ASX shockers

[skc]

I am just starting a thread as a rolling record of some of the recent ASX shockers in terms of market expectation vs reality. I am talking about 15-25% moves here - most of these names relates to downgrades. I am predominately focused on larger stocks (few hundred $m) here. There are also the more drawn-out de-rating but I probably won't list all of them.

I am just doing this to remind myself some of these moves and whether these are becoming more frequent. Feel free to add to the list - I am sure I have missed plenty of obvious names.

BAL 2/12/2016
VOC 28/11/2016
KAR 21/11/2016
CSV 17/11/2016
ISD 17/11/2016
SCO 14/11/2016
FLT 4/11/2016
ADH 3/11/2016
VTG 31/10/2016
BGA 25/10/2016
HSO 21/10/2016
KCN 17/10/2016
OGC 27/9/2016
TPM 20/9/2016
SRF 30/8/2016
EHE 29/8/2016
BKL 24/8/2016
SMX 22/8/2016
APO 22/8/2016
GEM 16/8/2016
SWM 2/8/2016
AHY 22/7/2016
ASB 4/7/2016
FLT 24/5/2016
RMD 14/5/2016
MGC 27/4/2016
MEA 18/4/2016
NEC 4/5/2016
TPW 25/2/2016
FXL 17/2/2016
CVO 16/2/2016
OFX 8/2/2016
PRG 4/2/2016
KMD 2/2/2016
EPD 22/1/2016

ASB 10/12/2015
MRM 10/11/2015
SPO 2/12/2016
DSH 28/10/2015

MTS 5/12/2014
SRX 17/3/2014

 

[Klogg]

Hah, great idea.

Another to add:
SDI 23/11/16

 

[skc]

I am just starting a thread as a rolling record of some of the recent ASX shockers in terms of market expectation vs reality. I am talking about 15-25% moves here - most of these names relates to downgrades. I am predominately focused on larger stocks (few hundred $m) here. There are also the more drawn-out de-rating but I probably won't list all of them.

I am just doing this to remind myself some of these moves and whether these are becoming more frequent. Feel free to add to the list - I am sure I have missed plenty of obvious names.

BAL 2/12/2016
VOC 28/11/2016
KAR 21/11/2016
CSV 17/11/2016
ISD 17/11/2016
SCO 14/11/2016
FLT 4/11/2016
ADH 3/11/2016
VTG 31/10/2016
BGA 25/10/2016
HSO 21/10/2016
KCN 17/10/2016
OGC 27/9/2016
TPM 20/9/2016
SRF 30/8/2016
EHE 29/8/2016
BKL 24/8/2016
SMX 22/8/2016
APO 22/8/2016
GEM 16/8/2016
SWM 2/8/2016
AHY 22/7/2016
ASB 4/7/2016
FLT 24/5/2016
RMD 14/5/2016
MGC 27/4/2016
MEA 18/4/2016
NEC 4/5/2016
TPW 25/2/2016
FXL 17/2/2016
CVO 16/2/2016
OFX 8/2/2016
PRG 4/2/2016
KMD 2/2/2016
EPD 22/1/2016

ASB 10/12/2015
MRM 10/11/2015
SPO 2/12/2016
DSH 28/10/2015

MTS 5/12/2014
SRX 17/3/2014

TRS 24/8/2016
TRS 19/10/2016

 

[Klogg]

IQE 29/01/16
IQE 27/09/16
NVT 11/07/14

Wow, these are far more common that I thought...

 

[skc]

ANN 4/2/2016
CIM 7/7/2016
CIM 20/7/2016
SGH Whole of 2015

I am going through my notes but surely there's an easier way to scan for these. Anyone know of a suitable tool?

 

[macca]

I feel it would make the thread more interesting if the pre announcement close and the post announcement close were included.

It would be quite simple to do when posting and would be great to look back on 6 and 12 months down the track.

Just a thought

 

[skc]

UGL 6/6/2016
CDD 2/12/2015
BKN 11/11/2015
BKN 28/1/2015

AYS 19/2/2016
LOV 28/1/2016

 

[skc]

I feel it would make the thread more interesting if the pre announcement close and the post announcement close were included.

It would be quite simple to do when posting and would be great to look back on 6 and 12 months down the track.

Just a thought

Yeah there's a lot more I plan to do with these... just listing the most basic of information down first.

- You can look at price action before the news.
- Whether the news was scheduled or not.
- Any dead cat bounce and what magnitude.
- If the close predict trading in the ensuing days.
- How much volume traded (vs shares on issue) whether that's a factor.
- Any particular analyst able to foresee the issue.
- Was the news internal or external to the company.

To post the pre/post announcement price you'd have to make sure you know the time of announcement as well...

 

[Roller_1]

I am going through my notes but surely there's an easier way to scan for these. Anyone know of a suitable tool?

cond1 = ROC(C,1) < Param("% drop",-15,-100,100);

Filter = cond1;

Simple Amibroker exploration that should work.

252 stocks have fallen more than 20% since 1st jan 2013. In the all ords that is

 

[skc]

cond1 = ROC(C,1) < Param("% drop",-15,-100,100);

Filter = cond1;

Simple Amibroker exploration that should work.

252 stocks have fallen more than 20% since 1st jan 2013. In the all ords that is

Thanks. Unfortunately I don't have Amibroker!

I would be grateful if you can copy and paste the output or post a spreadsheet here.

 

[Roller_1]

Thanks. Unfortunately I don't have Amibroker!

I would be grateful if you can copy and paste the output or post a spreadsheet here.

View attachment plummeting stocks.xlsx

 

[Roller_1]

Keep in mind these are stocks currently in the All ords, no volume restrictions are in place. Can incorporate something if you like?

 

[Newt]

Dammit skc. Why couldn't you have listed these 12 months ago

 

[Miner]

On a different note on the same subject - just visit the recommendations on Motley Group's dividend investor recommendation to find many shockers
LOL

 

[Boggo]

On a different note on the same subject - just visit the recommendations on Motley Group's dividend investor recommendation to find many shockers
LOL

Haha, and they probably talk about the increasing dividend yield

 

[Wysiwyg]

Couple of things.
Do stocks in Sectors move generally in the same direction? Resource sector as most recent example.
Does pessimistic market sentiment kill share prices of good businesses? There are periods when companies continue profiting yet the share price remains flat or receding. These periods can last a frustratingly long time.

 

[skc]

View attachment 68999

Thanks!

Keep in mind these are stocks currently in the All ords, no volume restrictions are in place. Can incorporate something if you like?

What you've sent is good enough. Thanks. The research is just a probe on some of my thoughts and it doesn't need to be totally comprehensive. Although the list is missing DSH.

Do stocks in Sectors move generally in the same direction? Resource sector as most recent example.

Of course they do. Just look at A2M down 10% today from BAL's news. Resource sector is correlated because they are all moved by the price of the underlying commodity.

Does pessimistic market sentiment kill share prices of good businesses?

I think there are 3 types of shockers.
1. External shocks - like Rudd suddenly decided to kill the novated leasing perk in 2013 halving MMS.
2. Bad businesses that didn't get priced in bad enough - like SGH.
3. Good businesses that disappoints relative to sky high expectations.

Dammit skc. Why couldn't you have listed these 12 months ago

My list for 2017 will be available for purchase soon!

Using Roller_1's list and with my own 2 min cleaning, here's the count of shockers per year.

2013 - 8
2014 - 18
2015 - 29
2016 - 47

So perhaps it is happening more often.

 

[odds-on]

Brilliant thread.

You mention bad businesses being a type of shocker. It made me think of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_law - "90% of everything is cr@p". These shockers are inevitable as most of the underlying businesses are cr@p. It is just a matter of time.

 

[So_Cynical]

Brilliant thread.

You mention bad businesses being a type of shocker. It made me think of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_law - "90% of everything is cr@p". These shockers are inevitable as most of the underlying businesses are cr@p. It is just a matter of time.

Of these shockers i would say more like 10% crap, 90% take your pick, 1 bad decision, multiple bad decisions, over reaching, failure to mitigate risk, disruption, collapsing commodity price etc etc.

 

[Wysiwyg]

I think there are 3 types of shockers.
1. External shocks - like Rudd suddenly decided to kill the novated leasing perk in 2013 halving MMS.
2. Bad businesses that didn't get priced in bad enough - like SGH.
3. Good businesses that disappoints relative to sky high expectations.

Another reason is negative broker rating and especially if it is via a news article which catches many off guard.


Stefan stock investor = why is BCA tanking?
Erney ear to the wall = AFR story.