Julia
In Memoriam
- Joined
- 10 May 2005
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Marcus Padley (stockbroker/analyst) was one of five guests on Radio National's "Fora" programme on "The economic downturn - what should we do".
His comments are something all new people (and plenty who are not so new) should listen to, especially those who believe that "if a stock gets cheaper, then it's more of a bargain", and that "averaging down" makes any sort of sense.
Marcus Padley is the final speaker.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/foraradio/stories/2009/2555295.htm
"is buy and hold dead? good for Warren but not for those who haven't got their mortgage and school fees covered and can't afford to be patient with a 30+ year time line"
This quote seems to apply more to brokers rather than their customers. Brokers don't earn commissions unless their customers are churning their account.
....Ali Moore goes weak at the knees when interviewing him...
LOL .. I go weak at the knees watching Ali Moore
Yep. Thanks for posting these points. Hopefully it might encourage a few more to listen to his comments..
- falling price always means 'sell'. the market falls 3x faster than it rises. therefore act quick in a bear m. humans take a long time to get the message, but you don't have time in a bear market
- cash is the best stock in a bear market
- no one ever tells you to sell... the finance industry is a marketing machine, designed to suck you in, not let you out. therefore sell decision has to be yours....and industry will resist you.
- nobody "knows".....investment comes with risk, don't ever think it's safe
- is buy and hold dead? good for Warren but not for those who haven't got their mortgage and school fees covered and can't afford to be patient with a 30+ year time line....buy and hold has always been dangerous and a compromise.....it's buy and watch like a hawk ALWAYS
I reckon the Storm clients could attest to this.- no one ever tells you to sell... the finance industry is a marketing machine, designed to suck you in, not let you out. therefore sell decision has to be yours....and industry will resist you.
1. Ever punching your arms up in delight it means time to sell.
2. One thing a falling share price tells you, its not buy me, if something falls in price everyone wants to buy it. What’s with this culture? It should be sell me not buy more. Stocks fall three times more then it rises, loses have three times more of an effect on you then wins.
3. Stock markets rise slowly and fall quickly. You need the confidence to make the decisions quickly.
4. Humans take a long time to get the message. Investors take a long time to get the message. Cautious at the bottom of the market and risk takers at the top, investors are not wired to be successful; we take too long to get the message, always behind the curb.
5. No one ever tells you to sell. Best stocks in a bear market are CASH, that’s it. Finance industry is a marketing machine, designed to suck you in and not to let you in. Very difficult to get out! The sell decision has to be yours, no one else will tell you to. Next bear market, you have to make this decision for yourself.
6. “No one knows”. The only person that knew what was going to happen was Karl Marx, he went short 100 years ago and went bankrupt, and timing is everything! Investment comes with risk, it’s not safe, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
7. Buy and hold breads inaction and denial. You can’t make a decision on today’s info to make a projection for 20 years in the future, its arrogance and blindly stupid. This is what caused people to lose 50% of their capital over the past 18 months. You can’t tell me that you wouldn’t be in a better position if you sold 12 months ago. We are not Warren Buffett. Buy and hold was never alive, its weakness was covered by a massive bull market. Now this is over and even he is losing money and getting slaughtered.” If you never sell it means you’ve never suffered a loss”, who ever said that is an idiot.
gg, as far as I know "Fora" doesn't do transcripts.Thanks all.
I heard some of it live.
Has anyone got a transcript of it?
gg
Thanks all.
I heard some of it live.
Has anyone got a transcript of it?
gg
Thanks Julia. Marcus is I think is probably one of the only stckbrokers out there who literally tell it how they see it. To bad his newsletter his to expensive. w.
If he dispenses information so freely, then who buys his Daily Newsletter?
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