Agricultural Economic Nonsense

[wayneL]

This post concerns agricultural commodities and climate change scaremongering, but I've put it in the economics forum, because to me, the point is more about economic misinformation and BS, and in fact, appears in their finance section.

This article appeared in the UK Daily Telegraph for tomorrows edition:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ino-threat-blows-commodity-prices-higher.html

El Niño threat blows commodity prices higher
With the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the horizon and concerns over food shortages, crops are locked in a bull market.

Leaving aside the climate change bullcrap,the bit that caught my eye was the bit in red.

Locked in bull market?

WTF?

It's true we had a massive spike in the ags last year, and prices remain off all time lows, it is a mighty stretch to categorize agriculturals as being locked in a bull market.

Consider this graph of Powershares Ag ETF



That looks like typical commodity basing out pattern. i.e. There is no bull there. (Though there is a seasonal bullish trend due fairly soon).

Soybeans remain the only remotely semi bullish contract in the grain complex.

My question is WTF are these clowns playing at? Is it purely lazy, zero research hack journalism, or is there some other tin foil hat worthy explanation for the appearance of these types of articles

 

[Timmy]

Wayne, if you make this a poll please chalk my vote into:

purely lazy, zero research hack journalism

Better to be sensationalist than not.

Is the Telegraph one of the quality papers there? I have vague recollections as it being so, which makes the BS all the more inexcusable.

 

[MRC & Co]

I'll go with Timmy there.

The last article I just read by a journalist, ranted about how earnings season (and it's expectations) didn't mean a thing when talking about the market bounce.

Rather it pointed to the head and shoulders pattern failing and technical traders being caught short, that resulted in this rally.

LOL, since when do institutions position billions of dollars based on the good old head and sholders pattern?

 

[Aussiejeff]

I'll go with Timmy there.

The last article I just read by a journalist, ranted about how earnings season (and it's expectations) didn't mean a thing when talking about the market bounce.

Rather it pointed to the head and shoulders pattern failing and technical traders being caught short, that resulted in this rally.

LOL, since when do institutions position billions of dollars based on the good old head and sholders pattern?

Why, since Obamarama instituted his new Policy Of Belief.

All you now need to justify any movement by Mr Market towards Nirvana is 3 little words...




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aj

 

[gfresh]

What does the 10 year chart look like? No idea myself, but sure they are not speaking of the longer-term market?

 

[wayneL]

What does the 10 year chart look like? No idea myself, but sure they are not speaking of the longer-term market?

10 year corn http://charts.quote.com/cis/qc?cont...showextendednames=true&showdatainheader=false

Some reflection of inflation in there, but locked in a bull?

 

[truevalue]

If you google El Niño and the Southern Occilation Index you will realise that they have nothing to do with climate change and scaremongering but rather are well documented phenomena (El Niño and La Nina) and are closely tracked by all commodity producers. An El Niño event has historically lead to crop shortages and higher commodity prices.

 

[Temjin]

That's typical dramatised journalism as you have claimed.

Mind you though, I believe agriculture is DEFINITELY in a secular bull market, but certainly NOT because it is due to climate change or some bull**** like that, but on real supply and demand picture and in relation its dominated currency. (US Dollars)

There are reasons on why successful investors like Jim Rogers has been promoting agriculture like crazy and is putting money where his mouth is. (like buying up alot of agriculture lands/farms, etc)

But yeah, like you said, the journalist just made up something without having a real understanding behind what he/she had said.