AGM - Allegiance Mining

Any idea what the drop in Nickle price (and possibly demand) is having on the SP? Will AGM weather the storm and resist the drop as it's just so darn close to production or is it time to sell and jump on that Uranium band wagon?

d_crome said:

Any idea what the drop in Nickle price (and possibly demand) is having on the SP? Will AGM weather the storm and resist the drop as it's just so darn close to production or is it time to sell and jump on that Uranium band wagon?

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IMHO, should nickel continues to suffer in the next few weeks, AGM's sp could go down to about 80c. At 80c is where Jinchuan had agree to buy in. However, that'll only be a temporary retrace. AGM's due to earn some serious money in just a few short months time.

By the way, I wouldn't go about hopping on the U-bandwagon as yet. If you believe that Rudd might win the election then check this out....

No nuclear power, says Rudd

June 10, 2007

OPPOSITION Leader Kevin Rudd today insisted Australia could reach ambitious emissions reductions targets without resorting to nuclear power.
Mr Rudd said the key was to establish an emissions trading market not to adopt nuclear power.

"The science of this is pretty basic. All the scientists around the world agree that we have got to reach a point whereby we actually bring total emissions down. That is the carbon target,'' he said.

Mr Rudd said once the target was set, the emissions trading scheme and the market could establish the most cost-effective means of achieving that target.

"Then you would see a huge investment in alternative clean energies like solar, like wind, like geothermal and the rest. You'd set the right price signals for clean coal technologies and carbon sequestration and also for gas.

"On the question of nuclear ... our position on that is for Australia, with this rich array of other alternative energy options available, we can achieve our overall carbon target without taking on the extra safety and environmental risks which the nuclear option for Australia would represent.''

Mr Rudd said Prime Minister John Howard's commitment to a policy of pledging and reviewing climate change targets sounded like pledging before the election then reviewing afterwards.

"Mr Howard has just got to get fair dinkum about climate change. One of the risks to Australia's economic future is us not acting on climate change and water,'' he said.

"Mr Howard has in fact fiddled while Rome has burned on this question.''

Mr Rudd said that dated back to the late 1990s when advice started to emerge on the need to act on climate change and continued right through until the lead-up to the election.

He said Mr Howard had been a climate change sceptic now trying to convince people he was a climate change convert.

"If you are fair dinkum, seriously fair dinkum about climate change there is one benchmark - you would have established a carbon target a long time ago and you'd be setting up an emission trading scheme and doing something about it,'' he said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21881014-1702,00.html

Its funny how individuals who post on stock forums are given all the red letter warnings about the contents that they post. Yet reporters can publish any crap they like and not be accountable. 60c? How the heck?

jj0007 said:

Its funny how individuals who post on stock forums are given all the red letter warnings about the contents that they post. Yet reporters can publish any crap they like and not be accountable. 60c? How the heck?

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As I said before...someone is dreaming or is trying to put the fear of death into people so they can buy.....I am sure the Chinese would buy all at 60cents...which is a dream....I personally think we are in for a bounce of the SP as AGM is oversold.....as far as 80cents...maybe...but I think the Chinese are watching and should someone want to sell it down to trigger stop losses we will see a hugh scramble for these share...see Fox Davies report...after all they got the experts who did the research....very good buying at present price

Computer and Broker automatic trading in place....Its frustrating to see 1 or 500 shares being traded by brokers...also see latest report..Intresting...as soon as the Nickel province is established and more finds are made AGM will show its colour....

Topped up with a decent parcel today. Saw an opportunity for a quick trade. Looks like it could pay off. DOW's up and nickel is rebounding. Up +3.41% on kitco.

Hi All

Does anyone want to hazard a guess for the production date?

I will officially put mine in at Sept 17th. Anyone else?

That's when the fun will start

Cheers

The 30th April media release estimates production in Q4, they were a number of days ahead of schedule but this part of Tassie is not the place to be in winter...but makes for a perfect start spring/summer...so early November for me...

Allegiance look like they will have another positive day tomorrow. Nickel stocks should bounce. Nickel price is rebounding strongly. Speculation caused the drop in Nickel. This was only speculation. Demand always remained strong. Nickel currently up +4.53% on Kitco.

chris1983 said:

Allegiance look like they will have another positive day tomorrow. Nickel stocks should bounce. Nickel price is rebounding strongly. Speculation caused the drop in Nickel. This was only speculation. Demand always remained strong. Nickel currently up +4.53% on Kitco.

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Read....the Stainless steel news on Kitco metals....and that tells the full story,,,,looks as if the LME has not got it under controll...hope they got out of their shorts as NI is not getting back to $25k in the near future...maybe in 4 to 5 years...maybe,,,,and AGM is only 12 to 14 weeks away to production...and who thinks the SP will be under 90cents better think again

VWAP For AGM on Friday was 88.74. It closed at 86. Some holders are too impatient. The DOW closed up 85 points and Nickel closed higher for the third day running after being in negative territory earlier in the session. Due to nickel holding its price on Friday added with the combined heavy rise on the DOW I can see AGM having an open near the 89-90 mark again on Monday due to the VWAP being around that price on Friday..it was oversold on the close. It will be interesting but the negative sentiment on Nickel wont last IMO. You will have all the brokers etc writing on it but Nickel prices is here to stay. Demand doesnt just disappear.

chris i definatelly agree, oversold period ihmo. When it goes into production the price will definately rise atm i in at 87c .

There is nothing definate about this. I'm continually surprised by people's bullishness on resource stocks rating them off current commodity prices when we are going through what might be a peak. This has come off because the price of Nickel is comming off unsustainable highs due to supply demand fundementals. Read the price of nickel thread for more info.

Technically, I see support around this level, where both horizontal and up trend support meet, which probably coincides with a nickel support line. There are other Nickel plays hitting support as well. Risk is still to the downside here, and 70 cents could not be discounted on further weakness in the PON. This is not a forecast, but an observation of where downside support is - if it goes that way. Needs to break $1.10 now to be considered going back up, IMO.

Hopefully for holders there are no delays in ramp up to production, which could put further pressure on the sp.

I've said this before, it's a great company with a very solid outlook, but will always be effected by factors outside it's control, such as PON, which is correcting.

Nickel got corrected last night..it was down almost 8%. I sold on the open at 87 for a break even. Kept my core holding though. No way was I going to leave margin loan invested money in this for the short term though. Long term its fine. I wont sell my holding from 35 cents..waiting untill I have held 1 year.

This had a good article in Money magazine . As soon as price of nickel starts an upwards trend i'm in again. This downward trend in Nickel price was more due to speculation than actual physical demand.

UraniumLover said:

This had a good article in Money magazine . As soon as price of nickel starts an upwards trend i'm in again. This downward trend in Nickel price was more due to speculation than actual physical demand.

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UL, what do you think about the rise in Zinc to such hights? Was that just demand, or was that speculative buying? Very interesting. You can't have it both ways perhaps?

Nickel stocks at LME decreasing...hardly significant at this stage but hopefully this will continue as it will obviously reflect on the price and demand for nickel.

Nickel is still going down..but even at 30 k/ton AGM will be doing well. I will also top up again when nickel turns the corner. Very cheap atm.

Santoro said:

Nickel stocks at LME decreasing...hardly significant at this stage but hopefully this will continue as it will obviously reflect on the price and demand for nickel.

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With closer analysis price of nickel was 16 dollars at 8000 tonnes left LME 6 months ago.
currently it's at 17.20 at 9000 tonnes left LME.
The market fundamentals has hardly changes in 6 months. If you look 1- 5 years back it's a no brainer..
I don't believe demand is out stripping supply by much and even now LME stocks are showing signs of falling already. It has only broken the 8000 left barrier once all year indicating Nickel is in short supply due to strong chinese demand for Stainless steel.
Some Analysts predict stock piles will double by Autumn - speculation
Buyers should soon move in I believe to avoid much higher future prices
As explained by this article:

Today's official LME nickel closing prices - cash - $17.55/lb - 3 month buyer - $17.28/lb (14.44% higher than 1/1/07). Not that anyone seems to care at the moment, but LME inventories took a hit yesterday, revealing a 234 tonne loss. While Rotterdam received 18 tonnes, they also shipped out 54 tonnes. St Louis also shipped 18 tonnes, Gothenburg, Sweden, shipped another 30 tonnes, and Busan, South Korea, shipped a whooping 150 tonnes. This could mean different things, but most likely, it would imply some producers are gambling the price of nickel won't go much lower, and placed buy orders. Or they had to buy, whatever the price. This would imply that the non-existent demand, that some analysts have been reporting, is actually still out there, just playing it smart. As we have stated before, this is not a time where it is much fun being a buyer of nickel It was much easier telling the boss the nickel you bought last week, that hasn't arrived yet, is worth $20,000 more today than what you paid for it. These days that trip to the boss' office can be a very long and lonely walk. When the market is in a fall like it has been, a few days can make a huge difference. On the 1st of this month, if you paid the LME cash price, a tonne of nickel would have cost you $50,445. Monday of this week, that same tonne would have run you $41,200. Today, that tonne will cost you $38,700. When you are placing PO's for multiple tonnes, you can see how waiting another day could save, or cost your employer, potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars. And if that doesn't convince you, take that down to a per pound price. If you can save $.30/lb over what your competitor paid yesterday, or will pay tomorrow, it can make a big difference in your profit margin if you are selling stainless steel sheet for $3/lb. And we get ticked off when we fill up our gas tank and it drops by 2 cents a gallon the next day!!

How low can we go....I certainly will not get anywhere in the competition but....80cents looks to be the bottom...at present 79c...why I say this is the Chinese partner bought 11% of the company a few months back at 80cents, as Ni started its price higher...but you all saw Ni come back from US$25 to present $18....or $37500 US a tone.....AGM will also be very profitable at US$20000 a tone...So, what I am saying AGM will start producing from Oct/Nov onwards and if you check the figures the company will have a very profitable operation...and present price after the big sell off must look very attractive ..once operation,or production starts the SP will be a lot different than it is now...I BOUGHT and am holding a good size parcel