I think that if the hike goes to 100bp the market will react to the upsideWhat I'm hearing is, if the hike is 75bp the market will most likely react to the upside and if it's 100bp then react to the downside. Just what people are saying.
I would have thought that it would be the other way around.What I'm hearing is, if the hike is 75bp the market will most likely react to the upside and if it's 100bp then react to the downside. Just what people are saying.
I think that if the hike goes to 100bp the market will react to the upside
and If it's 75bp the Market will find new lows
I would have thought that it would be the other way around.
I would have thought that it would be the other way around.
Yes that post was a spur-of-the-moment quickie. I was actually commenting on the $SPX/SPY part of @ducati916 's post. I've done this before, ie rushed a post, I promise to be more careful in the future.
What I'm hearing is, if the hike is 75bp the market will most likely react to the upside and if it's 100bp then react to the downside. Just what people are saying.
I took "the market" to mean the Bond Market, The big guy. Not the secondary currency marketsRushed or not, it may be correct.
A 75 bp rise may calm the market whereas a 100 bp one may in fact spook it.
gg
The downside prevails as long as 0.6496 is resistance. Analyst giving in to the downside pressure on the AUD, I concur Monthly and Weekly Chart showing more and more dominance of downside prevailing as the days go bye. May see some upside into next week. Falling back into lows of Feb 2020, Despite the depression alternative scenario Above 0.6496, look for 0.6531 and 0.6553.Expect only a feeble rebound. My 2c LOWER..... 0.623/0.643 range on the weekly chart projection. Monthly projection range is 0.608/0.638. So we have overlapping ranges in these 2 timeframes. When it approches 0.643 will re analyse , but ultimately price and momentum will hopefully tell us. For now I hold my USD especially since SPX and indices look so weak.
I’m just wondering how far the Aussie can fall going forward to about Christmas Day which is special for me what with family getting together and presents.Interestingly 4 year Nominal cycle using 100 week offset calling for sub 60c ultimately. Sort of lines up with the 0.608 expected from the monthly dynamic cyclesView attachment 147338
Should meet just under 60, no other downward cycle projections thereafter. Basically will follow SPX. "It's all the same market atm"I’m just wondering how far the Aussie can fall going forward to about Christmas Day which is special for me what with family getting together and presents.
View attachment 147771
It’s lost 15% this year.
How low can it go given the mess the USA is heading towards, before recovering.
gg
Got close!Should meet just under 60, no other downward cycle projections thereafter. Basically will follow SPX. "It's all the same market atm"
View attachment 147863
Got close!
Here's the past 20 years or so:
View attachment 152116
A massive AUD fall early into 2020's covid's pandemic was followed by a recovery over the next 12 months.
Covid jitters and global market pessimism sank our dollar again into late 2022, before a strong recovery got underway in mid-October.
With China possibly returning to pre-pandemic manufacturing levels our mining sector may well prop up the dollar as this year rolls along. I won't be surprised to see 81.5cents hit towards year's end.
This is my take on it. Btw I sold all my Aussie Gold mining shares (AGMS) a while ago, missing recent tops, but making a good profit anyways. I do have a US outfit in my portfolio.So, what's happened now? Has the bubble burst? Or is it intact? I'm devoid of comprehension today......
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