Recent content by waterbottle

Is the recession already here? https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/trade-war-fallout-china-freight-ship-decline-begins-orders-plummet.html The impact of the diminished freight container traffic to North America will be significant for many links in the economy and supply chain, including the ports...

NVDA dumping after hours as it's had to pull 5.5 billion worth of expected income given recent export controls to China 🤣 NVDA was driving the AI boom, right?

Lmao Xi playing the diplomacy game very well

MAGA is now a clown show. Bonds pricing this accordingly.

Sure. And this could still be a diversion to what is still occurring in the underlying economy. Q1 GDP is due on the 30th April and the latest GDPNow estimates are still -2.x%. If true, recession is inbound, tarrifs or not. As for Trump blinking - it looks like the bankers got to him and...

Very good point. Government moves slowly despite Trump wishing otherwise.

Yep, I thought this would be the play. The problem is this won't just affect relationships with China. When the Canadian et al tarrifs were first announced, everyone other government thought they wouldn't be affected. Now everyone has a 3 month pause and best case scenario there's a universal...

Nope, I was toying with TQQQ calls but didn't pull the trigger. I think I'll be looking for short entry positions though at this point as i don' think this is going to be a sustained rally - just a part of the volatility, particularly given the fundamental change in geopolitics. The question...

Nah, still a war between US and the rest of the world - just delayed by 3 months. It's the same play he had with Canada.

Trump blinks. Nasdaq up 12% holy shite

Excellent. Division within the ranks leads to more chaos and volatility. Last time it was Vivek and he ended up being dismissed. Will the same happen to Elon?

Looks like Trump has confirmed 104% tarrifs on China lmao https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-08-25/card/reciprocal-tariffs-set-for-12-01-a-m-wednesday-white-house-says-W4dT7cJdV1dkgm2Jc4OJ

Well we're pretty much heading into game theory territory now as China has come out saying that they would match US tarrifs like-for-like "until the end". I am awaiting the EU response but essentially IMO it's a safer bet that Trump won't yield...

Except this time geopolitics has changed. There is no coalition of the willing and there are no WMDs.

Right. The grunts have gone the way of the dodo. Which goes to the point- how does restoring American manufacturing actually help the worker? The part of the electorate who want manufacturing to come back are probably those reminiscing about the grunt work that is now mostly gone.