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Australian Banks exposure to bad debts


It will be interesting when interest rates rise repeatedly later this year and early next year.
 
..........Bank of America Corp., the third-biggest manager of bond sales in the U.S., is telling clients to unload corporate bonds because of concern that ``housing-led weakness'' may spread. A month ago, the firm, citing what it called a ``Goldilocks'' economy, recommended buying company debt.......

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anfMB9SdI9u4&refer=exclusive

While I was doing research around the various financial sites I became aware of a big disconnection with what's happening in the stockmarkets & what is actually happing in the real world. This paragraph above is a little bit of a concern, when such a large institution is taking such action, at the same time as the DOW was at one stage up over 100 points, & ends up 70 points higher.

I think the speed of this 'secondary wave ' of correction will be mindblowing!.
 
It is also worth remembering that many non-deposit holding Bank lenders are completely securitised, ie all loans are approved under an LMI contract (although below 80% LVR the lender covers the cost of LMI).

This means that the rise in default rates means the bad loans move off the balance sheet but there is no impact on recovery costs (LMI covers the lender, not the borrower).

Worth also noting that RAMS are lending at almost 0% profit margins, as they are close to a sale and an increase in their loan book size will increase their purchase price.
 
The default auction rate comparing Dec 05 & Dec 06 tripled in Sydney, and as a consequence LMI providers (there are only two currently operating in Australia) have tightened their guidelines.

The sub-prime market could be in some trouble, although in Australia the prime mortgage markets are the most competitive so sub-prime lenders operate on larger margins so as to cusion some of the fall. It is some comfort to know we are in better shape in the US (in mortgage terms) for exposure to credit.
 
RISING interest rates and record debt levels are taking their toll on the nation's lenders with mortgage payments more than 30 days in arrears hitting a 10-year high in December.
Figures released by Moody's Investors Service showed that delinquencies rose strongly in October and November before jumping again in December to 1.26 per cent of outstanding loan balances - the highest level since data was first collected in 1997.

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,21349237-462,00.html
 
This week St George?

 
The RBA has changed the rules of engagement.

 
So the apparent relentless sell down of Aussie banks has not been without reason as it appears.....

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23338906-601,00.html
 
I only hope that the Government does not try and bail a Bank out. The U.K. now have over A$230 billion at stake in the bail out of Northern Rock and two more Banks are looking shakey.
I saw a programme that showed the Icelandic Bank as one of high risk Banks that are offering very high interest rates round the world.

If a Bank goes down then the pieces are picked up cheaply by other Banks, and bankruptcy ends the debt problems.
Those with money invested in a foreign Bank may find the safeguards far less than with an Aussie Bank or Institution.
 

do they need subprime? when you have Allco, Centro, ABS, MFS, City Pacific and many more going belly up
 
do they need subprime? when you have Allco, Centro, ABS, MFS, City Pacific and many more going belly up

I assume up till now the public face of the negativity was due to these issues. Now it's becoming public knowledge of the extent of the banks exposure to their very own 'sub prime' sector. Those on the inside, and a poster on this forum once, have known the real story all along.

It's obviously only going to compound the issue now.
 

Bankruptcy might well end the debt problems for the collapsing bank, but what about the many, many creditors and businesses who would be relying on that failing bank to pay THEM back to avoid their own liquidity crisis or bankruptcy? There would be a BIG ongoing domino effect of related creditor's business closures/bankruptcies if a medium to large bank were to go under - hence the seemingly over-the-top efforts by governments to forestall such a dire event.

AJ
 
So the apparent relentless sell down of Aussie banks has not been without reason as it appears.....

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23338906-601,00.html

From the same article ...

"Dun & Bradstreet has also discovered that, every three months, Australia's lending institutions extend almost $1billion in so-called sub-prime loans to customers with poor credit history and whose previous defaults were not picked up in the credit-checking process".

Given what has been happening in world financial markets over the last six months, you would think these Oz clowns would tighten up their lending act...

BTW, I wonder how companies like Harvey Norman can continue to offer "NO payments or interest for 3 years" type loans for the latest digital goodies... don't those sort of "deals" just push the whole credit envelope a bit far?

AJ
 

Fair comment Aussiejeff, and even Dr Marc Faber, who went as far as to suggest that the US Citibank may be in trouble. Did say the Federal Government would have to bail them out.
What happens if three or four Banks and Institutions are in trouble in Australia: Does the Federal Government risk $500 billion to bail them out?
 

No probs.... apparently the Government has about $51 Billion in the Future Fund it could burn! LOL

Oh.... but that leaves a shortfall of......
 
Overnight from the US:

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - "Wall Street banks are facing a "systemic margin call" that may deplete banks of $325 billion of capital due to deteriorating subprime U.S. mortgages", JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), said in a report late on Friday.

JPMorgan, which sent a default notice to Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) after the lender missed a $28 million margin call, said more default notices and margin calls were likely. The Carlyle Group's mortgage fund also failed to meet $37 million in margin calls this week.

"A systemic credit crunch is underway, driven primarily by bank writedowns for subprime mortgages," according to the report co-authored by analyst Christopher Flanagan. "We would characterize this situation as a systemic margin call."


Gotta love the new terminology being invented by financial whizkids in an attempt to explain the state of the New World ....

Read the full misery here...

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0832645120080308

I suspect there is going to be not much light at the end of the ever-lengthening long, dark tunnel then, for our own banks.

*Sigh*


AJ
 
hi, a few questions if i may.

doesn't all this just flush away the virtual money that the banks created, returning the financial system to realistic valuations? this is a good thing overall isn't it?

won't the banks will come out of this better off, having received the actual assets of defaulting borrowers in return for "money" they conjured out of thin air?

if banks needed to be bailed out it would be on actual assets and savings wouldn't it, not whatever bullsh1t figure they concocted with pretend money?
 
Good Read/find Aussiejeff .....


Interesting that article JPMorgan has revised expected House price drops upwards to 30pc, currently they have seen a drop of 14pc.

Much more carnage to come ...
 
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