AIO - Asciano Limited

investorpaul · 10 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

From a price of $1.55 it would take a 29% drop to hit the price of $1.10

My strategy for this is to invest take up the SPP, buying $2 or $4k (not sure yet). When the shares are issued I will sell down the number required to get my $2 or $4k back. What ever is left I will retain.

Utilising this strategy I will bring my avg purchase price down to $1.60 to $2.50 (depending on how much I put in).

My back up incase things go pear shaped is to Short AIO if it drops to $1.30 (15%). Ie my Short will offset the losses on the amount invested in the SPP.

What are other peoples views on the likely impact on AIO over the next week and a bit (until the shares are issued)?

skc · 10 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

investorpaul said:
From a price of $1.55 it would take a 29% drop to hit the price of $1.10

My strategy for this is to invest take up the SPP, buying $2 or $4k (not sure yet). When the shares are issued I will sell down the number required to get my $2 or $4k back. What ever is left I will retain.

Utilising this strategy I will bring my avg purchase price down to $1.60 to $2.50 (depending on how much I put in).

My back up incase things go pear shaped is to Short AIO if it drops to $1.30 (15%). Ie my Short will offset the losses on the amount invested in the SPP.

What are other peoples views on the likely impact on AIO over the next week and a bit (until the shares are issued)?

Given the large premium between current and SPP price, significant scale back is likely. So be cautious if you short AIO to lock in profit - you will have to guess a little bit on how many shares you are likely to get.

Sennej · 10 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

I just applied for $10k worth & if I get them will look to maybe sell half to get some capital back. I am keen to hold onto quite a few of AIO though as I see them as having long term potential to increase significantly. I imagine the share price will drop once the shares are issued but am hoping it will recover & continue to increase. One to keep an eye on IMO.

gfresh · 10 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

Remember that 1.227bn shares were already listed on 27th July from the earlier placement. The price actually rose from ~$1.40 to $1.60 shortly after that period.

It's pretty confusing the amount of placements they have done in this short period of time.

There was another retail placement of 370.75M shares listed 22nd July for 1-1 entitlement.

This (current) SPP announced 24th July only will allow $100M of shares to be issued, or 90.9M shares @ 1.1 .. 100M / $10k (assuming everybody took maximum offer) .. only gives 10,000 shareholders to receive full entitlement. Seeing as the number of shareholders applying could be 10 times that, the odds of it being scaled back are pretty high.

Hence full hedging as skc points out could be risky, as you may so only receive $1k out of $10k. Say you hedge 100% at $1.50, the price jumps up 10% immediately after issue due to everybody buying back shorts and you are in the hole $1k.. then you receive only $1000 shares.. 55/110 * $1000= $500 .. net profit: -$500 (if my math is right anyhow)

investorpaul · 11 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

I applied for $4k worth.

I am expecting a scale back and at worse predict to get $2k (min amount). Only 5 trading days to go until they are issued so the risk should be minimal.

However should it drop below $1.30 I will short to cover the $2k only (should i get $4k and the price drops then ill lose out).

Pretty low risk strategy for me IMO but as always DYOR

gfresh · 20 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

Scale back is announced today to 35% .. I'm glad they just didn't go for a flat figure, but scaled back on how many you applied for. Quite a tidy profit at current price of ~$1.52

Shares have been delayed for trade until Monday though

swm79 · 20 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

35% wasnt good. went for the $10k so ending up with just $3,500 is very disappointing.

would have loved to get more!

gfresh · 20 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

$1272 (@ $1.50) / 10k = 12.72% return is poor for depositing some cash in an account and waiting 2 weeks? Don't be greedy :

As a couple predicted, I think it was pretty obvious it was going to be strong scaled back.

swm79 · 20 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

not greedy when you're MASSIVELY diluted by institutionals!

yeah, pretty obvious about the scale back - but i was cynically hoping

3ricko · 20 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

Has anyone received any shares yet? I just checked my Commsec account and the AIO number was still the same.

tasmart · 20 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

3ricko said:
Has anyone received any shares yet? I just checked my Commsec account and the AIO number was still the same.

Just checked my Computershare centre.

I got 3182 which is about 35% of what I applied for.

Interesting to see it oversubscribed & scaled back! Less dilution!

UMike · 21 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

tasmart said:
Just checked my Computershare centre.

I got 3182 which is about 35% of what I applied for.

Interesting to see it oversubscribed & scaled back! Less dilution!

So did I ....

I reckon they should of paid down more debt

'spose the question for me is should I buy some more and stay or go. :car:

dan-o · 21 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

how long do these things normally take to return our money for unallocated shares? ie the other 65%... i have grand designs for that money and the amcor raising...

ajestocks · 28 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

Has anyone received their unallocated money yet, i thought we were to receive it this week????

swm79 · 28 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

yes, i received mine back yesterday - i bpayed it so they sent the cash straight back into my account

ajestocks · 28 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

swm79 said:
yes, i received mine back yesterday - i bpayed it so they sent the cash straight back into my account

thanks, i bpayed too but have not received anything yet in my bank account. hopefully they send it out to me today.

freebird54 · 28 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

ajestocks said:
thanks, i bpayed too but have not received anything yet in my bank account. hopefully they send it out to me today.

yes I bpaid and they have my bank details but nothing yet - emailed them - no reply

Wonder how much interest they are making on it!!!

dan-o · 28 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

i got my money back today, they wouldve made a bit of interest in holding the extra cash....................................................................................

ajestocks · 29 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

dan-o said:
i got my money back today, they wouldve made a bit of interest in holding the extra cash....................................................................................

I received a cheque in the post yesterday - I bepaid, thought they would put the money directly into my account.

UMike · 30 August 2009

Re: AIO - Asciano

ajestocks said:
I received a cheque in the post yesterday - I bepaid, thought they would put the money directly into my account.

I too got a cheque?????

I'd rather the shares (for obvious (extra character) reasons)

AIO - Asciano Limited

investorpaul

skc

Goldmember

Sennej

gfresh

investorpaul

gfresh

swm79

gfresh

swm79

3ricko

tasmart

UMike

Klutzing in Thai

dan-o

ajestocks

swm79

ajestocks

freebird54

dan-o

ajestocks

UMike

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