2010 Federal Election

[Calliope]

Can we trust the opinion polls?

 

[Logique]

OK OK ... time to put up or shut up ... Liberals by 4 seats for me. NO HUNG PARLIAMENT. Bottle of Vintage Moet is the bet. Any takers?..

Well, tomorrow's polling day, make or break. That bet's too rich for my blood TS, but if you're right I'll gladly contribute to a whip round to shout you a bottle of Moet.

Hurts to say this, but my gut says it will be same outcome but the other way round, an ALP win. Either way, by tomorrow night I reckon the time will be = beer o'clock. Coopers Sparkling of course, at the good Doctor's recommendation.

There is still the Senate, will any lower house government be able to function effectively if there is a Greens balance of power.

Fascinating with this monster thread, the poll percentages have barely changed from the beginning.

Thanks for your forbearance Joe Blow.

 

[Calliope]

This is a poll in the SMH today. The SMH is backing a Labor victory. I think all it indicates is that more conservatives read on-line newspapers than socialists. It's a similar thing for ASF posters.

: Who gets your vote?
Coalition
53%
Labor
29%
Greens
15%
Other
3%
Total votes: 11121.Poll closes in 2 days.

 

[sails]

This is a poll in the SMH today. The SMH is backing a Labor victory. I think all it indicates is that more conservatives read on-line newspapers than socialists. It's a similar thing for ASF posters.

Yes, I have noticed online polls seem to strongly favor the coalition which has been in conflict with other polls. We will find out tomorrow which ones were the most accurate.

And I did enjoy the "Yes Minister" clip - I think it says it all...

 

[Calliope]

Yes, I have noticed online polls seem to strongly favor the coalition which has been in conflict with other polls. We will find out tomorrow which ones were the most accurate.

And I did enjoy the "Yes Minister" clip - I think it says it all...

Thanks sails. It is nice to get a bit of feedback.

 

[nioka]

What do they have to do with the Greens? As far as i can tell they are independent

What backroom deal have they made with Gillard so that she gets the green preferences?.

 

[prawn_86]

What backroom deal have they made with Gillard so that she gets the green preferences?.

If you actually clicked the link you would see im not talking about the Greens in the post you quoted.

 

[IFocus]

OK OK OK OK ... time to put up or shut up ........ Liberals by 4 seats for me. NO HUNG PARLIAMENT.

I agree this is quite likely and wouldn't bet against it.

 

[IFocus]

I suspect the deal between Labor and the Greens is to legislate a tax on carbon during the next term but such that the tax would not actually commence till after the start of the following term.

That would satisfy Bob Brown's demand for a carbon tax this term in that it would be legislated by the next election (expected 2013).

This is plausible but would still be surprised if it happened regards less of the comments that they are in bed with each other the gap between Greens and Labor is more than most realize politically.

Current Labor is closer to the Liberals than Greens

 

[IFocus]

So tomorrow Australia will likely elect Tony Abbott

A right wing social conservative

1st job as PM will be to ring President of China, US maybe Japan nope he going to ring Nauru brilliant!

His vision for the future of Australia is.................

 

[sails]

His vision for the future of Australia is.................

Something a lot better than the last three years - of course IMO...

The specifics will follow - just would be a relief to have the country run by people with some experience in government.

 

[doctorj]

Thank god I don't have to vote in this election... Is politics really that devoid of talent that there's no one better to run for PM???? No vision, no foreign policy experience... Next to these muppets, Rudd is in a different league

 

[IFocus]

Something a lot better than the last three years - of course IMO...

The specifics will follow - just would be a relief to have the country run by people with some experience in government.

This sums up my own view quite well from SMH

Why Labor under Gillard deserves a second chance

First, it did successfully get us through the global financial crisis; the nation is not suffering from the crippling economic malaise – the loss of confidence and jobs – still found in the United States and throughout Europe. It is true, some of the economic stimulus was wasted or went astray – but it has to be understood and judged as an emergency measure enacted and managed in haste. That does not excuse it, but it goes a long way to explain it.

Second, Labor does have a plan – properly costed – to reduce national debt and get the federal budget back in surplus; its economic policy settings seem about right.

Third, it has promised to build the national broadband network and increase taxpayer value in the crucial areas of education and health, by forcing the states to perform and be accountable.

Fourth, it has performed well, if not better, in important though less than contentious areas such as defence, national security and foreign policy.

And my view of Abbott the politician

And last – what is the alternative? For all his obvious leadership qualities, Tony Abbott has not yet articulated a cohesive and positive plan for the nation. He has been correct as Opposition Leader to highlight waste in some of the government's stimulus spending. He is also justified in asking whether federal and state Labor governments can deliver on big spending promises such as the Epping-to-Parramatta rail link. He has run a good campaign – one that, if the polls are correct, will bring him very close to a historic victory. He has shown a steadiness during the campaign that has not been obvious during his political career. Until the last few weeks, he was worryingly inconsistent in many policy areas. He needs to show the Australian people that in government he would not revert to policy flip-flops as the political wind changed. If he wins, then we wish him all the best. But it really isn't yet his turn.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/edito...-deserves-a-second-chance-20100819-12s56.html

If Abbott gets up at least he will provide plenty of material to return service the shrill threads from the Liberal supporters

Still after tomorrow our opinions count for nothing what will count is the democratic right to cast a vote and how lucky we are to be able to carry out this simple act?

 

[sails]

...Still after tomorrow our opinions count for nothing what will count is the democratic right to cast a vote and how lucky we are to be able to carry out this simple act?

Yep, that is so true and something we can definitely agree on...

 

[wayneL]

Still after tomorrow our opinions count for nothing what will count is the democratic right to cast a vote and how lucky we are to be able to carry out this simple act?

Actually, you are compelled to carry out this act. You do not have the simple freedom to abstain.

 

[drsmith]

What backroom deal have they made with Gillard so that she gets the green preferences?.

I suspect the legislation of a carbon tax/ETS during the next term of government with the tax to take effect the following term.

 

[Julia]

Thank god I don't have to vote in this election... Is politics really that devoid of talent that there's no one better to run for PM???? No vision, no foreign policy experience... Next to these muppets, Rudd is in a different league

Well, we tried Mr Rudd and he turned out to be an arrogant, egotistical control freak, viz the opinion polls, and his assassination.
The trouble with Mr Rudd was that he was all big ideas, even 'vision' if you like, but no capacity to follow through.
It all started with the great song and dance about the apology to aboriginal people. The nation wept with joy. What actually changed for the aboriginal people? Sweet nothing.
And so it all went downhill from there.

However, I don't think you'd find too many who'd disagree with your unhappiness regarding the two current candidates. That we have to vote for the person we think will be the least incompetent is sad indeed.

till after tomorrow our opinions count for nothing what will count is the democratic right to cast a vote and how lucky we are to be able to carry out this simple act?

Good reminder, IFocus. So easy to be critical of all that we take so much for granted.

 

[trainspotter]

Who cares ?? We will not be better off under either delusional party. For all the words we have typed have acheived NADA. People will vote with their hearts and not their heads.

This is not to say that the party that wins government will be better than the other. This is merely pointing out we can rant in here and it makes no difference.

All of the promises do not kick in until 2013/14 ... ironic isn't it?

 

[Logique]

Lateline was again good viewing last night.
Leigh Sales, again resisting any urge to partisanship, again incisive and professional.

Michael Kroger and Paul Howes rattling away. Howes saying workchoices [porky pie] twice in one list, and again indignant at Kroger's "..Paul you're better than that.."

Howes, a trade unionist. They don't even wait to be elected to parliament these days.

Kroger said something I agree with: if Gillard wins, she'll be in the chair a maximum of two years before Bill Shorten deposes her. And so it goes with Labor under the NSW Right model, the factions and unions elect the leader. Voters, they say, thanks for your interest, but we make the decisions.

The contest is actually between Shorten and Abbott.

 

[Calliope]

The contest is actually between Shorten and Abbott.

Gillard never would answer the question as to what cabinet posts she would reward Arbib and Shorten with for making her PM. Hopefully we will never find out.