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Hey BT,

Let me pick two highlighted items in your latest:

1. Whenever I see the word "predict", I suspect the writer still has to "get it". Trade planning is not about "predicting" the next move, but assessing the relative odds of three different outcomes: Is it more likely for the sp to rise? fall? or move sideways? Most of it is pure guesswork based on experience - either from the study of general chart behaviour - study candlesticks, patterns, volume, ... - or more complex indicators/ signals. But even if the odds favour, say, a bounce off an inverted Hammer at the bottom of a decline, we cannot predict that it will happen, but only make a decision at this time based on the 3:1 likelihood. If it turns out that, this time, the sp follows a less-likely course, we must have a Plan B - which usually means abort the trade and stop further losses. What if we stopped out too early? As a wise man once said, "I'd rather be out of the Market, trying to get in, than in the Market, desperate to get out."

2. Don't believe for a second anyone that tries to tell you trading profitably is easy. Trading is a trade. You don't become a good plumber by attending a $10,000 2-night seminar on plumbing. Nor do you become a good electrician by buying 5 CDs for $995 and listening to some news reader mouthing platitudes. All three take dedication and an apprenticeship of several years' duration.

... and an ongoing learning process to stay abreast of new developments that help avoid emerging hazards.

But it's a challenge that many people find stimulating. and a few lucky ones even make a living from it.