Ascending vs. Descending - In Real Time

[Dutchy3]

Hi Everybody

For those interested in pattern formations here's what I see. Two stocks (AGK, FGL) forming up into Decending Triangles and another two (CBH, NCM) Ascending Triangles, right now ....

I've posted elsewhere regarding the strength, or predictability of the Decending Triangle bullish breakouts that I trade .... lets watch as these four evolve over the next few weeks ....

All offered via CFD too.

 

[CFD]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Looking forward to you following these through Dutchy. You may need to remind us of some finer points as you go.

 

[CanOz]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Thanks heaps for those Dutchy! I love these patterns too!

Cheers,

 

[Gar]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

will be interesting to see how this pans out, cool idea dutchy

 

[Dutchy3]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Time for a zoom in ...

Here we see the first of these four stocks taking a bit of interest ... NCM

The first duty I have as a market participant is to understand what success and failure look like ... in practical terms ... what's a BUY signal and where would the STOP therefore be?

NCM - like ALL the patterns I trade make this task simple. A CLOSE at 24.50 or above will be my entry signal ... STOP at 23.00 ...

Why ... A BIG WHITE that closes at 24.50 or above defeats three attempts at this price over the last three months ... 23.00 is safely below today's BIG WHITE and contained within the confusion since March 2003. An additional comfort factor is the little blue arrows below the three BIG WHITE's contained within the pattern since March 2003. These arrows signify greater than 150% of the 50 period average volume for that period. In other words these days the BUYERS DOMINATED the sellers ... always a happy party when seeking to go long ...

Now this is an ASCENDING TRIANGLE and according to my logic its the BUYERS that have been doing all the work holding this market up for the last three months. The SELLERS have been patient at 24.00 and simply used their combined 'weight' to smack this down for the three months....

So .... Buyers need to have plenty of lead in pencil if they are to breech 24.50 and beyond ... opposite is true for DECSENDING TRIANGLE bullish breakouts.

We should have an answer on this one very soon ....

 

[reece55]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Time for a zoom in ...

Here we see the first of these four stocks taking a bit of interest ... NCM

The first duty I have as a market participant is to understand what success and failure look like ... in practical terms ... what's a BUY signal and where would the STOP therefore be?

NCM - like ALL the patterns I trade make this task simple. A CLOSE at 24.50 or above will be my entry signal ... STOP at 23.00 ...

Why ... A BIG WHITE that closes at 24.50 or above defeats three attempts at this price over the last three months ... 23.00 is safely below today's BIG WHITE and contained within the confusion since March 2003. An additional comfort factor is the little blue arrows below the three BIG WHITE's contained within the pattern since March 2003. These arrows signify greater than 150% of the 50 period average volume for that period. In other words these days the BUYERS DOMINATED the sellers ... always a happy party when seeking to go long ...

Now this is an ASCENDING TRIANGLE and according to my logic its the BUYERS that have been doing all the work holding this market up for the last three months. The SELLERS have been patient at 24.00 and simply used their combined 'weight' to smack this down for the three months....

So .... Buyers need to have plenty of lead in pencil if they are to breech 24.50 and beyond ... opposite is true for DECSENDING TRIANGLE bullish breakouts.

We should have an answer on this one very soon ....

Hey Dutchy
Great minds think alike - I was actually reviewing NCM tonight for a possible position.....

24.50 seems like a logical entry point, provided that we see a nice white candle...

Certainly, with Oil on the rise, the USD on the fall, Gold becomes a possible investment target. So far our hot stocks have been in the materials and oil and gas sectors - perhaps it's time to see NCM move upwards, along with fellow gold stocks.

Out of interest, Citigroup upgrading their price target to 28.00 today, on the potential for NCM's removal of it's hedge book...

Cheers

 

[Sean K]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Dutchy, thanks for this, been following NCM pattern as well, and thought it a potential breakout for some time as seen in that thread. I like your approach here. $24 proving quite a barrier. I notice it has touched it 15 times in the past 5 months and held above once. My bottom support line would be a little steeper than yours. I think your stop at 23 is a little conservative. I think 23 might be some initial support as it coincides with a possible weaker upward trend, so a stop just under that might be better, and I think it could probably get to 22.50 (last lows) and still be ascending. A break below there and it's back to sideways probably.

Having said that, this is a pretty skittish stock. Investors take it to task on any whiff of trouble, so maybe your conservative stop is a better approach. I'd also consider pyramiding up and down in this while it's hovering around $23.50. I'd certainly be adding to a position on a clear break through $24.

Agree with Reece that $US, Oil and geopolitics are pointing to break up.

Great thread, thanks. Hopefully this turns into a good example of a breakout of an ascending triangle.

(holding some already - since 04)

 

[CFD]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Time for a zoom in ...
~~
Now this is an ASCENDING TRIANGLE and according to my logic its the BUYERS that have been doing all the work holding this market up for the last three months.
~~

That I can follow, it looks like whenever there is low volume the price drops.
ie it can't hold itself up, needs buyers just to hold a stead price.
Could this be just as likely to fall as rise?

 

[Sean K]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

I've opened up another long position with this formation potential break, but intraday looks like 24.50 is forming as a strong barrier. Finger on the 'save my @rse' button, as much as I can on the other side of the planet. This aint darts!! Come on ascending triangle, ascend!!!!

 

[Dutchy3]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Not quite there yet ... very tempting I know ... further reinforced the SELLERS at 24.50 ish though ....

A CLOSE below 23.50 will now discount yesterdays BIG WHITE ... as the BUYERS will need to regroup. All the same a CLOSE at 24.50 + tomorrow will see me LONG ... could be in the last few minutes of trading

 

[Sean K]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Not quite there yet ... very tempting I know ... further reinforced the SELLERS at 24.50 ish though ....

A CLOSE below 23.50 will now discount yesterdays BIG WHITE ... as the BUYERS will need to regroup. All the same a CLOSE at 24.50 + tomorrow will see me LONG ... could be in the last few minutes of trading

Close $23.90.

Currently: dollar down, oil up, DJI pumping, geopolitics dodgy, M&A activity high, MACD and Stoch just crossing, all supporting the ascending triangle. All in all, makes a high probability break up IMO.

Therefore, they'll release some bad production numbers tomorrow...

 

[Sean K]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

CBH seems to have a little further to go. Looks pretty positive though, doesn't it.

 

[clowboy]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Close $23.90.

Currently: dollar down:

Kennas, when you say dollar down are u refering to USD? wouldn't that hurt NCM? Ie our dollar is up, reducing profits?

 

[Dutchy3]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Dow up 283 last night ... THE most positive lead in a while .... if NCM can't do it today then ..... well then!

 

[Sean K]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Kennas, when you say dollar down are u refering to USD? wouldn't that hurt NCM? Ie our dollar is up, reducing profits?

I think you are right, but I'm referring to the weak $US influence on POG. Not sure of the sum effect on Aus gold producers in Aus....even? Could be negative perhaps....

 

[Dutchy3]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

CBH seems to have a little further to go. Looks pretty positive though, doesn't it.

Yep ... when the time comes we will make a few bob on her ... the waitings the bit I struggle with ... I can make all sorts of other things happen in my life but I need the wait for the market to give me the $ .... rather hard to handle ....

 

[Sean K]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Dow up 283 last night ... THE most positive lead in a while .... if NCM can't do it today then ..... well then!

Gap up is building. Might find your 24.50 today but EOD not sure. I agree with other comments on big gap up, power for a while and then sell off in the afternoon. Glad I was in yesty in retrospect, but more just a lucky pluck I think.

 

[Dutchy3]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Hi kennas ... I've taken an anchor position as soon as I posted my last on this at the open ... I'm taking a week off next week so only a small bite.

All the same the rest of my positions are having a great run so far today ... I'll just be monitoring next week and closing out should I need to ... no new positions will be opened

 

[Sean K]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

Hi kennas ... I've taken an anchor position as soon as I posted my last on this at the open ... I'm taking a week off next week so only a small bite.

All the same the rest of my positions are having a great run so far today ... I'll just be monitoring next week and closing out should I need to ... no new positions will be opened

Crap day today! Out of 16 stocks, 3 are red! Aaaaagh! How could that be? DJI up 20% overnight, and something goes down. Disaster!!!

Is this a blow off top?

 

[Sean K]

Re: Ascending vs Descending - In Real Time

AGK breaking up?

FGL has some way to go.

NCM looks to gap up at this stage. Match $24.97.

(PS, NCM will probably get smashed now. )