AUK - AuMake Limited

Titan Energy Services Limited (TTN) provides oil and gas field services including operation of portable camps and drilling rigs and related supporting services including equipment hire, transport and logistics.

http://www.titanenergyservices.com.au

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

I'm surprised by the lack of attention this stock has had given that it as gone up 500% in since the last (and only post) this time last year. It's ASX Preliminary Final Report for Year Ended 30 June 2013 was released on Wednesday.

The report can be seen by clicking on the link below.

www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TTN&E=ASX&N=748198

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Up another 8.5% today. I'm surprised it hasn't received a speeding ticket yet

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

piggybank said:

Up another 8.5% today. I'm surprised it hasn't received a speeding ticket yet

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There's no need for a speeding ticket when the market is simply working through the report TTN did last week...

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Adding this stock to watchlist out of interest, what are peoples thoughts on it at this stage?

To far to fast?

Report is promising though

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Update

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Time to revisit TTN

Has found a solid base, wedging in very tightly and momentum indicators moving up.

Has anybody else seen this potential break out?

$2.30....... watch this space

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

mojowo said:

Time to revisit TTN

Has found a solid base, wedging in very tightly and momentum indicators moving up.

Has anybody else seen this potential break out?

$2.30....... watch this space

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I don't see any indication on the TTN chart that it is showing any signs of being about to break out. It has been range trading between $2 and $2.60 on relatively low volume for the last four months, after declining rapidly from a high in late October of around $3.60.

It looks to be going nowhere IMO.

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

mojowo said:

Time to revisit TTN. Has found a solid base, wedging in very tightly and momentum indicators moving up. Has anybody else seen this potential break out?

$2.30....... watch this space

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Hi mojowo,

Sorry but I have to concur with StockGURU that I don't see any evidence to suggest a potential breakout.

Maybe you would be as kind as to post a chart with the evidence you spoke about, or one would have to assume you are just ramping up the stock with no valid case.

PB

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

piggybank said:

Hi mojowo,

Sorry but I have to concur with StockGURU that I don't see any evidence to suggest a potential breakout.

Maybe you would be as kind as to post a chart with the evidence you spoke about, or one would have to assume you are just ramping up the stock with no valid case.

PB

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I'm seeing macds making higher highs, and price making higher lows.

Does this really mean nothing??????

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Ouch down almost 70% or so.... Contracts dried up.. Time to buy? Haha

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

kingink said:

Ouch down almost 70% or so.... Contracts dried up.. Time to buy? Haha

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Watched it when it opened after the announcement... the market depth had 200k to sell @ $1.18, and zero bids.

You can't even short it if you wanted to. Not a single bid.

Shades of CGH April 2013. And I'd suspect the subsequent share price movement would plot a similar course.

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Very interesting.

A fund manager I like to follow (PIE Funds http://www.piefunds.co.nz/) were into this in a big way - I wonder if they got out in time? Especially given their concentrated holdings it could have a real drag on their otherwise outstanding performance over the last 5 years.

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Huskar said:

Very interesting.

A fund manager I like to follow (PIE Funds http://www.piefunds.co.nz/) were into this in a big way - I wonder if they got out in time? Especially given their concentrated holdings it could have a real drag on their otherwise outstanding performance over the last 5 years.

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These small cap fund managers did very well being concentrated in small stocks while there was a run in that space over the last 18 months or so...but now we've seen RFL suprise The Boat Fund and now TTN suprise PIE..

I just don't get why you'd be holding a substantial position in a mining service co. with the current environment...I mean we saw so many stocks do this exact same pattern last year...first they start with a half that doesnt show expected growth and they forecast a stronger 2H..then that doesnt come...then well...you know the rest

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

VSntchr said:

These small cap fund managers did very well being concentrated in small stocks while there was a run in that space over the last 18 months or so...but now we've seen RFL suprise The Boat Fund and now TTN suprise PIE..

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I always thought those guys were buy and hold (TBF) but they seem to churn their fund relentlessly. I wonder what the after tax return is. Some of their reasoning seems a bit out of whack and they seem to be a bit more high risk than their marketing spiel, imo, but I guess posting your buys on social media provides a pretty good floor to the price.

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Here is the report as mentioned above:-

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TTN&E=ASX&N=821149

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

I listened to the OpenBriefing recording last night. A few things jumped out at me.

1. They said that one of the accomodation contracts were terminated early because the associated project completed early. They were given 2 weeks notice while they are still liable for the lease cost (of the accommodation equipment I presume). That doesn't sound like a terribly fair business model?

2. They keep having this footnote that the EBIT forecast excludes "contingent" payment of $1.8m to key personnel under a previous acquisition. The note made it sounded like it may or may not be payable. But on the call it was revealed that the only condition was that those key personnel needs to stay until the end of the financial year. Surely no one would be silly enough to not hang in there for a few months and get paid $1.9m. Isn't there some accounting rules around what is deemed "contingent"?

3. They usually enter a new year with ~20-25% of revenue in secured. This seems a lot lower than what one'd initially assume for a mining accommodation hire business.

4. It is clear that every analysts were worried if the revised EBIT can be achieved, or if this is the first 1 of 3 downgrades. My guess is that management is forecasting the same way as they've always have been (noting point 3 above), but the underlying market moves around them will make the forecasting quite variable.

Which leads me to wonder... if a cyclical business has a history of beating its own forecast (and everyone loves it on the way up), then it seems that it is just as likely to miss expectations when the market enters cyclical downturn. I guess it also depends on the degree of management conservatism to some extent.

McLovin said:

I always thought those guys were buy and hold (TBF) but they seem to churn their fund relentlessly. I wonder what the after tax return is. Some of their reasoning seems a bit out of whack and they seem to be a bit more high risk than their marketing spiel, imo, but I guess posting your buys on social media provides a pretty good floor to the price.

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They picked a great period to start the fund - early 2013 was the beginning of the great run and some of the more speculative and high growth companies were re-rated aggressively (MNW, NEA, MBE, RFL, GBT were a few that come to mind). But give them credit also for having some pretty decent picks as well. The test will come when there's a market-wide de-rating of these micro caps. They might face redemptions combined with low liquidities which essentially feed on itself in the form of lower unit prices and more redemptions.

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

skc said:

They picked a great period to start the fund - early 2013 was the beginning of the great run and some of the more speculative and high growth companies were re-rated aggressively (MNW, NEA, MBE, RFL, GBT were a few that come to mind). But give them credit also for having some pretty decent picks as well. The test will come when there's a market-wide de-rating of these micro caps. They might face redemptions combined with low liquidities which essentially feed on itself in the form of lower unit prices and more redemptions.

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Sure well played to them. But I'll walk backwards to Perth if in 18 months time they've done another 60%. Like you said they've hit a real sweetspot for microcaps, especially in the IT space, which won't persist forever. And these sort of posts on their FB page do seem a bit rampish...

the Fund and we will also be disclosing the biggest holding currently in the fund.

This company has never been mentioned here before, and is very much under the radar. Yet we believe it can be a Billion dollar business in the near future!

Until then, can anyone guess which company it is?

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It will be interesting to see what happens to the price of this, as yet undisclosed, company when they tell us who it is.

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

Another trading halt.
I can only imagine the words coming out of holders mouths as they see the reason: guidance and general trading update :cussing::shoot::chainsaw::swear:

I highly doubt this will be positive.

Re: TTN - Titan Energy Services

VSntchr said:

Another trading halt.
I can only imagine the words coming out of holders mouths as they see the reason: guidance and general trading update :cussing::shoot::chainsaw::swear:

I highly doubt this will be positive.

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I am surprised that WDS didn't take a hit today. They seems to be in a downgrade competition with TTN.