Normal
While metals across the board declined significantly in price over recent months, their fundamentals are barely changed in terms of tight supply.Moreover, care is needed to check what data sources are really saying, with this as an example:[ATTACH=full]141933[/ATTACH]In the 20 plus years I have monitored metals, I can't recall live warrants for aluminium below 200K tonnes:[ATTACH=full]141935[/ATTACH]Typically when cancelled warrants exceed live warrants a metal's price will go into backwardation. I doubt that's far off for aluminium. Also, without knowing what is presently happening to Rusal's aluminium exports in the present climate, the chance of aluminium's price running faster than usual cannot be discounted.
While metals across the board declined significantly in price over recent months, their fundamentals are barely changed in terms of tight supply.
Moreover, care is needed to check what data sources are really saying, with this as an example:
[ATTACH=full]141933[/ATTACH]
In the 20 plus years I have monitored metals, I can't recall live warrants for aluminium below 200K tonnes:
[ATTACH=full]141935[/ATTACH]
Typically when cancelled warrants exceed live warrants a metal's price will go into backwardation. I doubt that's far off for aluminium. Also, without knowing what is presently happening to Rusal's aluminium exports in the present climate, the chance of aluminium's price running faster than usual cannot be discounted.
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