- Joined
- 11 August 2007
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Pt:
How do you decide when to average down, like the TOL & JHX pair, if you do want to? Is it based on days like the cut loss? Or based on % movement? or the running ratio that you have?
WDC & JBH pairs seem ok at the moment.
so,.. if you have a $20,000 account
does that mean that you can only commit $5,000 per pair trade (or to be exact, $2,500 on each of the stock)?
Furthermore, is that $5,000 of stock value or $5,000 of margin? ie... say if margin was 10% (on both pairs)... then your market value is really $50,000??
I'm not averaging down in this journal, im keeping it simple for all to see, if I do average down its when the pair has moved another 0.50+/- from my entry point on no news, nothing complicated.
do you mean reducing the size of your positions if it does not initially move in your favour?
do you mean reducing the size of your positions if it does not initially move in your favour?
Hi PT
Just so that I understand what you wrote above correctly...
See attached image.
1) Comparing XJO against ASX100 stocks
2) Filtered the result for values >2 OR <-2
3) Select two stocks in the same sector that are on the opposite ends... ie in the example attached I'd be pairing the financials; AMP(-2.04) with QBE(+2.40) ??
4) backtest that pair to see if they correlate well then...
5) if all good, then I guess you would go Long and AMP and Short on QBE?
Hi pair traders,
about 8 to 9 out of 10 trades I take are winners. At the first glance thats pretty good. But the bad thing is, that the losing trades reduce my profits by 50%, or sometimes even more. Do you have any advice to get around of that?
Much thanks in advance!
Saico
I was thinking about this today, and if I remember correctly wasn't your first ever trade on here Pairs BHP/RIO after BHP announced that it was dropping its takeover bid? Surely that trade was based on news? Have you changed your method since then?
pairs trader
.. your advice has been to pair trade large caps but I've noticed you've also been trading some smaller caps.
For instance ..
SSM, GCL, MLB, SMX
What made you choose the above stocks - and when is it appropriate to trade the smaller stocks ? ..
would you trade these smaller caps vs other small caps or against the large caps ?
PT could you confirm I see in your screen shot of your pair trade finder that you have version 2.3c, is this available yet.
Also the data in your view of PTF seems different to mine. I see a std dev for this pair of 0.74 for 24/07 and 2.0 for today with not enter trade signal. Is yours set up differently.
Yes that is a type of trade I don't do in this journal, im keeping it very simple for everyone to see. I do take trades outside this journal in other markets too.
That trade was news biased, RIO got smashed down what I thought was too much for the known information at the time, and I bet against the market, I did make a small profit and got out too early, but it didn't turn out well as I thought it would. I don't recommend these type of trades for inexperienced trader, when you have been watching the market day in day out for years you develop a ''feel'' for it and if you pay particular attention to a handful of stocks you know when they are out of whack even when there has been news released, this is where trading becomes very similar to playing poker, Greg Coffey in London is the king of this game, its the old ''buy on rumor, sell on the news'' except Greg buys before rumor and sells on the rumor, front running everyone because he is intimately in touch with the market, also he is very very intelligent which helps.
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=trader+paul+tudor+jones&search_type=&aq=f
The above link is the movie ''trader'' made in 1987, its a documentary on the legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones, one of the best traders in the world with the most respectable long term records, the movie is in 7 parts and is a great insight into a real hedge fund manager daily life, he is managing 100m at that time, he gamed the '87 crash and made bucket loads in a time everyone else was staring into the abyss. Be sure to watch the movie soon as it was only uploaded 24 hours ago and may not remain there long as its rumored Paul brought all remaining copies of this doc because he thought it discloses too much. Great watch.
just about all of your significant losses come from news being released that affects the stock after you have placed your trade, to mitigate this risk make sure the stock doesn't have upcoming earnings annoucements, stock sensitive pending announcements or any clouding market rumours, sometimes the reason is unknown, you do have to do some homework, it takes me no longer than 5mins to search for stock news for multiple sources, this is where a full service stockbroker can help, he is your man on the street and can let you know what the market talk is on any given stock.
To reduce your losses try employing a 15 day time stop and close your position within this timeframe regardless of PnL, also you can try sticking to stocks that have a history of very few stock price sensitive news items, BHP would be the opposite of this example and I don't trade it, too many variables at play, ADRs, governments, contracts, etc.....very hard stock to trade. If you position size correctly you can takes losses no problem, you have it to be able stomach the losses and not take it personally or give reason to change your method, this is why succesfull trading flies in the face of how we are brought up to function, if we do something and its wrong that we need to change how we did it, whereas in trading this doesn't apply, you make more money from sitting on your hands than ''doing something''.
Its a numbers game, treat it just like that, numbers, don't measure your losses in the material equivalent like I just lost $500, that a nice weekend holiday gone, try and trade with the attitude, ''right im going to make 100 trades over the next 3months and I don't care if I breakeven, it will be a good experience and I will learn alot'' going in with this attitude is good because your not expecting fireworks and any profit is going to please you.
Remember this is speculating, making an educated bet, not science. Trading is not placing a trade then thinking there might be a chance of a loss but it always turns into a winner for some sort of cheap thrill, you have to take losses, learn to love them, and treat like one step closer to another winning trade.
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