2010 Federal Election

[trainspotter]

Our first ever aboriginal MP, our first ever Green MP, our youngest ever MP at 20 years of age PLUS 4 independents .... WOW .... strange days indeed.

 

[Whiskers]

"Rushing to an early election" might have been the wrong thing to do but the ALP would have been staring certain defeat had it not replaced Rudd. He was seriously on the nose and the ALP could hardly have campaigned with any conviction if Rudd was still Prime Minister. Kroger might be a slimeball but he's absolutely correct - the ALP wouldn't have had a prayer with Rudd in charge. He'd lost the party and had lost the electorate, regardless of the beat-up from the Liberals during the campaign.

Plus the ALP strategy would be that Gillard couldn't string out the time to the election because there'd be increasingly deafening attacks on her illegitimacy for removing the sitting PM.

Given the result, can't wait to see the market sink like a stone on Monday.

Not sure it's that plain. No doubt Rudd was down in the polls, but if the government had gone full term as Rudd had insisted his and the ALP populatity may have improved as he worked out the mining tax in particular and better economic number started to come through.

The reason I say that is because Labor has a notorious history of branch stacking and backroom deals at all levels. I tend to think Bill Shorten was the instigator of this mess for the ALP. He's a cunning 'Rat' tending to manipulate others to do his dirty work. I suspect Rudd's image/populatity was sabotarged to some extent by Shorten and his cohorts before he made the leadership coup. That's his style, to stack the deck before he plays his hand, usually a swift and brutal hand, because he's a moral-less power hungry coward.

I'll wager a little bet that Shorten will make a play for the top job somewhere down the track.

The other thing we need to know more about is the role of Shorten and his core players including some from the union movement and public service in the overspending debacles. It seems that a relative few projects had double and triple normal costs accounted for most of the blowout. Thats typical of the sort of infiltration of the rank and file that Shorten has used over the years to stack branches... eg favor swaps and protection between unions, public servants and companies, especially in the building industry.

You will recall Howard making laws to considerably shut down these sort of corrupt favors in the building industry. But there is still a major problem within the public service and particularly local government with corruption with builders and developers.

I suspect the only reason Shorten, via Guillard, ambushed Rudd to call an early election in the guise of getting some key problems resolved quickly and get a mandate, was shallow window dressing to try to justify going to an election early.

I don't buy the arguement that the 'Rudd stigma' would have harmed the ALP had Gillard stayed the full term. On the contrary, if Rudd was truely on the 'public' nose as Shortern's collaberators would have us believe, the longer Gillard waited the stronger her support would have gained.

What you say here is a bit of a contradiction.

the ALP (Shortern's) strategy would be that Gillard couldn't string out the time to the election because there'd be increasingly deafening attacks on her illegitimacy for removing the sitting PM.​

But, that contradiction is true.

I think history will reveal that Shortern needed the election to be brought on early before the truth about the back room deals became more public knowledge and Gillards 'honeymoon' was over.

Ironically, it looks like Gillard has had one of the shortest honeymoons in Australian politics.

I'm watching with interest to see the backlash within the ALP re the Shortern/Gillard led coup and similar activities in NSW and Qld and the likely demise of the ALP nationally again.

BUT... as I said earlier... watch out for a popular uprising from Rudd again.

From a public presentation perspective, ie marketing, Rudd is more photogenic and pleasing to the ear for more people than Gillard. He just might be the one person able to get those lost seats back in Qld in particular... bearing in mind that many Queenslanders look down on most of the éstablishment politicans in Sydney and Melbourne and warmed to a Queenslander PM.

Yes, let the blood-letting, recounts and arge barge, wheeling and dealing begin. Fortunately, I think if Shortern sticks his nose into the independants and Green members he might just get it smacked in with the 'blood' spilt on the ALP as a brand (un)popularity for a long time.

So, I suppose we now need to largely forget about the major parties and learn a lot more about a handful of members and senators who likely effectively, control the country.

 

[bellenuit]

I give victory of the TV channels to Channel 9. By far the most entertaining. I loved the part when Wayne Swan was interviewed and the Liberal guy (?) and Barnaby Joyce stuck into him. Rude, but entertaining. SBS was so boring. Someone on Nine's Twitter feed suggested that the 4 commentators on SBS had fallen asleep, so I switched to it and they were right. Unbelievably dull.

I found the projections interesting. ABC seemed to point to a Liberal win, Sky to Labor and Nine to a hung parliament.

Gillard was impressive in her speech. Sounded very natural, unlike her panic speeches of late. Tony was Tony.

Idiot of the night must go to Barnaby Joyce, who alienated one of the Independents (New England I think) when in a few days the Lib/Nats may be courting him for support.

 

[trainspotter]

Barnaby Joyce and Bob Katter have previous history ... they shared a padded cell in Ward 4 of Graylands Psychiatric Hospital. Tony Windsor was Nurse Ratched in a previous life. They will get along famously.

What happens if Windosr and Katter form a bloc and Bandt and Wilkie go the other way with the Labor Party? OH OH ! Some smooooth talking is gonna be needed to pour oil on this one.

Bandt has said he will not side with the Libs and will ONLY work with Julia.
Wilkie is disgruntled as he got punched in the political ring one too many times by the Libs as well.

 

[prawn_86]

I think this is a fantastic result.

It shows that both major parties have moved so close to the centre that no one can tell them apart, even with socialist style forced voting. People just cant differentiate between the 2, and those that can vote Green or Independent. Great result!

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

I think this is a fantastic result.

It shows that both major parties have moved so close to the centre that no one can tell them apart, even with socialist style forced voting. People just cant differentiate between the 2, and those that can vote Green or Independent. Great result!

Spot on Prawn. It's nothing new though. We don't have much of a choice with banks, supermarkets, cars, consumer goods and political parties. We'll just take what we are given.....again. Yes freedom to vote...but only provided you vote for one of the above. This is why I voted for this mob. They probably could never deliver, but that's not the point. At least they're not disguised as something else. Then again.

http://www.cpa.org.au/guardian/2010/1468/01-vote-for-real-change.html

 

[Calliope]

I think this is a fantastic result.

Well the Green supporters have certainly won gloating rights. But I despair for any rational governance when special interests minorities are in control in both houses.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Spot on Prawn. It's nothing new though. We don't have much of a choice with banks, supermarkets, cars, consumer goods and political parties. We'll just take what we are given.....again. Yes freedom to vote...but only provided you vote for one of the above. This is why I voted for this mob. They probably could never deliver, but that's not the point. At least they're not disguised as something else. Then again.

http://www.cpa.org.au/guardian/2010/1468/01-vote-for-real-change.html

The only problem comrade, is, that the Communist Party prefer a ONE Party system.

gg

 

[nioka]

I think this is a fantastic result.

It shows that both major parties have moved so close to the centre that no one can tell them apart, even with socialist style forced voting. People just cant differentiate between the 2, and those that can vote Green or Independent. Great result!

What result? There wasn't one. We'll be back voting again within 2 years. In the meantime there will be nothing much allowed to happen. The greens only got the protest vote, they didn't really get any mandate at all. There was no democrat option as a protest this time.

If there were any winners it was the independants, should be more of them. Even Pauline Hanson or Mark Latham would have ended up Senators this time had they stood.

It was only those that couldnt see any difference that DID vote green and add to those that were already watermelons.

 

[Logique]

Two words: sovereign risk.

For democracy = a win
For the bush = a win
For the Australian market = uncertainty = destabilizing

I don't see much political stability ahead, unlikely that the next parliament will run the full 3 year term.

 

[prawn_86]

Well the Green supporters have certainly won gloating rights. But I despair for any rational governance when special interests minorities are in control in both houses.

What result? There wasn't one. We'll be back voting again within 2 years. In the meantime there will be nothing much allowed to happen. The greens only got the protest vote, they didn't really get any mandate at all. There was no democrat option as a protest this time.

If there were any winners it was the independants, should be more of them. Even Pauline Hanson or Mark Latham would have ended up Senators this time had they stood.

It was only those that couldnt see any difference that DID vote green and add to those that were already watermelons.

For the record i didnt vote green. I voted for Senator Online and the Democratic Liberals.

The result i am reffering too is the fact that people are waking up and realising the 2 party system has made Aus stagnate for the last 10 - 15 years.

 

[Calliope]

I hope that Gillard can cobble together a government. They say that a country gets the government it deserves, and I think we deserve a government that lost the election on numbers of votes but depends for its legitimacy on the "progressive" Greens and maverick independents all with chips on their shoulders.

Bring it on I say.

 

[drsmith]

I hope the Coalition are able to get 73 seats and form a minority government with the 3 former NP independents. That will be unstable enough thank you very much.

Next best would be a minority ALP government (74 or 75 seats) with the Green representative and the ex-Green independent (assuming he wins in the final count.

An alliance that involved a major party, conservative based independents and green based independents would in my view, be a disaster.

It will be interesting to see how financial markets take all this in tomorrow.

 

[electronicmaster]

We need to make sure none of the major parties come to power. We need a mixed bag of parties that is ruled only by a lesser party.

The goal behind this idea? So we become in control of our own destiny.

That is? If you value true freedom, free speech and a free economy ......

Well I suppose that is what has happened. Everything is going according to plan :jump:

Next step is when the war starts in Iran. Every one will see Gold, Silver, Oil and relevant resource/mines go up in price.

This will make our government go out of control while they are still looking for a leader.

I really smell a rat here people. A Hung Australian Government at this time of Pearl?
.................................... :whip


Former CIA Analyst David MacMichael: 8 Days Till Armageddon?

[ http://www.aussiestockforums.com ]

It is evil I say

 

[gordon2007]

Next step is when the war starts in Iran.

Yes, I agree with you there. Think it's only a matter of time before something big happens in regards to the middle east\persian gulf. I think that is a whole seperate thread though.

 

[drsmith]

I hope the Coalition are able to get 73 seats and form a minority government with the 3 former NP independents. That will be unstable enough thank you very much.

Next best would be a minority ALP government (74 or 75 seats) with the Green representative and the ex-Green independent (assuming he wins in the final count.

An updated count (ABC) shows the ex-Green independent not making it.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/liveblog/

ABC now predicts 73 seats a piece for the major parties with Hasluck being the tightest of the three doubtfulls.

 

[Calliope]

He's not finished with Julia yet.

The Daily Telegraph's Warren Brown

 

[IFocus]

The Independents will need to be careful history shows once Independents hook up with one side they are well no longer Independent and often voted out next election.

Really looking forward to watching Bob Katter in action I thought he had the best election ad and he is just great for politics.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/fed...-of-the-north-20100804-11cqg.html?autostart=1

 

[Calliope]

I watched the 7.30 Report special tonight. O'Brien interviewed the three original independents. It reinforced my view that Bob Katter is a loose cannon. I would put him on a par with Barnaby Joyce for intelligence. The Party that includes him is taking the risk that this maverick has the power to bring down the government.

And neither Party can form government without him. Another election is looming.

 

[trainspotter]

It will be interesting to see how financial markets take all this in tomorrow.

London to a brick the AUD will cop a hammering, Mining stocks will follow the spiral. Banks will get caught up in the wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Base metal stocks will have a little ray of sunshine thrust upon them through the storm clouds.

Any one else got any suggestions?