The market is a fickle beast - I wouldn't bother trying to guess. You can narrow it down, for instance, Iron Ore is still the way to go but beyond that, the herd is chaotic and often irrational.
I bought some MPJ a little while ago on the basis that it was a relatively low risk penny dreadful since the SP is underwritten by its shareholdings in other listed miners and its cash balance. They've also got some pretty low key exploration of their own tenements going on. I figure it's this that will move the SP as you can essentially buy their own tenements for free right now.
I highly doubt the HC boys that try to ride ramps to financial freedom do very well. Sure, individually they occasionally make a killing in very short order, but they tend to also be the ones left without a chair when the music stops. I'd say its likely that their style of trading means that a single loss is likely to wipe out several months worth of gains, if not more.