skc
Goldmember
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- 12 August 2008
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Looks like October was a good month for us all, Nov I'm out of action due to a long needed holiday. While travelling what came to my mind is that it's quite feasible to trade the ASX while living in another country, especially in Asia, it's only a 7 to 1 shift and I can be off to enjoy the cheap eats and great night life.
Perhaps a Tim Ferris inspired 4-hour work week would fit this business well. I think there is a term like "geographical arbitrage" where you sell your product skill where it can fetch the most money, while drawing your supplies from the cheapest location and then also living somewhere cheap. For memory the example in the book I am referring to was to sell clothes in America by importing from China all the while living in Mexico.
Actually, its my partner who drags me aroundYou guys are obviously single
This part you nailed!with no kids
You guys are obviously single with no kids
PTF has gone wacky this morning. It started out working fine, but at about 11am the prices reverted to yesterdays close and are not updating...am I solo in this problem or is it Yahoo feed related?
As for pairs, the AREITs are proving quite unpredictable for me this month. ABP is outperforming, IOF seems to have had its takeover speculation cool off a bit and MGR is underperforming...perhaps the market wanted and upgrade yesterday. Not that I usually have the ability to pen the direction of these stocks, moreso that they are not complying with my expectations of mean reversion.
All-in-all, unless the last week throws up some good trades and some reversion in the ones I have open I may have my first down month in quite a while.
Bugger. That reversion just got better all day...sucks missing out by one session.Was having a reasonable month run until I stuffed up two trades. Had WOW/MTS and closed it yesterday basically at the bottom (look where it is a today).
It's times like this when you need someone to join in on theAnd opened a position in CDD/DOW yesterday and bam! Profit warning the next morning. Thankfully the position was very small... but still hurts a lot.
Well it didn't turn on all day so I was left pretty redundant, had a few opportunities that I was manually calculating..but didn't take any..except for a small STO/OSH this morning. The oilers are usually mean to me, hence the small size.
2227 GMT - Santos (STO.AU) holds its eagerly anticipated investor day next Wednesday,
during which analysts will look for signs its company-transforming US$18.5B GLNG venture
in Queensland state with Total (TOT) is on track for completion next year, in line with
its upwardly revised budget. "We expect Santos will refine its GLNG start-up date to
the second-half of calendar 2015 from current guidance of 2015," JPMorgan says.
Bugger. That reversion just got better all day...sucks missing out by one session.
It's times like this when you need someone to join in on the
I saw the drop this morning and was a bit shocked at how far it fell...I mean surely the market didn't expect them to be increasing earnings this year? I guess any excuse to short in this environment will do.
You're spot-onJust out of curiosity, do you know any traders pursuing this path? I mean the ones who even changed their tax residency out of Aus, I would really like to know how they went about this
Personally I do not use it specifically as a trade filter, but I would think that some people on ASF would.
Do you trade pairs? How do you find trades?
Ok time for the weekly update,
I have a regular job so have been doing this in time off etc.. and started with a demo account.
Altogether not a bad week, I also did some really stupid stuff like going long and short on the same stock! Brain dead!!!
still ended up with roughly 1K up for the week.
Ok time for the weekly update,
Challenger CGF $6.43 $9,031.00 $7.10 $909.00 10.1%
Henderson HGG $4.12 9,888.00 $4.06 -144.00 -1.5%
IOOF $9.18 5,049.00 9.14 5,027.00 -22.00 -0.4%
Newcrest mining (short) $10.37 5,703.50 10.60 5,830.00 126.50 2.2%
Oil search (short) $8.56 1.2%
Santos $11.94 -2.4%
Altogether not a bad week, I also did some really stupid stuff like going long and short on the same stock! Brain dead!!!
still ended up with roughly 1K up for the week.
I've had a decent week with lots of opportunities starting to appear, the profits have yet to flow for me though.
Had the busiest day ever today in terms of volume... but made no money! Let's see if there is mean reversion next week. The oil stocks are getting like gold and iron ore at these levels... i.e. margins and balance sheet start to matter a lot. See how STO performed differently to OSH. I hope oil price would rebound soon so the once good oil sector doesn't become too hard to trade.
The oil stocks are getting like gold and iron ore at these levels... i.e. margins and balance sheet start to matter a lot. See how STO performed differently to OSH. I hope oil price would rebound soon so the once good oil sector doesn't become too hard to trade.
Looks like Credit Suisse is thinking your fears will be confirmed
From SMH: Credit Suisse analysts believe the current oil price environment will “truly distinguish the haves and the have nots (in the Australian oil & gas/exploration & production sector) on strong balance sheets, margins and growth projects.”
Not sure if this has been the result of the TOL asset sale announcement or perhaps that TOL is favoured more than AIO from a lower oil price.
Nonetheless, the divergence is the biggest I've seen for this pair for a while. I have a small position on but am a bit cautious about scaling in further as I think I may have underestimated the impact of the TOL announcement.
Just closed this trade yesterday as my largest loss ever!!!
I felt bad the moment I put it on. It was one of those "macro is against you" trade, and I should have trusted my gut and close it out way earlier.
As you said, the low oil benefits TOL more (at least on perception) than AIO, the asset sale is leading to talks of capital return (although not announced) which the market loves without question (if you want your capital back that badly, why invest in that company!), and AIO has large exposure to coal... the use or pay contracts can really bike if it forces all coal miners into bankruptcy.
Having said that... TOL looks like it was going to roll from the high as of today.
Anyhow, I am always happy to close a large losing trade... it really helps to build risk tolerance
P.S. I am more annoyed that I didn't open a trade long BKN short DOW yesterday... it was going to be the trade to open today. Why can't they wait another day to announce the deal?!
I assume largest loss is due to scaling up rather than biggest % loss?
Its not looking great for me either - not in largest loss range..but not expecting it to get back to profit.
Ahh bummer missing the BKN/DOW trade!!! Funny watching the BKN intraday chart...it was like: woohooooo takevoer...oh noooo they mentioned capital raising....but who cares they are using it for growth
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