AGM - Allegiance Mining

nioka · 25 February 2008

Warren Buffet II said:
Just reading and quoting from one of the many previous entries from Nokia. Nokia can you please explain this in more detail ?

WBII

As I have said on the ZFX thread, The directors probably had a sweetener to capitulate and maybe the commencement of production MAY be delayed. I still feel robbed and let down by the directors so I have sold out, last week half were converted to MCR ( in time for the dividend) and the other half sold this morning. I ADMIT DEFEAT. I've taken my profit and moved on. Nioka means "green hills" so I am looking for greener pastures on the other side. AGM is now in the past. (At least we got another 10c)

Logique · 25 February 2008

I feel a little let down by AGM directors (where is their "Reject" bravado now?), after their private discussion with ZFX they are now recommending acceptance of 1.10.

Retail holders are now left with little choice but to accept 1.10, especially as we are told the offer will expire on 7 March.

What I can't quite figure out is why (and who) of the placement of the Buy order for 500mill shares in the depth on the ASX? Perhaps it's just ZFX covering all bases.

nioka · 25 February 2008

Logique said:
What I can't quite figure out is why (and who) of the placement of the Buy order for 500mill shares in the depth on the ASX? Perhaps it's just ZFX covering all bases.

It is a bit of a mystery, when I put in my sell order today ( when trading was suspended) there were two single 500,000,000 orders showing. This is more than the total number of shares. One disappeared shortly after. It is possibly someone gambling on obtaining a blocking holding of more than 10% so they can get ZFX to pay them a premium at the end of the game but it is most likely an agent for ZFX. To me the game is over.

Logique · 25 February 2008

There is a logistics consideration with the administration of this revised $1.10 offer. After today I make it only 9 business days until the 7 March offer closure mentioned by ZFX in the announcement today. How are ZFX going to get a new offer document out to AGM holders in time for accepters to return it by 7 March?

Come on ZFX, a little more realistic with the timing please. You are a good chance to get enough acceptances now. So ZFX, please extend the new $1.10 offer by two weeks until 21 March, so AGM holders don't have to sell their holdings on-market, incurring brokerage (and therefore not necessarily selling to ZFX).

Warren Buffet II · 25 February 2008

Logique said:
There is a logistics consideration with the administration of this revised $1.10 offer. After today I make it only 9 business days until the 7 March offer closure mentioned by ZFX in the announcement today. How are ZFX going to get a new offer document out to AGM holders in time for accepters to return it by 7 March?

Come on ZFX, a little more realistic with the timing please. You are a good chance to get enough acceptances now. So ZFX, please extend the new $1.10 offer by two weeks until 21 March, so AGM holders don't have to sell their holdings on-market, incurring brokerage (and therefore not necessarily selling to ZFX).

Easy, go to the register website, download the acceptance form, fill and fax it back. It will take you 10 minutes.

WBII

banska bystrica · 25 February 2008

$1.10 was top dollar. AGM shareholders should consider themselves very lucky indeed. Lots of blue sky in that price.

nioka · 25 February 2008

banska bystrica said:
$1.10 was top dollar. AGM shareholders should consider themselves very lucky indeed. Lots of blue sky in that price.

Could I ask what qualifications you have and what research you have done to come to that conclusion?

banska bystrica · 25 February 2008

nioka said:
Could I ask what qualifications you have and what research you have done to come to that conclusion?

Nioka,
Projected annual production of approx 8500 tonnes of concentrate at current nickel prices would make a NPAT of approx 65 million or 8c per share. At $1.10, ZFX have paid a forward P/E of 13.75. That is very expensive. Forget about blue sky figures. The market doesn't pay much for blue sky.
AGM shareholders have done very well. 13.75 times net profit is TOP DOLLAR.
Be thankful and move on.

nioka · 25 February 2008

banska bystrica said:
Nioka,
Projected annual production of approx 8500 tonnes of concentrate at current nickel prices would make a NPAT of approx 65 million or 8c per share. At $1.10, ZFX have paid a forward P/E of 13.75. That is very expensive. Forget about blue sky figures. The market doesn't pay much for blue sky.
AGM shareholders have done very well. 13.75 times net profit is TOP DOLLAR.
Be thankful and move on.

Odd that you use 15000 tpa for ZFX thread but it is only 8500 tonnes on the AGM thread. Plenty of valuable blue sky there if you ask me.

banska bystrica · 25 February 2008

nioka said:
Odd that you use 15000 tpa for ZFX thread but it is only 8500 tonnes on the AGM thread. Plenty of valuable blue sky there if you ask me.

Not odd at all. The fact is ZFX have a plant available in addition to the one AGM are building. AGM have only one plant with initial capacity to produce 8500 tonnes of concentrate.
Only ZFX have the capabilities to increase production almost immediately.
Take the blinkers off Nioka. You have received top dollar. 14 times earnings.

mexican · 25 February 2008

Well there you go. Done and dusted!
Got out last week ($1.05) after the "flutter" $8 mill loss on the market and no pics (plant) or talk of the start up in March things were not looking good. CEO's well what can you say about them!
I am sure Avebury will serve ZFX well.
AGM served me well, but would have been nice to see a full year of production!

michael_selway · 25 February 2008

banska bystrica said:
Nioka,
Projected annual production of approx 8500 tonnes of concentrate at current nickel prices would make a NPAT of approx 65 million or 8c per share. At $1.10, ZFX have paid a forward P/E of 13.75. That is very expensive. Forget about blue sky figures. The market doesn't pay much for blue sky.
AGM shareholders have done very well. 13.75 times net profit is TOP DOLLAR.
Be thankful and move on.

But interms of AGM after merging with ZFX, they could drive costs down so AGM-NPAT may be more?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -0.2 -0.3 10.7 8.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

rustyheela · 1 March 2008

would anyone know wot % ZFX would hold as of now.
also interested in opinions on wether people are accepting or declining the offer. obviously if ZFX only hold 10- 15% its only a passive investment vehicle and at most a potential blocking stake for the future?

Ted · 1 March 2008

Last change notice issued by ZFX on friday states 12.23%. Some trades did go through at 1.10 of friday but a lot more went through at 1.105/1.110. 1 of 2 mil and 1 of 4 mil.

I asked the same question myself about selling, I get the impression a lot of people are still holding and waiting to see what will happen at the eleventh hour. I am thinking a lot of people are hoping for an extension on the acceptance date.

Someone mentioned on another forum that a 15mil sale went through and were speculating that it may be the Chinese or a third party looking to block ZFX.

Not sure of the time frame for a change of interest notice.

trendster · 20 March 2008

Hi All,

Been a holder of AGM over the last 2 years now.
Recently sold half on market for above the Zinifex offer.

I'm very puzzled to know why anyone would be buying over $1.10 now that Zinifex hold over 60% of the company.

Any thoughts on this?

I'll be keeping the rest of my holding until the last days in case something else pops up, you never know what twists and turns are ahead.

cheero

d_crome · 8 May 2008

Chinese are out - ZFX have finally won.

RIP AGM - it was a good ride that many of us will remember........

Bushman · 19 December 2008

AGM Directors will go down as the 'commodity boom' heroes for you ex-AGMers who took the funds and ran. AGM shares price would be +80% down otherwise and look, OZL is placing Avebury on care and maintenance.

Mmmmm ....bought at the top of the market. Ouch.

Oz Minerals Ltd will close its flagship Avebury nickel mine in Tasmania with the loss of 189 jobs, due to the low price of the metal.

Chief executive Andrew Michelmore said the company had been forced to make a hard decision given the financial challenges facing the company.

AGM - Allegiance Mining

nioka

Logique

Investor

nioka

Logique

Investor

Warren Buffet II

banska bystrica

nioka

banska bystrica

nioka

banska bystrica

mexican

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

rustyheela

Ted

trendster

d_crome

Bushman

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