ASX 200 stocks to short

[blablabla]

The "ASX200 stocks to short" thread is for identifying stocks that are about to fall or that are already in a downward spiral.

Posters, the rules are simple:-
1. The stock must be in the ASX200. Got to be able to short it without first owning it.
2. You must state a reason for your shorting opinion. e.g. T/A, F/A, economic news, unfavourable announcement.


To kick off, I nominate STW (StreetTracks ASX200 index tracking fund).
Reason: the market is experiencing a correction which in my opinion may have some way to run yet. STW reflects the whole ASX200 which makes it a good broad brush for sustained trends.

 

[Timmy]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

3bla - dont forget you can short many more stocks outside of the ASX200 by using CFDs (DMA of course...)

 

[kingie_d]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

blablabla,
currently short in the following:
AIO - smooth downtrend
ALS - major breakdown since Nov
API - broke the rally in Nov and continued downtrend
ARQ - same as API
AWC - downtrending band since Oct
JST - Head & shoulders (?) pattern then rally met resistance at the neck line
OST - same as AWC

They are all in either a sustained downtrend or have turned since the Nov high and been going south since. Shorted each just after failed rallies and keeping fairly tight stops.

 

[treefrog]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

The "ASX200 stocks to short" thread is for identifying stocks that are about to fall or that are already in a downward spiral.

Posters, the rules are simple:-
1. The stock must be in the ASX200. Got to be able to short it without first owning it.
2. You must state a reason for your shorting opinion. e.g. T/A, F/A, economic news, unfavourable announcement.


To kick off, I nominate STW (StreetTracks ASX200 index tracking fund).
Reason: the market is experiencing a correction which in my opinion may have some way to run yet. STW reflects the whole ASX200 which makes it a good broad brush for sustained trends.

baba

er, what language (timeframe) are we speaking here - presume day charts rather than intraday so that we all get time to review the situation

 

[treefrog]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

I know its not in the ASX200 (too big) but can I have NWS?...can I, can I, huh?

has been in a reliable downchannel since it broke the supporting UTL late april

I am MT short looking for 2yr support at 19.60

and also trade within the channels ST both long and short

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Is this like the opposite of a ramp?hehe....anything with Macquarie in it deserves a short

 

[Buffettology]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Is this like the opposite of a ramp?hehe....anything with Macquarie in it deserves a short

ha ha, I concur!

 

[blablabla]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Thanks Kingie for your interesting list.

Treefrog, yes the timeframe would be daily, not intraday.

Yes Rainmaker, this thread is downramper city.

To clarify which stocks can be included in this thread, they should be ones that most CFD providers allow their clients to short because CFDs are probably the easiest and cheapest ways to short sell. In general this means sticking to the ASX200 but there may be some exceptions. Some CFD providers do allow shorting on many stocks outside the ASX200 but most are likely to be in the ASX300.

By the way, a few days ago on another thread I recommended PEM as a good stock to short, and it certainly continued to be so for the next few days. Well, PEM seems to have finally hit bedrock and has risen significantly today. PEM may have gotten very oversold recently and its fundamental value may now cause it to rebound strongly. Could be a good time to close out any open PEM shorts.

Yes, you can use this thread to recommend when to close out shorts as well as when to open them!

 

[prawn_86]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Just remember to include a bit of analysis for each stock guys.

Downramping will be moderated in the same way as ramping

enjoy

Prawn

 

[treefrog]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Thanks Kingie for your interesting list.

Treefrog, yes the timeframe would be daily, not intraday.

Yes Rainmaker, this thread is downramper city.

To clarify which stocks can be included in this thread, they should be ones that most CFD providers allow their clients to short because CFDs are probably the easiest and cheapest ways to short sell. In general this means sticking to the ASX200 but there may be some exceptions. Some CFD providers do allow shorting on many stocks outside the ASX200 but most are likely to be in the ASX300.

By the way, a few days ago on another thread I recommended PEM as a good stock to short, and it certainly continued to be so for the next few days. Well, PEM seems to have finally hit bedrock and has risen significantly today. PEM may have gotten very oversold recently and its fundamental value may now cause it to rebound strongly. Could be a good time to close out any open PEM shorts.

Yes, you can use this thread to recommend when to close out shorts as well as when to open them!

yes PEM close to bottom of downtrend channel support and also bounced off 2.12 S/R line
of course the fundamentalists will tell us that a couple of insto's have stopped bailing out (temp at least) now they are no longer substantial holders (AMP and HER from memory) - they can sell without having to notify
PEM vol not high though today so maybe some sideways - anyway agree - u talked me into exiting the short for now

 

[blablabla]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

DJI was down nearly 2% on Friday, despite promises of substantial rate reductions in the offing. Today the XJO opened very weak and early sellers pushed it below its 3-year support line, which should normally indicate that the current correction is now over. True to form, the XJO has rebounded and at the time of writing is actually above Friday's close.

This is a strong signal to close out most shorts in ASX200 stocks, even in weak stocks, at least until a clearer picture emerges from Wall St tonight.

 

[wildmanchris]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

I notice AIO was mentioned in this thread. A guy that works for me (dont ask me why he did this) bought $29,000 in AIO at $9.00, and on retracements put another $10,000 into it progressively. It has made a bit of a rally friday and today.

Is it the start of a new wave, or a run before another chance to short?

Any thoughts?

 

[kingie_d]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Wildmanchris,

Regarding AIO, after it closed way below the lower bolinger band on wed and thurs I tightened my stop loss to 1 x ATR and got stopped out yesterday (Mon) at $6.50 for a quick 4R profit. It looks like today it is forming a doji which might mean it is the end of its rally. If it starts going south again tommorrow I will probably jump back on the shortselling train.
I tightened stops on a few of those shares mentioned earlier and came out with small profits (eg. JST & AWC). OST popped up and stopped me out then went back down. It was forming an ascending triangle and I was intending to be on the right side of the breakout. Still unsure whether to try again.
From the looks of the XAO and XJO charts I might hold off entering shorts until after its rebound. I think I have turned into a bear...

 

[blablabla]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

From a T/A perspective the bull market that has been in operation for years may now be officially over. The 3-year support line failed to prop up the XJO and todays market action shows that the 3-year support line is well and truly broken. T/A is now in line with F/A. It looks like a bear market.

While it might appear that it is now open slather for shorting ASX200 stocks, great care is required with stock selection and with the timing of trades. For example, many stocks gapped very low today at the open but quickly began to rise as bargain hunters pounced.

There are wide-ranging predictions as to the where this market will bottom and how long the bear will last. Some are even saying that it's a long and deep correction, not really a bear. There is even a possibility of a quick rally if Bernanke makes a surprise large interest rate cut before the cut which most expect at the end of January. For ASX200 stocks, much will depend on the reporting period just commencing.

What are the best stocks to short in this bear market? Resources? Retailers? Banks? Opinions are welcome.

 

[tronic72]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Currently, I'd short any stock that has three letters in it's code. Some examples would be AMP, BHP or RIO.

For those that are more conservative and want to cover their bases. Any stocks that start is the letters A-Z would be a safe bet.

Does anyone know a good ship builder? I need to build an Ark ASAP as the blood in the streets in nearly over my roof.

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Some might suggest the Housing crash is due to spread here, would make Banks tasty targets eh ?

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

While it might appear that it is now open slather for shorting ASX200 stocks, great care is required with stock selection and with the timing of trades. For example, many stocks gapped very low today at the open but quickly began to rise as bargain hunters pounced.

There are wide-ranging predictions as to the where this market will bottom and how long the bear will last. Some are even saying that it's a long and deep correction, not really a bear. There is even a possibility of a quick rally if Bernanke makes a surprise large interest rate cut before the cut which most expect at the end of January. For ASX200 stocks, much will depend on the reporting period just commencing.

What are the best stocks to short in this bear market? Resources? Retailers? Banks? Opinions are welcome.

IMO just from looking at it, it's been nearly impossible trading a lot of stocks intraday, because of the gapping... effectively gambling in my eyes, if you aren't interested in gap trading.

Historically it is transports that do the worst in times like this. However, all but QAN seem to be trying to rally, and all but QAN no longer have price targets left IMO.

I reckon goldies and oilers are the way to go in the very short term, just because they are coming of a very high base. Longer term I am looking at AMP and some retailers...

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

That's easy Chops , we'll grab a carton beer and some darts , darts for selection , beer for courage ............

The S&P is under demolition below 1380 currently 1378 and change only one thing to do with all that red ............

 

[kingie_d]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

Here is another stock that I think is ideal for shorting. BLD has been in a steady downtrend for about half a year. There are plenty of buying opportunities when it rallies above the 10 MA and not too much panic selling (it doesn't dip below the ATR bands too often).

 

[kingie_d]

Re: ASX200 stocks to short

After getting stopped out at the end of the other week (most recent long candle) I jumped back into shorting AIO at a better price after the Doji. Still undecided as to whether I should hold good shorts to avoid transaction fees of getting out then back in or if it is better to lock in profits because the market could make a rebound sometime soon. I want to trade in the direction of the XAO but it looks really oversold (outside the ATR bands) and liable to make a rally sometime soon - even if it is only a small one. If there is a rally then it continues down it should provide lots more entry points into downtrending stocks.