AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

[prgudula]

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1514&EID=68408270

SUGARKANE FIELD OPERATIONS AND PRODUCTION UPDATE
Aurora Oil & Gas Limited (“Aurora”) is pleased to provide the following update on operations and
production at the Longhorn, Ipanema and Excelsior Areas of Mutual Interest (“AMI”) within the
Sugarkane Gas & Condensate Field, Texas.
Across Aurora’s gross acreage position of 73,000 acres there are presently 4 drilling rigs and 2
fracture stimulation crews operating. With drilling times averaging 26 days for each well, activity
remains on target to complete approximately 60 wells within that area during the 2011 calendar
year.
Production Data
The Sienkiewicz well has now been on production for a period of 60 days with pleasing results as
outlined below:-
AMI Working
Interest
Total Gas
Production
(mmscf)
Total
Condensate
Production
(bbls)
Average Daily
Equivalent Oil
Rate (boe/d)*
Sienkiewicz #1H Longhorn 25% 120.6 39,352 957

 

[kitehigh]

The market is not to impressed by the production update, seems like a lot of people are now selling out this morning. I thought the update was positive?

 

[Assasin]

You may have to wait a bit for the report to be digested.
There are huge upswings in that report from time taken to drill, being on target for the year and the amount of oil and gas going to sales.
Very exciting.:

 

[kitehigh]

You may have to wait a bit for the report to be digested.
There are huge upswings in that report from time taken to drill, being on target for the year and the amount of oil and gas going to sales.
Very exciting.:

Exactly what I thought, yet it's getting sold off big time this morning. Must be a lot out there who think other wise and are getting out. Maybe they are long time holders who brought in at way cheaper prices and have decided to take their profits now and look for something a bit more exciting. I hope that is the reason anyway.

 

[adobee]

first time i have seen AUT start to slip a bit... whilst it maybe for aut holders its not uncommon that stocks do go backwards sometimes... Interesting to see if their is a change in substanial holding out soon and it is someone existing or fund existing their position... Keeping my eye on an entry point ..

 

[Joe Blow]

I don't want to see any more posts in ALL CAPS in this thread please.

There's absolutely no need for it.

 

[TabJockey]

Good fundamental news...heavy selling. Not a good sign. Probably wont see the end of this slide untill next week.

 

[Assasin]

Exactly what I thought, yet it's getting sold off big time this morning. Must be a lot out there who think other wise and are getting out. Maybe they are long time holders who brought in at way cheaper prices and have decided to take their profits now and look for something a bit more exciting. I hope that is the reason anyway.

I've held this stock for well over 12 months and I can't speak for other LT holders, but I wouldn't sell at these levels. What else would you put your money into.
Condog has always blown me away with the acuracy of his targets, but even if you take a conservative view, $5 is my target for end of year.

Magic, I'm now out of money but would love to take on another parcel.

Holding, AUT, EKA, TXN, HOG, MHM.

 

[kitehigh]

I've held this stock for well over 12 months and I can't speak for other LT holders, but I wouldn't sell at these levels. What else would you put your money into.
Condog has always blown me away with the acuracy of his targets, but even if you take a conservative view, $5 is my target for end of year.

Magic, I'm now out of money but would love to take on another parcel.

Holding, AUT, EKA, TXN, HOG, MHM.

Yes exactly. I have been buying up Gold/Silver stocks as well as I believe they will do well in the future. I will watch it closely and maybe even look to add to my position if it falls much further.

 

[Noskcid]

Yeah, Im thinking about topping up on a bit with this one. See how it goes in the next week or so.

 

[kitehigh]

Yeah, Im thinking about topping up on a bit with this one. See how it goes in the next week or so.

It bounced off 2.68 quite quickly and now back to 2.72. I was lining up an entry and than I saw the bounce so I will just see how it goes as well.

 

[Assasin]

Yeah, Im thinking about topping up on a bit with this one. See how it goes in the next week or so.

Just be carefull waiting on AUT. It's had a habit of bouncing very quickly to new levels.

But seriously, have a good look at where it has come from, where it is now, and where it is going. Todays report is a taste ot things to come. A good 1st quarter report due out later this month will also set the tone financially. IMO.
Good luck.

 

[kyrondgm]

Any chance some big players are shorting the stock in anticipation of a big rise in the near future? Otherwise this drop defies all logic. Giving some people a good chance to top up regardless. AKA me.

 

[Mister Mark]

A lot of very small trades as well, for what reason one would wonder?

 

[skyQuake]

Any chance some big players are shorting the stock in anticipation of a big fall in the near future? Otherwise this drop defies all logic. Giving some people a good chance to top up regardless. AKA me.

fix'd that for u

Gap fill at 2.68 bounce yesterday; Now back to there to crack stops imo

 

[isplicer]

Dowwwn it goes! 2.67 - anyone topping up?

 

[kyrondgm]

fix'd that for u

Gap fill at 2.68 bounce yesterday; Now back to there to crack stops imo

haha thanks mate, that was just plain silly of me

 

[Flipper]

Dowwwn it goes! 2.67 - anyone topping up?

Topped up at 2.69 just before close. Hopefully things turn around a bit tomorrow.

 

[condog]

Looks like damn good value to me. Look at all those wells waiting and about to be untapped at a rate of one per week and a bit. They are drilling at a phenominal pace now, all the time adding value.

Flow rates have been fantastic and declines rediculously good.

Top up opportunity

Thats rediculous to fall on that news. Its been light volume taking us down, so watch the rebound as it drys up.

I think many where hoping for flow flow flow and got wait wait wait. thier loss in time.

I guess you could say weve had the pull back and consolidation that we needed and time has allowed value to catch back up. Shouldnt be too long imo and we will be notching up some new highs. As these energy prices are fantastic for our repayment times. They are basically 25% higher then we where working on a few months ago. This translates to imo about 40% faster well repayments. As the profit margin is factorial in the way it increases with oil price.

Eg if our costs all up for opex and capex, tax royalties and lease payments of each well is say $35boe, (this is a hypothetical number)then if we sell at $70 we get $35boe profit, where as if we sell at $105 we get $70boe profit. Or repay well costs at twice the pace.

Id like to see Jon hedging his prices at $100+ as it safely puts the company in a fantastic position going forward.

 

[estseon]

With the wells seeming to flow at around the 900 boepd level and current prices, they should be paying for themselves over 3-4 months. The Excelsior wells must be cheaper to drill so, if they flow at similar rates, they'll pay back even faster. Looking forward to the quarterly report to see how the older wells' production is averaging out. There should be some broker reaction to this release and the brokers have a better view on how the Board is viewing the performance because of their contact. Fraccing is still causing a bit of a log jam.