Recent content by waterbottle

NDX to 12k, DJI to 30k. We haven't even started with the emergency rate cuts yet. Once the Fed approaches ZiRP and restart QE (because no one wants to touch US bonds thanks to geopolitics) then we'll be close to bottoming.

Big moves on the NDX today, almost 4% down. Anyone opened up a short position? SQQQ?

Wow so its an Eastern bloc, Western bloc and then there's America....

Huh... https://www.forexlive.com/news/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-tracker-swan-dives-into-recessionary-territory-20250228/

This could be the start of the down leg for a recession. Market waking up to BS valuations for "AI". Dot com 2.0?

Savings have been pointless since ZIRP

Don't time the market etc etc I still think JPowell will have to continue cutting. Trump does not like high interest rates.

What the hell is a government aligned job and what the hell is a built in protection?

Did they announce it? Agreed. Although IMO it's only a matter of time before the US rates are below Oz rates, in which case we follow.

Time to start the recession thread. The Fed knows it.

Deglobalisation and protectionism in an ageing world with fewer jobs is a recipe for either hyperinflation or rebellion. No government would jeopardise their own future by leading their citizens down a path where goods are increasingly scarce and harder to obtain. So if you think that is the...

How long is that going to be possible for? The cynical view of globalism is that it allowed the West to dump shitty jobs on desperate people elsewhere in the world. Unless that trend is going to reverse in a meaningful way, or we have a replacement for China, the long term trend is we're going...

Is the West really going to give up on a government with nukes and 1 billion people? Nah I don't think so... Manufacturing needs to happen. So who's going to do it? Africa - corruption is rife, infrastructure not available. See how China went with industrializing east Africa. India -...

All part of the plan. Oz property will remain buoyant as it has behaved in previous recessions.

True, it's a noisy indicator. But the trend has been set for it to reverse. Central banks are cutting rates globally (Canadians have had their 3rd cut). Once they start they don't tend to stop. The Fed has already indicated they'll cut 25bps in September (some are betting on 50bps) so that will...