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AUD/USD

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AUD went sideways yesterday after deliberating which way it was going all day, currently on a high ranging low. Be looking for a breakout today. Analyst have suggested a break towards 0.6798 bouncing of pivot point 0.6702 a far call but if it breaks long I might be expecting something higher say 0.68440. Should momentum pick up,. Might be a long day for that to happen? I'm a bit skeptical on going long and think it may well be short again below 0.6702 looking for 0.6648...

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The break above the 50 area on the RSI would call for further upside. Moreover, the pair is trading under its 20 period moving average (0.6737) but above its 50 period moving average (0.6733).

Our preference:
Rise to 0.6798.

Alternative scenario:
The downside breakout of 0.6702 would call for 0.6669 and 0.6648.

 
Following on from my last post, I've come with an assumption that with analyst suggesting a rise to 0.6798 after going short to 0.6702 acting as pivot point. And with the slow momentum at present, and pressure the AUD is under, giving the economic inflation rate USD, that 0.6798 would act as a new pivot point to go short, late in the evening, looking for 0.6669. Sited by the orange line?

 
AUD collapsing yesterday on a spiral south, due to inflation pressure it would seem. Running on higher momentum, but low RSI, how long will it keep this up (crash). Looking for shorter target 0.6630'. Alternative scenario: Above 0.6726 resistance?

The RSI is below 50. The MACD is negative and below its signal line. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6720 and 0.6739).

 
Last edited:
AUD/USD currently probing the July lows around 0.6680 as Gov Lowe's speech gets underway.

Should be interesting to see how the market reacts, and whether hawkish comments can help the pair hold support at this level.
 
CityIndex said:
AUD/USD currently probing the July lows around 0.6680 as Gov Lowe's speech gets underway.

Should be interesting to see how the market reacts, and whether hawkish comments can help the pair hold support at this level.
Click to expand...
Indeed.

However the genie is out of the bottle and nobody knows what will happen or where any index, commodity, rate or asset will go.

Chaos.

I'll just go against the panic, as panic is contagious, and I would hate to catch anything going down.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
However the genie is out of the bottle and nobody knows what will happen or where any index, commodity, rate or asset will go.
Click to expand...

A lot of markets look like they could be in for some choppy, range-bound trading over the near-term as a variety of factors affecting the global recession outlook continue to develop.

Of course, as you said nobody knows what will happen. All trading carries risk, and while there could be a bounce after the recent sell-off, this move could just as easily extend lower if sentiment continues to deteriorate.
 
Has the AUD compounded enough support to break near term resistance 0.6723 later in the day, if not this morning. Analyst have suggested for this to happen providing 0.6681 is support. Sticking with the theme of Inflation pressure, I'm a bit wary to go long and be keeping a close watch on a break below 0.6681 support to go short. Or will there be further sideways ranging for the day ?

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is above its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6695 and 0.6696).

 
Picking up the potential for a further sell to go short. The strength of the AUD pairs deviating sideways is shallow and wants to fall unless divergence north. That appears unlikely looking at the 1hr chart analysis suggest a collapse south in the near term stay with the inflation pressure...

 
The following is straight from the Barchart website:

"The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 100% Sell with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is in highly oversold territory. Beware of a trend reversal."
 
Sorry Dave:
100% sell of ?? AUD/USD Sell so 100% AUD is going to fall? or the opposite..
Not playing smartarse but here i miss the context
But very happy to have discovered that site after your post:

Advanced Search - Barchart.com

Barchart.com Inc. is the leading provider of real-time or delayed intraday stock and commodities charts and quotes. Keep tabs on your portfolio, search for stocks, commodities, or mutual funds with screeners, customizable chart indicators and technical analysis.
www.barchart.com
If you select opinion, you get the various info which i find quite useful
 
qldfrog said:
Sorry Dave:
100% sell of ?? AUD/USD Sell so 100% AUD is going to fall? or the opposite..
Click to expand...
Yes this is the AUD/USD pair that they are talking about here.

qldfrog said:
But very happy to have discovered that site after your post:
Click to expand...
I thought it was very a well known site. I find it very good for all sorts of info, it takes a while to find all it's secrets, I keep finding more useful info as I look deeper into the site.
 
Yesterday the AUD met support, 0.6681 to rebound long as suggested no quite meeting it's take profit target but a rebound none the less. Today Analyst are calling for another retracement south to as far as 0.6693. This is a difficult call if the AUD was to go long as expected. I would place my support pivot point at 0.6706 should there be a resurgence. Alternative Scenario I would go short below 0.6706... Interesting to watch and see how it pans out!..

The RSI is above 50. The MACD is positive and above its signal line. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6696 and 0.6702).

 
The AUD in a jig saw pattern, contempt to go side by side in a healthy sized range. edging north, So one one would only permit it to go long today after going south yesterday. Rebound towards 0.6764. suggested to take from pivot point 0.6657. Alternative Scenario below 0.6657, look for 0.6598...

The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The configuration is mixed. Moreover, the price is trading under both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 0.6695 and 0.6711).
 
Yes all the markets are waiting for the Fed meeting tonight 4am, then they will react and then settle in to whatever comes next.
 
DaveTrade said:
Yes all the markets are waiting for the Fed meeting tonight 4am, then they will react and then settle in to whatever comes next.
Click to expand...
It's continuing to test support around 0.6680, which is likely to be a key pivot point having held as the previous low in July.

After last week's US inflation data surprised to the upside, the Fed could now be looking at extending the length of their tightening cycle. Combined with yesterday's RBA minutes outlining the case for a slower pace of rate hikes, AUD/USD may be exposed to a significant breakdown below this level on the two central bank's policy divergence.

All trading carries risk, but it will be extremely interesting to what the ultimate outcome of the FOMC Meeting is, and how markets react.
 
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