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ALU - Altium Limited

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bigdog said:
ASX announcement made after the close today
Looking for trading tomorrow where lower end of guidance could see a sell off tomorrow!
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Announcements after the close are poor form in my book. Unfortunately your prediction was right BD.

Looks like an over reaction but who knows. Hit a low of $35.04 earlier but currently $36.10 (down 15%)

Not pleasant for holders but should recover given the 'numbers' aren't that bad
 
Big Sell off today currently 1.9 million shares

Normal lower volume (349000 TO 45500) for past few days

In the first half of FY 2020, Altium reported a 19% lift in revenue to US$92.85 million and a 22% jump in EBITDA to US$36.8 million.

However, due to the coronavirus outbreak and the under performance of its Octopart business, the company warned that it is likely to land at the lower end of its full year guidance range.

Altium reported today full year revenue and margin guidance of between US$205 million to US$215 million for revenue and an EBITDA margin of 39% to 40% (on a reported basis) and 37% to 38% (excluding the impact of AASB16 Leases).





321
 
Dona Ferentes said:
.. but this is the problem with being priced to perfection
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Agree totally, there is no way of reconciling those results and guidance with the multiples this thing trades on. So to hold you have to suspend the use of maths and rational thinking and just go with the YOLO, FOMO, MOMO, whatever. It becomes a game of the greater fool.

It will work until it doesnt, then look out.
 
Altium said it has received a formal, non binding, indicative and unsolicited proposal from Autodesk at $38.50 a share for the acquisition of 100 per cent of Altium via a scheme of arrangement.


Altium said it has a unique position in the electronics ecosystem and unsolicited acquisition interest has developed in the past from partnership dialogues with others in the ecosystem.

Bids, any bids? Please place your bids

Up 35% to around $37
 
Despite the high multiples the offer is pitched at. My gut tells me it's an opportunistic bid once Autodesk realised the company was being slow to re-orient into a post-COVID manufacturing world. The two had been in discussions about a strategic partnership so Autodesk would've seen behind the curtain.
 
One view:


When Will The Music Stop?
Martin Conlon from Schroders Australian Equity fund
 
Dona Ferentes said:
One view:




When Will The Music Stop?
Martin Conlon from Schroders Australian Equity fund
Click to expand...
Music stopped today after announcement for a meeting and price slumped.
Trading is under pause for a while but no trading halt.
Probably a hidden secret leaked and Asx has summoned a please explain.
 
Another surprise (?) or expected reaction from market on ALU result.
Is it a norm now that all (?) stocks being hyper sensitive and capturing higher than published performance factored into price ?
Do not know and surely some or many of us already know on this forum











Since I posted the query on ASF, looked around what others tried to explain and found this one from Motley (not that I follow their recommendation but try to read between factual data published.
Looks like the crash was from the rejection of Auto Desk - I thought this was an old news - did I read a stale news ?
Who has forgotten Motley's ramp up on NXL not long ago ??

 
Last edited:
OOPS- The MF report extract I posted earlier was published on 19th July. I was too quick but looks like it is not too far to slump by 14% today 30 August again .
 
Altium was criticised by shareholders and analysts for rejecting Autodesk’s suggested offer of ‘around $40’ per share (which eventually became $38.50 and then a rumoured top up to $40) in May and June?

The Autodesk approach saw Altium shares leap to a then high of $37.80 as hedge funds and punters poured into the stock in hopes of a contested bid or higher price.

Autodesk wanted Altium to add its software and other design products to its huge suite of CAD (computer aided design) products.

What they didn’t bank on was the immediate rejection by Altium directors and managers and the hard line maintained in the face of pressure from those punters and others for the company to negotiate with the American giant for a higher price and deal.

Autodesk eventually dropped the bid in mid-July and walked away. Altium shares dropped more than 11% to a low of $31.47 the day Autodesk’s decision to walk was announced but after that slide they picked themselves up and peaked on 19 Nov at an all-time high of $43.18.

And Autodesk? This week, its shares slumped after it barely met third quarter guidance and produced a weak outlook. The shares slid 17% at one stage (and well below the levels when it pitched for ALU). Autodesk is priced at 100 times earnings.
 
Liking ALU now that price is once again near all time highs. Price has been trapped in a large range since Covid selloff. Price has also regained the pre-Covid high after knocking back AutoDesk's bid.

 
[Of companies reporting,] "Altium was the standout heading into lunch, up 25 per cent, having reported FY23 revenue and released FY24 guidance implying 20 per cent to 23 per cent growth. Analysts were particularly taken by its stronger subscription revenue, and all of them were upgrading forecasts and share price targets.

"Altium was a bit unusual. It is based in the United States and released its results late on Monday afternoon. Come Tuesday morning, brokers had already been able to update their earnings models and pump up price targets.

"Barrenjoey’s Josh Kannourakis, for example, increased his earnings forecasts by 6 per cent to 9 per cent for upcoming financial years. Morgan Stanley went to a $50 price target from $43.50, while Goldman Sachs bumped its target 14.6 per cent to $47.
 
Brokers - Yeah Right - So here we go again - On recently released figures, ALU's IV is $32.00 to $36.00 which represents reasonable growth in their IV - The Co itself indirectly suggests reasonable growth - But the Brokers, the one's that know best, have again come up with their ridiculous Guesstimates - Ahh well, more poisioned bait for the sheep...
The trick for me, is to trade those 3 Price levels, but I need to expect $32 to $36 within the next 12 mths...
Remember to DYOR..
It may be wise to check what happened late Aug 2022, then what happened during the past 12 mths - the same trading range will probably follow over the next 12 mths....
Last years TA was based around a GAP UP, this year is slightly different in that a Benchmark Candle Formation will set the trend for a while..
 
Altium to be taken over at $68.50/shr cash by Japanese company Renesas. A 34% premium to yesterday's close.

Interestingly, the board have the right to declare an interim dividend without changing the take over price. Maybe Altium have some franking credits to use up and will declare a bumper dividend with their results on 27 Feb? Currently trading under the take over price at a little under $66.

Altium knocked back a takeover offer around $40-45 from Autodesk a few years ago, saying it undervalued the company. Maybe there is still other interest in the company?

I will have made good profits on ALU, but it is a shame a world class company will no longer be Australian.
 
On August 2nd, 2024, Altium Limited (ALU) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, following implementation of the scheme of arrangement between ALU and its shareholders in connection with the acquisition of all the issued capital in ALU by Renesas Electronics NSW Pty Ltd, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Renesas Electronics Corporation.
 
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