ASX 200

[finicky]

Red week but cons staples eked out a small gain and topped the sub index list.

Insignia Financial (IFL) top ASX 200 Stock of this week.

 

[finicky]

Punters all in while hotshots, insiders, are selling. However energy is a sector of interest for the pros with Buffet heavily invested there and others also laying bets. I'm getting thoughts again about Woodside in this regard as they've invested in the U.S.

 

[finicky]

Megaport topping the advancers list today. Some quality names in the loser list.

Via Market Matters

 

[finicky]

A Tactic I might be using as a buy signal in the next crash. Will be scoping out the volume bars in the STW etf WEEKLY chart. In the 2020 crash there was the massive capitulatory volume (red bar) followed by high volume accumulation bars (black). They marked the LOW in March 2020. Should that occurrence repeat I'll be looking at charts of individual stocks of interest for buys.



WEEKLY

 

[finicky]

Yikes, I'm almost down a new Mazda 2 + onroad costs before luncheon today. Smashed in the USA overnight plus our Labor govt updates on its fiscal management.

Excerpts of parts of Market Matters this morning before market open. Bold emphases mine:

The ASX200 ended down -0.1 % on Wednesday; the market looked excellent around midday, but the bears took over in the afternoon, with the Treasurer’s mid-year economic update potentially weighing on the confidence of the local market.

• The Federal Budget isn’t estimated to return to surplus for at least a decade, with spending around record levels and debt about to break above $1 trillion.
• The cumulative deficits over the next four years are already almost $22 billion larger than forecast in May, and more giveaways are likely before the looming Federal election.
• After the government miscalculates $22bn in just seven months, what credibility can be put on 10-year projections? Without another mining boom, our debt could become more scary sooner rather than later.

Overnight, the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, as expected, but now only see two further cuts in 2025, setting up a likely pause to rate cuts beginning at the January 28-29 meeting. Significantly, this is 0.5% less in policy easing next year than officials anticipated three months ago, with Fed projections of inflation for the first year of the new Trump administration jumping from 2.1% in their prior forecasts to 2.5% in the current ones—well above the central bank’s 2% target. The goalposts were moved, and markets adjusted with a bang on low Christmas holiday volumes.

• The Fed has turned less dovish, which is bad news for rate-sensitive stocks and the market; following the news, gold fell by over $US50/oz, and the $A plunged to 62.2c against the $US as the Greenback advanced across the board – the market wasn’t ready for the rhetoric from Jerome Powell though clearly, this met a market with lower participation ahead of Christmas, which tends to have an exaggerating impact on market moves.

Overseas indices were mixed. Europe closed firmer before the Fed announcement, the EURO STOXX 50 gained +0.3%, and the UK FTSE gained +0.05%. However, it was a very different story in the US, with the S&P falling almost 3% and all 11 sectors were down, led by the rate-sensitive consumer discretionary, utilities, and real estate names.

• The SPI Futures are calling the ASX200 to open down 123 points/1.5% following overseas moves, with a Christmas rally now feeling off the table.

 

[finicky]

Credit Corp top of the pops today and more strength from IFL. Megaport the worst after being the best yesterday.

Via Market Matters

 

[finicky]

Excerpt from a Promo email by Michael Gable today. Self explanatory, regarding high cash levels for his high value managed clients due to hit trailing stop losses.

"I was on Ausbiz TV on Tuesday with David Koch and Ben Clark and I was asked about whether we were raising our cash levels for our Portfolio Management clients.

My response was that a number of our trailing stop losses had been triggered recently. This naturally raised our cash levels to 30% - 50% for our average client.

When you think about it, a number of stocks having their trailing stops get triggered was giving us a bit of a warning about what might lie ahead for the overall market...

Stocks that we stopped out of just last week between 9 - 11 December included the following:

PME for a 154.6% gain
360 for a 29.8% gain
XRO for a 14.9% gain
PNI for a 30.6% gain ..."

 

[divs4ever]

touched 8,057.500 so far today ...
will 8000 be an effective support level ??

 

[finicky]

Via Market Matters:

Transurban the winner over a lacklustre week
Worst for the week was Coronado Resources and Deep Yellow
Industrial and Utilities the only sectors to hold their ground. Materials sector smashed.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Excerpt from a Promo email by Michael Gable today. Self explanatory, regarding high cash levels for his high value managed clients due to hit trailing stop losses.

"I was on Ausbiz TV on Tuesday with David Koch and Ben Clark and I was asked about whether we were raising our cash levels for our Portfolio Management clients.

My response was that a number of our trailing stop losses had been triggered recently. This naturally raised our cash levels to 30% - 50% for our average client.

When you think about it, a number of stocks having their trailing stops get triggered was giving us a bit of a warning about what might lie ahead for the overall market...

Stocks that we stopped out of just last week between 9 - 11 December included the following:

PME for a 154.6% gain
360 for a 29.8% gain
XRO for a 14.9% gain
PNI for a 30.6% gain ..."

.
I love it when these shops talk their book and only mention the successes

 

[finicky]

Market Matters w/e report:

Excerpt, my bold:

• After closing below the psychological 8300 area, MM adopted a neutral stance towards the ASX200. As we said at the time, “If it weren’t for the seasonal cheer that December usually brings equities, we would be more inclined to adopt a defensive view/stance over the coming months” – in hindsight, we should have ignored the seasonality factor this time around.
• The ASX200 is down 4.38% month-to-date, putting it on target to deliver a rare negative performance into Christmas.

Last week was all about the Fed on Wednesday; other news faded into the background as selling fed on itself over the ensuing 72-hours leading to deep corrections that may flow into 2025"

 

[divs4ever]

Market Matters w/e report:

Excerpt, my bold:

• After closing below the psychological 8300 area, MM adopted a neutral stance towards the ASX200. As we said at the time, “If it weren’t for the seasonal cheer that December usually brings equities, we would be more inclined to adopt a defensive view/stance over the coming months” – in hindsight, we should have ignored the seasonality factor this time around.
• The ASX200 is down 4.38% month-to-date, putting it on target to deliver a rare negative performance into Christmas.

Last week was all about the Fed on Wednesday; other news faded into the background as selling fed on itself over the ensuing 72-hours leading to deep corrections that may flow into 2025"

this might test the retail folks willingness to invest in the ASX during the next two weeks

expect unevenness in the buying/selling

currently none of my targets are particularly close to my buying( top-up ) price , but BEAR is close to my reduce price