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ARL - Ardea Resources

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Ardea Resources Limited is being demerged from Heron Resources Limited and upon listing will fully own the Lewis Ponds gold-zinc project in NSW, and several gold and nickel projects located in the Goldfields. The Goldfields projects include the Mt Zephyr prospects near Leonora, and the Bardoc Tectonic Zone prospects north of Kalgoorlie.

It is anticipated that ARL will list on the ASX during January 2017.

http://www.ardearesources.com.au
 
After having a great run over the last 12 months, with its share price increasing from 40c to over $2, Ardea Resources was dumped today after releasing the pre-feasibility study for its Goongarrie Nickel Cobalt Project.

I scanned the announcement and it was difficult to figure out the precise reason for the sell off. Perhaps it has something to do with the $600 million capital spend?

Anyway, the share price was down 29c to $1.375 today.

 
ARL recovering today after bottoming out at around 85c. The sell-off was probably a little overdone.

Also, nickel was up 7% overnight.

 
I have jumped in on this one. I like the volume lately and MACD crossover on the 20/21 Sept.

So I will be monitoring to see if I have got it this one right

Has a small amount of shares on issues as well



 

DFS Programmes under way … Final Investment decision later next …. Solid looking Project.

Technically, the bounce off the lows last month on good Volume was hopefully a pre-cursor to the accumulation phase …. Currently in higher/low territory but needs more Volume to create a reliable base.
 
I was also thinking that the old Cawse Nickel site is just down the road in care and maintenance. I would assume that the team at Ardea have visited Cawse and looked at the options. When I worked there years ago it was a pretty well built plant with the usual issues asociated with the autoclave but existing infrastructure would save Ardea millions and would put them a couple years ahead of any schedule that a greenfields project would be able to achieve.

We will have to wait and see.
 
This is the one year chart and currently it is travelling downhill under a falling overhead. In my opinion entry to a trade would be above 67c.

 
I think that we will not see to much action until a finance deal is announced. I am not sure how long this process normally takes but there the below announcement was issued in June so hopefully we get some movement before the end of the year.

 
Good announcement today saw ARL up 1.5cps to 54.5cps. Market still waiting to see where the / if the money will come from to advance the project to the next phase.

 
Well what can I say, after taking the weekend to review my position on whether to cut my losses and run ARL goes for a run itself, just proving that I have got no idea what is going on and randomness is all we have at this end of the market..

Up 17.76% (SP $0.63) today on no news so hopefully something is brewing. Maybe a leaky ship and KPMG have found ARL a partner?

Only 265k shares traded ~0.25% of shares issued and tightly held which attracted me to ARL in the first place.

I am hoping that it continues through resistance levels over $1 but what would i know
 
ARL continued it's nice run this week finishing @ 0.71cps. As you can see below volume is increasing and positive signs all round. No announcements released so I am sitting back and enjoying the ride.


 
another attempt of a BO today. Closed on a high of $0.71...waiting, waiting, waiting..


 
Trav. said:
another attempt of a BO today. Closed on a high of $0.71...waiting, waiting, waiting..
Click to expand...

Market Cap of around $65 million with over $15 million cash in the coffers … with good looking projects …

I don't hold … but if I did, I'd be definitely holding for a bit longer

Chart wise it looks to be in the process of "proving up" the change in sentiment from Traders … but definitely heading in the right direction short and hopefully medium term ….

I note that Nickel is similar to Zinc at the moment ….looking for a bounce from its lows with Inventories way down …… I hold a Zinc stock with similar hopes to this @Trav. …. but ARL is in a way better position than my Zinc Stock so I would happily swap my position ……

This really should move North over the medium term
 
Some delays announced on the timetable for the Nickel / Cobalt Project (Goongarrie) in regards to getting a strategic partner and the knock on effect with the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS)

My timing is not the best when entering stocks and therefore ties up funds, so my initial thought was to sell and get out while breaking even. Then.....fear of missing out kicks in and I decide to hang in there for a while ! Oh well no wonder I am not rich, I probably need to be more rigid with my rules but at this end of the market I think the opportunity for a big win can sway my thoughts too much.

Anyway some info below

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181127/pdf/440nwq70rbzzkn.pdf

 
Trav. said:
My timing is not the best when entering stocks and therefore ties up funds, so my initial thought was to sell and get out while breaking even. Then.....fear of missing out kicks in
Click to expand...

We all have those little trading demons sitting on our shoulder Trav

There are no rules of course, but the Chart is looking better than a couple of months ago …. Probably more time required but it doesn't feel desperate like it did back in September ….

Perhaps @tech/a might be able to give you some commentary over the next couple of weeks or so to see how it is progressing?
 
Trav and Barney.

There are rules in charting.
For price to advance Supply must
either withdraw or be exceeded by demand.

Unfortunately this isn't happening here.
There needs to be a catalyst. Without it price will not rise

Often Very Very high volume without a change in price
can herald a catalyst which can often come later.
This can often be accompanied by a gap in price in the
direction of the move.

So just open up PEX and have a look at the catalysts and the
volume heralding the move . 15/10 is place on the watch list!
Plenty left even though you could have been late.on 15/11-21/11
(That would be me!) decreasing volume on a tight rectangle flag pattern
Was a great setup.

You need to look for volume AND catalyst to have confidence.

 
@tech/a thanks for taking the time to respond. You have posted a great example and I think that I am slowly getting it.

I think that I am trying to preempt the catalyst in a few stocks with the FOMO, but as per your example even if I got in on the 15/11 a nice little profit would have been realised. Then the key is trying to exit!

I will hunt out some more examples and add to a watch list.

Thanks again

Trav
 
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