NBN Rollout Scrapped

[dutchie]

People will take it up. Takeup is already over 30% in some areas, after only being available for ~9 months. At this stage, forecast takeup was only about 12%.

Why was the forecast so low?

So that they can say look how good it is, the takeup is x% - where x is any number bigger than 12!

......... and it won't be until 2020 before people realise we've been completely left behind by the rest of the World, and we have to start rolling it out again.

Just like we don't want to be completely left behind by the rest of the the world with a carbon tax.

(there are so many that I don't think we'll ever catch up)

 

[NBNMyths]

I cant think of any other reason someone would set up a specific and comprehensive blog on the subject and spend hours refuting every negative comment about it on ASF

I guess you don't have any interests outside your job then?

Nothing you're passionate about that doesn't result in being paid?

You don't have any children and want them to have access to world-class technology?

 

[MrBurns]

I guess you don't have any interests outside your job then?

Nothing you're passionate about that doesn't result in being paid?

You don't have any children and want them to have access to world-class technology?

You must be the only person in Australia who's hobby is the NBN, really it just doesnt make sense.

My children will have world class technology not organised by that half wit Conroy but probably by Goolge who know what they're doing.

By the time this is rolled out it wil be well and truly redundant like the computer I bought last month.

 

[NBNMyths]

Why was the forecast so low?

So that they can say look how good it is, the takeup is x% - where x is any number bigger than 12!

That forecast was made by KPMG-McKinsey and is based on the takeup of similar projects worldwide and in Australia.

The NBN, like every technology, has relatively low takeup rates initially.

It was no different for the telephone, fax, internet, broadband. Or radio, television, PCs, iPods, tablets, smartphones. All had very low sales/adoption initially.

The standard technology adoption curve:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_lifecycle

 

[NBNMyths]

You must be the only person in Australia who's hobby is the NBN, really it just doesnt make sense.

My children will have world class technology not organised by that half wit Conroy but probably by Goolge who know what they're doing.

By the time this is rolled out it wil be well and truly redundant like the computer I bought last month.

That's hilarious. In the one sentence, you've bagged the NBN optical fibre network for its "future obsolescence", while saying you'd rather some "world class technology" from Google.

I wonder if you get the irony?

Here's a hint: https://fiber.google.com/about/

And another: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-02-19/google-boss-praises-nbn/1949508

The chairman of internet giant Google has thrown his support behind Australia's National Broadband Network (NBN).

The Federal Government has come under pressure from the Opposition because of the cost of the $36 billion rollout.

Speaking at a conference in Barcelona, chairman Eric Schmidt says Australia has shown great leadership on the issue.

"Australia is leading the world in understanding the importance of fibre," he said.

"Your new Prime Minister has announced that 93 per cent of Australians, which I guess are all the folks in the cities, will have gigabit or equivalent service using fibre, and the other 7 per cent will be handled through wireless services of a nature of LTE," he said.

"This is leadership from Australia, which I think is wonderful."

Seems Google and the NBN are on the same page, huh?

 

[MrBurns]

Seems Google and the NBN are on the same page, huh?

I just have no faith in Conroy and Gillard like millions of other Australians.

They both like the technology, big difference is the present Govt cant put pink batts in ceilings so this may be beyond them..........the Libs may tidy it up.

https://fiber.google.com/about/

Thats what I was talking about, if Google were doing it I 'd be much happier

 

[NBNMyths]

I just have no faith in Conroy and Gillard like millions of other Australians.

They both like the technology, big difference is the present Govt cant put pink batts in ceilings so this may be beyond them..........the Libs may tidy it up.

https://fiber.google.com/about/

Thats what I was talking about, if Google were doing it I 'd be much happier

I should add that I don't care who does it.

So long as:

• It's a Fibre To The Premises network;

• The fibre covers the vast, vast majority of Australian premises (>90%);

• Everyone else at least gets something;

• It provides regulated, universal nationwide pricing (including the non-fibre rural areas).


Of the 2 policies on the table, the NBN is the only one that achieves those things. If the coalition upgraded their policy to FTTP, then I'd probably be fine with it. But, as it currently stands, they are proposing FTTN, which was a dubious goal 5 years ago, let alone now or in 5 years time.

They also haven't really outlined their coverage or capability goals. On the plus side, they have vaguely committed to universal pricing, albeit via a (probably clunky) subsidy system.

 

[MrBurns]

AND by the time Labor roll it out it WILL be redundant which is what I meant.......perhaps not said clear enough.

 

[boofhead]

How will it be redundant? I suspect you have a strong personal bias against it because of your political leanings and not because of technology or economics.

Various forms of wireless communications have been around for a lot longer than fibre communications. Wireless gets further and further behind.

 

[Calliope]

While over 50% of labor/green voters support it, even amongst coalition supporters the supporters and opposers are evenly split, and it becomes more popular with them each poll.

Just look at the Kiama Downs trial site. Blue ribbon Liberal area, and the highest NBN takeup of anywhere in the country at 40% already.

You obviously don't realise the irony of this statement, Jamie. The lefties will vote for high speed broadband, but they won't put their money where their mouth is.

 

[MrBurns]

How will it be redundant? I suspect you have a strong personal bias against it because of your political leanings and not because of technology or economics.

Various forms of wireless communications have been around for a lot longer than fibre communications. Wireless gets further and further behind.

Any tech project that wil take 10 years or more to implement will be redundant before it's finished.

The map doesnt show much at all but plenty of this rubbish -

We have not commenced work on the NBN in your area just yet.

•To keep up to date about when you will get access to high speed broadband, please subscribe to our newsletter.
•Or you can find out more about the rollout.

and they give another lisnk to more BS and yes you're right my political bias does lead me to believe that Gillard couldnt get anything right let alone a project such as this and Google's comments ? Political niceness.

 

[boofhead]

Any tech project that wil take 10 years or more to implement will be redundant before it's finished.

I'm sure you don't understand why the fibre buildout is very much not redundant. That's the point of fibre. For relatively low cost, the same fibre will be able to have massive amounts of speed increases as the termination technology evolves and faster speeds are affordable. I suggest you research how the submarine fibre cables have had capacity upgraded considerably through the years without needing to replace the physical fibre.

the physical buildout of the fibre cables is a major part of the cost. The cables have long life. As different transmission technologies develop for it you reuse the same cables. It is sort of like how the copper network has been through stages to provide voice/dialup then ADSL by replacing only the equipment at the ends of the copper except fibre can go to terabits/s currently and that is increasing. Also note fibre powers the wireless solutions.

That's the point of transmitting light and not electrical signals. Light has massive capacity. If you want to know details may I suggest contacting someone that works in a physics department at a university.

It reminds me of Abbott at the 2010 election campaign not believing the NBN could go to 1 gigabit/s from the then 100 mbit/s for relatively low cost. He made comments about something plenty of 15 year olds know more about than him.

 

[MrBurns]

I'm sure you don't understand why the fibre buildout is very much not redundant. .

With the rate of progress these days I wouldn't be too sure something wont come along to superceed this long before it's done.

 

[So_Cynical]

And if people dont take it up the money will come from taxes, after it all falls in a hole, we will pay, I dont get connected till 2014 the whole thing is just another Gillard "reforming Govt" jaunt.

You cant compare this to the health budget, get real.....

Good to see you earning your kickbacks from trolling for Gillards waste machine.

Your commenting without any real idea of what your talking about..you didn't even know the copper is going to get turned off...at least have the courtesy to have a rudimentary dig around of the facts.

You must be the only person in Australia who's hobby is the NBN, really it just doesnt make sense.

Spend some time on whirlpool and get a clue.

 

[MrBurns]

Your commenting without any real idea of what your talking about..you didn't even know the copper is going to get turned off...at least have the courtesy to have a rudimentary dig around of the facts.
Spend some time on whirlpool and get a clue.

Thats BS too, what millenium do you think they'll ditch copper ?

I think you need to get a clue yourself, you make yoo many assumptions out of arrogance or ignorance or a mixture of both.

 

[Smurf1976]

They're not using your taxes.

The Government equity to the NBN is being funded from the issue of Government bonds, not from taxation revenue. The bonds (including the interest paid on them) will be repaid from network revenue, not from taxation dollars.

This is interesting in itself given that governments of all persuasions have spent the past two decades effectively ridiculing this funding model for anything.

I'm in favour of this approach, but can't help but notice the huge backflip this constitutes to all that's been said about roads, rail, power, water and other infrastructure. The wheel may have turned it seems...

 

[sptrawler]

Hey boofhead and So_Cynical, MrBurns has every right to be stressed about another government stuff up.
Some of the towns they will run fibre to, will probably be ripped and put back to nature within the next 20 years.
The cost will blow out, that is a given, all government tenders(to the lowest bidder) have loop holes trucks can be driven through.
NBNMyths, has a great understanding of the technology and the method of delivery, however I am sure he will be dissapointed in the end.
As the costs blowout and economy contracts so will the grandiiose delusions or better still the economic reality, sink in.
Just another labor f####up on the horizon, watch this space. I am seeing a huge increase in the amount of people driving around in NBN logo 4 X 4 vehicles. Not seeing a lot of people pulling in fresh blue cable.

 

[sptrawler]

This is interesting in itself given that governments of all persuasions have spent the past two decades effectively ridiculing this funding model for anything.

I'm in favour of this approach, but can't help but notice the huge backflip this constitutes to all that's been said about roads, rail, power, water and other infrastructure. The wheel may have turned it seems...

Does it all work on the premise, that the revenues generated exceeds the interest cost of the bonds.
In other words a means of defering a loss being recorded untill a later date. The date of maturity of the bonds, creative accounting.

It all sounds familiar IMO, like River City Motorway, Brisconnect, and Connect East. Projected returns, real winners, projected traffic flows trust us on this we are the government and we have checked the figures. LOL,LOL
Boy don't you get over government guarantees. :1zhelp:

 

[MrBurns]

Just another labor f####up on the horizon, watch this space. .

No doubt about it, but will be left for the Libs to sort out like everything else.
This poster was supposed to be a joke but it's a statement of fact now.

 

[noco]

According to the latest reports, the NBN is well behind schedule and way over budget.

The target of connections before the 2013 election will only be 25% complete. So what will be Conroy's excuse? He certainly won't admit incompetence. He can't blame Abbott.

I cannot see it's completion by 2020 at this rate and what about the cost?

As someone else commented, "it will be redundant before it is finished".

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/...nbn_threatening_to_be_another_labor_disaster/