AUD/USD

Whiskers · 23 September 2010

OldFart said:
You use daily charts? Isn't that a little risky?

Why so?

I use 1 and 5 min charts while in a position, with ocassional reference to 15 and 30 min, 1 and 4 hr. I have a setup where I can look at all time frames together.

I suppose I should mention I follow other indicators not copied here. Often I get a sense of direction from the price action and indicators as it transposes through the time frames.

The above daily I use in conjunction with a weekly for the bigger picture... which I'm trying to get a handle on again.

The sentiment has been bullish for parity again, but my sense is cautious that it's a tad overdone atm largely on the back of US monetry policy and weak USD. The AUD pushing through parity in a hurry would also cause some concerns for the RBA. So the issue for me is, what is going to trip the market and who will blink first.

Uncle Festivus · 23 September 2010

A tad overdone you reckon Whiskers? I've gone short when it hit 96! Just too much priced in over 25bp interest rate rise that may or may not happen, and the China syndrome continuing ad nauseum?

OldFart · 23 September 2010

Whiskers said:
Why so?

I use 1 and 5 min charts while in a position, with ocassional reference to 15 and 30 min, 1 and 4 hr. I have a setup where I can look at all time frames together.

I suppose I should mention I follow other indicators not copied here. Often I get a sense of direction from the price action and indicators as it transposes through the time frames.

The above daily I use in conjunction with a weekly for the bigger picture... which I'm trying to get a handle on again.

The sentiment has been bullish for parity again, but my sense is cautious that it's a tad overdone atm largely on the back of US monetry policy and weak USD. The AUD pushing through parity in a hurry would also cause some concerns for the RBA. So the issue for me is, what is going to trip the market and who will blink first.

I'm sorry. I misunderstood. I thought you strictly went by daily charts. Good play by the way...

prawn_86 · 23 September 2010

I think we are very close to the high on the pair.

To me it appears that we are trading mainly on sentiment, and a few technicals, but definitely not fundamentals. All fundy indicators point to the AUD being over-valued, but we all know that they dont mean much in the shorter term.

Personally i wouldnt be surprised to see a drop towards the 0.93 mark over the next couple weeks, and hence am advising my clients to lock away >50% of their exposure for the next 3 - 6 months

Boggo · 23 September 2010

Am having a play with RT data from Metatrader to MTPredictor at the moment to see how these signals play out.

It seems to have picked on what you are saying on the 15 min chart.

(click to expand)

Boggo · 23 September 2010

First target hit...

(click to expand)

johnnyg · 23 September 2010

Nice Trade Boggo.

Boggo · 23 September 2010

johnnyg said:
Nice Trade Boggo.

Thanks johnnyg.

Actually I have only got one tenth of the value displayed on the chart on this trade, just doing some trials on standard (TS3 in particular) signals in different time frames.
I find that even using small $ amounts to start with make it more realistic than just doing it on paper.

Waiting patiently for the setup to arrive seems to be the way so far.

Whiskers · 24 September 2010

Uncle Festivus said:
A tad overdone you reckon Whiskers? I've gone short when it hit 96! Just too much priced in over 25bp interest rate rise that may or may not happen, and the China syndrome continuing ad nauseum?

Well, maybe a few 'tads'.

prawn_86 said:
I think we are very close to the high on the pair.

To me it appears that we are trading mainly on sentiment, and a few technicals, but definitely not fundamentals. All fundy indicators point to the AUD being over-valued, but we all know that they dont mean much in the shorter term.

Personally i wouldnt be surprised to see a drop towards the 0.93 mark over the next couple weeks, and hence am advising my clients to lock away >50% of their exposure for the next 3 - 6 months

Yes, I think that's likely the first stop off... at least if the H&S on the hourly turns out.

Boggo said:
Thanks johnnyg.

Actually I have only got one tenth of the value displayed on the chart on this trade, just doing some trials on standard (TS3 in particular) signals in different time frames.
I find that even using small $ amounts to start with make it more realistic than just doing it on paper.

Waiting patiently for the setup to arrive seems to be the way so far.

Me too Boggo. I did paper trading for awhile and it's easy to get over confident and over committed to a position. But when you have actual cash on the line it tends to 'make you feel different'... in the guts.

Boggo · 24 September 2010

Whiskers said:
Me too Boggo. I did paper trading for awhile and it's easy to get over confident and over committed to a position. But when you have actual cash on the line it tends to 'make you feel different'... in the guts.

Most definitely, having to think about placing actual stops, holding positions overnight etc etc are some of the items that I personally cannot apply the same attention to if paper trading.

Paper trading is like walking a tightrope while it is lying on the ground.

Boggo · 27 September 2010

Gonna get stopped out here in a minute...

(click to expand)

prawn_86 · 27 September 2010

This strength is really surprising, sentiment is a powerful factor!

Personally im still hoping we drop off (for my clients sake) but dont have any active personal trades out at the moment

Boggo · 27 September 2010

prawn_86 said:
This strength is really surprising, sentiment is a powerful factor!

Personally im still hoping we drop off (for my clients sake) but dont have any active personal trades out at the moment

Possibility of a drop, this the 4 hour chart, can it repeat the previous pattern ?

(click to expand)

Wysiwyg · 27 September 2010

Some simple lines (a pennant maybe) from the hourly and am readying for the breach of upper or lower. A thrust upward is my bias but ready for either.

Boggo · 28 September 2010

It took a bit of doing but it got there eventually after I bailed out and went to bed.

(click to expand)

Whiskers · 28 September 2010

Whiskers said:
If my preferred EW count is correct it should reverse anytime soon... before .96773.

I'm out of the market atm waiting for a sign! :venus:

Anyone got a good sign?

Finally I might have my sign... an Enening Star... maybe!

prawn_86 said:
This strength is really surprising, sentiment is a powerful factor!

Personally im still hoping we drop off (for my clients sake) but dont have any active personal trades out at the moment

I'm a bit surprised with the continued strength also, prawn. It's giving my EW count a tense time... but that .96773 max is still good.

My EW count has gotta be right!

doctorj · 28 September 2010

You guys may find this interesting. AUD is described as a "one way bet"...

toot toot

Whiskers · 29 September 2010

doctorj said:
You guys may find this interesting. AUD is described as a "one way bet"...

toot toot

We'll blame them for the overzealous optermism in Aus atm.

But back to my analysis, expressed in EW on the hourly chart as a measuring stick of sorts, .96783 not .96773 as above (after ckecking my maths) has been breached... but my count is still valid because after exhaustive consultation with the mass 'psyche' I've got wave 'v' ending on the 22nd and this latest upward thrust as part of an expanded flat correction (EW wave count applies to the end points of waves)... yes I got us in the 'b' wave on the correction.

We just need another little up leg to finish the 5, 3, 5 'b' leg... then I think I'll get in for the ride down, and down she will go to maybe .92ish, I hope.

MRC & Co · 30 September 2010

I've got a 'feeling' tonight will see the squeeze in USD shorts accross most of the G10 pairs (except perhaps against the JPY).

professor_frink · 5 October 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...st-rate-unchanged-at-4-5-for-fifth-month.html

Australia Unexpectedly Keeps Rates Unchanged; Currency Drops

Australia’s central bank unexpectedly left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight month, triggering the biggest drop in the local dollar in almost two months amid signs of cooling domestic demand.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens kept the overnight cash rate target at 4.5 percent, as forecast by only six of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, the RBA’s statement showed in Sydney today. Stevens added that higher borrowing costs will likely be needed “at some point.”

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AUD/USD

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