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ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2

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Trading update:

RSG: (1.995) Insto only cap raising causes the price to fall (along with the falling POG). The SPP was at 1.96 and might provide some support, although that depends on the POG not falling further. We'll leave our exit trigger at 1.90, but we may sell soon regardless. We want to see immediate demand.

IMF: Good demand today to immediately recover from XD. TS raised to 1.75. We are allowing the price to continue higher rather than taking an acceptable +2R profit.
EMC: Raising our TS up to 0.79. This will allow price to test the BO level at 0.85.
MYX: Still looks like accumulation and I'm happy to hold.
RAP: Not enough traded at our +2R price to exit. Waiting to see if the 0.50 level provides support.
BOL: Exasperatingly low volume being traded, but the price stays at the recent high. Looks like the market needs some new info to move the price.
AMA: Letting price consolidate at all time highs here. Our TS is now at BE.

Considered WTC, but it was too high priced for our remaining cash supply.

Our capital risk is only 2.1%, so we can start another 1 or 2 trades with our remaining cash (~7.7K).
CLQ, FCT, SSM are interesting candidates.
 
Trading update: New trades. Bought with limit orders placed overnight.

CLQ: Bought BO of recent level at 0.62, iSL 0.53.
This entry is not as good as the BO-HR at 0.50 earlier.

SSM: Bought BO-NH at 1.10, iSL 1.00.
Bought on the back of the HL.

I've bought both of these myself, but this portfolio didn't have enough cash for both unless I converted one of them to a cfd. As SSM has the highest daily volume I've made it the cfd with 25% margin. I prefer to include both rather than select one. I'm a lousy stock picker.

This makes our portfolio fully invested and we'll have to be patient and see what happens next.

ps: Didn't try to buy the third candidate (FCT) as I don't understand what they do. The chart looks great though.

 
EOW 83 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +41.9% ( 123% invested in 9 trades )
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (incl. divs and franking credits) 0.0% (past 83wk)

Our portfolio drifts sideways with the market. We're almost fully invested (1.7K left). Probably enough for another cfd trade if one leaps out at us next week. When the portfolio is fully invested it's easy to let it drift and wait for price to trigger a sell. I find it important to continue the daily and week-end processes (scans) to stay in touch with what's happening in the market. There may be a better looking opportunity that we could switch to instead of being stuck in a trade going nowhere.

This weeks sells: nil
This weeks buys: CLQ, SSM

RAP: In a trading halt that we can't do anything about until trading resumes. We can only hope the news is good.

Outlook: Bullish, if that was the Sept dip.

 
Trading update: RAP, RSG, EMC

RAP: After touching our +2R target (0.55) price has fallen a little on low volume. A trading halt is always a concern but there is nothing we can do other than be prepared for the halt to be lifted. RAP released some news that seemed like good news to me but the market had other ideas and sold off throughout the day. We've now lost most of our profit in this trade and the upward price momentum is surely gone after today's sell-off.

Time for us to close this trade. Sell next open.

We'll be keeping an eye on this chart for a possible re-entry if price trades > 0.50 in the next week or two.

RSG: (1.92) Price is very close to our exit trigger (1.90).
We're going to sell this next open unless the price of gold goes up overnight. If the POG goes up overnight I'll let RSG have another day.

EMC: After today's strong up day we'll raise our exit stop to BE (0.85).
 
Some great trades lately Peter; EMC very nice!

One that looks decent and on its way through today is TGA
 
Trading update: AMA trade.

Our entry is shown by the blue ellipse. It was a BO-NH setup following the BO-HR. We've raised our exit trigger as price went higher immediately. Price has pulled back to near our trigger forcing us to think about selling at BE to protect our portfolio or letting it ride.

We will sell this if it trades back at our exit trigger (1.05). Sell order is in the market. This disciplined action is a huge part of our edge.



Observation: This chart is a good example of what happens to us repeatedly. We get a little profit immediately and then the market turns down and we're back to where we entered. Losing traders will hang on, hoping that price will miraculously reverse and go up. We gave price plenty of time to go higher and remain higher, it hasn't. It's time for us to sell.

In the context of the whole prior swing up from 0.90 to 1.15 this pullback is small (< 38% so far). We know pullbacks often test the prior BO or 50-62% levels so we can expect price to fall even further and still remain in an up trend.

Our trade is now in difficulty (no profit) from this small pullback due to our late entry. Had we bought the BO-HR earlier we would have been able to consider taking a +2R profit or tolerate this pullback comfortably. Even though the setup and entry was according to our TP, it's important to realise that it's late relative to our preferred BO-HR setup. Late entries don't have the same reward potential as our preferred setups and it's acceptable to consider taking smaller +1R profits. Late entries will create more BE results also. If we don't accept these frequent BE results, we'll turn a profitable TP into a losing plan.

If you realise that your entry is late, be prepared to accept a smaller profit and raise your exit stop to BE asap.

Take your best setups every time you see them.
 
peter2 said:
If you realise that your entry is late, be prepared to accept a smaller profit and raise your exit stop to BE asap.

Take your best setups every time you see them.
Click to expand...
Great points. The late entries require more attention and may require a few more transactions due to scaling at lower R values (at least they do for me). The A+ setups are not only the most profitable, but also the most rare. The late entries (along with other strategies) can still be part of a solid plan as they allow the trader to hit a few singles while waiting for the home runs.
 
Yes, I wrote that post for both educational reasons and as a reminder to myself that the AMA trade should have been a nice single rather than hoping for a triple base hit. A couple of singles (+1R) plus a multiple base hit each month adds up to a nice return.
 

Thanks Peter, the value and importance of this continued thread is once again displayed above ... as you've told me before it's a business (yours) and you need a detailed plan to direct your employee (you) on how to run this business and what to be aware of when it happens and if you come across a problem and it's not in the plan or spreadsheet or even your blog/diary put it in for the next time. So the "reminder to myself" above did not surprise me at all and just shows the commitment that we all should have to our trading plan.

Once again Peter thanks for the continued education and tips and also to VSntchr, I always appreciate your your thoughts and input very much as well.
 
While gold stocks don't like rising US rates...some other stocks do.
CPU has just made it's second BO:


QBE is another on the interest rate theme, although doesn't have a BO setup.
 
EOW 84 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +39.8% (100% invested in 6 trades )
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl divs and F Credits) +0.6% (past 84wk)

Our portfolio dropped a little as a few of our trades were sold off.

This weeks sells: RAP (+0.4R), RSG (-0.4R), CLQ (-0.9R)
This weeks buys: nil

Outlook: Market filter has turned up to (WU DU) and we can start a few more trades since our cap risk is only 1.5%.

 
Trading update:

EMC: We had a sell order in the market (placed days ago) at T2 (1.12) and this was actioned this morning on the open (1.14) after some news. An above average result of $1436 (+2.2R) is realised.

SSM: This trade is another example of a "late" entry as we bought after the earlier BO-HR (at 0.86). We'll manage this one with a tight exit stop since it's now >+1R. We'll place a sell order at T2 (1.31) in case of spike up.

We have abundant cash after closing so many trades and we'll be looking to start more immediately.

@Vsntchr: TGA nice one and I liked CPU as well.
 
Trading update: New trades

RXP: Bought new high at 0.85, iSL at 0.78.
Looks like a strong move up after consolidation.

TSN: Bought at 0.026, iSL 0.023.
Pre-empting the BO here, but I like the symmetry of the corrective move compared to the prior impulse move.


 
Hey Peter2,

What are your thoughts on SRG?

BTW Great thread, I am learning and benefiting a lot from this. Started investing/trading earlier this year and trend/BO trading has been my two strategies since starting.

Cheers,
Rypieee
 
Trading update: Another new trade.

RAP: Bought after the BO of the 0.50 level (bought 0.505, iSL is 0.44 ).
We were ready for this after our recent exit.

Did we exit our recent RAP trade too early? Maybe, maybe not. We'll know in a few weeks.
We closed our trade in CLQ for the same reason (huge down bar) and it saved us money. The exit strategy saves us money and allows us to profit from the trades that don't pullback.

 
Thanks for the compliments Rypieee. Glad you've found some useful info here.

If you've read both threads then you'll know that I'm a big fan of a written TP. When we write stuff we realise if we know what we're supposed to be writing about. If an idea is not clear in our heads then we will have difficulty writing about it.

The TP for this thread describes all our setups and states our preferred setup (BO-HR) that gets us in at the start of a trend. Have a look at your TP. Does it describe your setups and do you have a favourite?

Now, look at the chart of SRG. Has the price movement formed one of your setups? If so then you know what you should do. If not then you discard the chart or place it in a watch-list to keep an eye on it.

Are you with me? If you've got your own TP, then what anyone else thinks doesn't matter.

Thanks for your post and if you have any other Q's. Ask.
 
Trading update: New trade

NSL: Bought BO-NH at 0.039, iSL 0.032.
Textbook small consolidation on low volume after impulse move up.

 
Trading update: New trade.

CWY: Bought BO-HR at 1.155, iSL is 1.07.

Text book consolidation after impulsive move up. Higher lows in consolidation make it more tempting.

 
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