GRY - Gryphon Minerals

[Sean K]

Well, didn't finish very well yesterday. And check out the closes of the past 4 days. Looks pretty ordinary really. Plenty of sellers once it gets to the 26c mark. I stick by what I said above, with 1m in the bag by the looks a pretty good proposition between here and 17c, if it comes off. 116m @ .25 = $29m MC. So, they're worth $29 an ounce just on Banfora. And 1m is a minimum target for this year I'd say. Could be much more.

I'm still waiting for a potential nother leg down to take advantage of. Hope I haven't missed the boat completely.

 

[shag]

well another trading halt boys...
and only a slight varience in yesterdays price, ie it dropped to 20 odd late in day then returned to a solid 24....

 

[shag]

well it seems they couldnt get their sh-t togeather in the trading halt period, now its a suspection for a bit.
i suspect delays combined with mention of a capital raising isnt the best news....

 

[shag]

oh well, a quarterlies report out, god knows if its good, but before it came out the price ramped up a bit and has kept solid since.
its likely a good trader as it jumps around a little.

 

[Sean K]

This has been a champion the past 3 months. 10 to 35c in practically a straight line. These don't last forever of course, but this little phase of consolidation looks pretty familiar. If the trend continues, it's due to break. Or, the pattern changes....

Can't post chart for some reason, will update later.

 

[Adam A]

Results due from further drilling in the not to distant future as well

The company has a great website for further info

Look forward to your chart Kennas

 

[catman]

Heavy Resistance at 34 and 36c. Needs to break it.

The 200 SMA on the weekly should hold it from going down.

Next stop 44c. Ride the wave until the bend at the end.

 

[shag]

This has been a champion the past 3 months. 10 to 35c in practically a straight line. These don't last forever of course, but this little phase of consolidation looks pretty familiar. If the trend continues, it's due to break. Or, the pattern changes....

Can't post chart for some reason, will update later.

yes a chart would be nice if u sober up enough sometime soonish, if u can find the computer let alone the send button amongst all the bottles. like u only need one hand to drink with....
maybe those ew'ers have given u some special mexican potion or spell.

yes im awaiting the next set of grades etc, but u wonder whats leaked out since its had such a good solid run.

the press is just comming around to the idea that maybe the rio fiasco will push the chinese monies south american and african way. more relevant to base metals but has to be good for these guys too directly or indirectly.

the takeovers/consolidations must start soon now the bhp/rio matter is reasonably sorted and the recession that we had to have, didnt happen.

 

[catman]

Here's a chart. 20 week ema has crossed the 50 ema.

I would expect it to either consolidate are here for a while or make a break of 36c resistance

 

[Sean K]

yes a chart would be nice if u sober up enough sometime soonish,

OK, I'm back home in Peru now, but still not sober. That may take a few weeks....

Hopefully chart works now.

Hitting the support line and had some consolidation. Hope she holds and continues the trend.

 

[shag]

thanks mate. what a good looking linear graph. esp if u hold.
i wish i had knowledge of these african pots(or plots) of gold earlier. maybe i should have looked at macbanks flow of monies. but im paranoid enough to suspect some of macbanks monies may go to mates projects. like aus esp sydney is a small place still.

re resistance, it ploughed thru 24 or so once it got going again after two weeks or so.
good u r back now to see the fallout from the bhp/rio saga. it will be interesting how chinalco plays the game from now. eitherway, the african and south american plays must benefit.

 

[Sean K]

Hitting the support line and had some consolidation. Hope she holds and continues the trend.

LOL, first time I put up a chart showing that trend and she breaks down. Very low volume, so not too disastrous, yet. A little bit of support at 30..

 

[sydneysider]

LOL, first time I put up a chart showing that trend and she breaks down. Very low volume, so not too disastrous, yet. A little bit of support at 30..

Kennas,

IF u had overlaid MACD and stochastics on the GRY chart, would clearly show that both turned down sharply several days ago. I am seeing this kind of behavior in many ASX listed stocks. IMHO this is indicating distribution across many listings. Looks like the market wants to pull back for awhile as lots of stocks look very "frothy".

 

[catman]

Sydney is right. Looking a bit shakey taking into account the turn on the daily MACD. However, the daily chart stochastic might give it a short term bounce when one takes note of todays inverted hammer. Might be in the process of forming a pennant pending consolidation.

http://www.trending123.com/patterns/bullish_pennant.html

GRY is an undervalued low cost production goldie IMHO.

 

[catman]

Sorry forgot to post the chart. Expecting some positive drilling results soon. They have quite a bit of land to drill. Strike lenths could be massive hence the interest from the likes of big insto's and major goldies.

 

[Sean K]

Expecting some positive drilling results soon. They have quite a bit of land to drill. Strike lenths could be massive hence the interest from the likes of big insto's and major goldies.

Yes, should be very soon, and an updated resource probably this quarter. Depending on how smoothly the drilling goes and the extent they drill out you could easily expect them to clear the 1m oz mark. I've been going through their last few anns in detail to see what strike lengths they're drilling out and the grades they were getting earlier and it looks pretty bloody good to me. The SW area extentions could hold hundreds of thousands of ounces alone by the look.

I'm not sure what the market is factoring in to the share price. If we take the average mc to oz au for an explorer in West Africa of $30 an ounce then with a market cap of $40m that's 1.2m ounces factored in. Looking at their strike lengths, depths and grades I think they might eventually exceed that by some margin. In fact, as the company states, multi million ounce potential.

Check out the step out drilling from the current resource on this map. 3km extention from the main deposit area and 1.5km in the SW zone. Could turn into anything really.

(not holding. not sure why not )

 

[Sean K]

Check out the step out drilling from the current resource on this map. 3km extention from the main deposit area and 1.5km in the SW zone. Could turn into anything really.

(not holding. not sure why not )

First 3 holes from the SW zone released and confirm mineralised areas going to depth and good grade. Not sure why they're going lower than 100m as their goal is to define 1m oz au ABOVE 100m. But anyway, confirms the strike and grades. Importantly, the central line step out hole that claimed 24m@4.75, is open at depth and confirmes the mineralisation. That could mean that central zone runs for at least 1000m, and good grades.

As I said before, this could turn out to be anything.


ASX Announcement and Media Release
Friday, 24 July 2009

Initial High Grade Drill Results:
9m @ 3.73g/t, 3m @ 12.26g/t, 12m @ 2.40g/t & 4m @ 5.1g/t Gold
Banfora Gold Project, Burkina Faso Highlights
 Drill results continue to intersect high grade gold mineralisation at the
Nogbele Gold Deposit (refer to table and maps).
 Results are from only the first three diamond holes from the recently
commenced major drilling campaign, further drill results are pending.
 Drilling will be ongoing with approximately 20,000 meters RC/DD planned
over the coming months.
 Drilling will continue to target shallow (<100 meters) high grade gold
mineralization.
 A new resource upgrade is expected on completion of this drilling campaign.


(holding a few now)

 

[Sean K]

New results, from a different area than mentioned above, to the NW. The area in the blue circle is that mentioned above.

So, both regions should be included in the end of year resource upgrade. By this, it should be significant.


Further High Grade Drill Results include:

12m @ 4.26g/t, 8m @ 4.43g/t, 6m @ 3.57g/t Gold

Banfora Gold Project, Burkina Faso Highlights

 Drill results continue to intersect high grade gold mineralisation at the Nogbele Gold Deposit (Refer to table and maps).
 Results include 12m @ 4.26g/t from 76m & 8m @ 4.43g/t from 28m in multiple mineralised zones, including a new confirmed zone 800 meters further east.
 Ongoing drilling will continue to target shallow high grade gold mineralization on several targets at the Banfora Gold Project.
 A new resource upgrade is expected on completion of this drilling campaign.

 

[Sean K]

To get a larger pictuire of the resource potential we need to consider what other discoveries could turn into resources. Lots of targets have been developed and I'm surprised some of the hits haven't been targetted in more detail. Perhaps there's only so much drilling you can do? Why they haven't followed up the Muddi intersection of 24m @ 2.5 g/t in the SE corner is surprising. And 150g/t rock chip samples. Maybe they have and I can't find the drilling results?

Pushing up against resistance in a bit of a triangly looking thing at the moment. If it breaks through after this sideways action you might expect it to run a little, but this resistance looks tough. Perhaps it needs the JORC upgrade, due in the second half for it to be re-rated.

176m@.335 = $59m less cash $12m = $47m EV.

Currently 800k JORC gives it $58 an ounce valuation which is high for an explorer.

If the benchmark is about $30 an ounce then the market's factoring in about 1.5m ounces coming up. Almost double the current JORC. So, fundamentally, probably not too much upside from this price unless they look to have much more potential than 1.5m....

New research report from Austock out on 1 Aug which I missed. Puts it as Spec Buy.

Outlook / Investment View

The recent funding leaves GRY comfortably financed, enabling it to advance its exploration program well into 2010 and allowing it to lift its resource position above the coveted 1moz level. This is around a year later than had initially been indicated, but it reflects the more conservative expenditure rate made necessary by the economic events of mid-late 2008.

GRY remains an attractive exploration play, and one that is now progressing towards an early development play.

http://www.gryphonminerals.com.au/documents/AustockGRY-SepQ09.pdf

Argonaut put it as a Spec Buy on 27 July also.

Blackswan slapped a Spec Buy on it on 24 June, but gives a target of $0.55-0.70.

Recommendation and Price Target
• Speculative Buy. Buy below $0.33.
• We have established a price target range of A$0.55 ‐ A$0.70.
• The investment horizon under consideration is 6 ‐ 12 months.

They worked that out on a peer comparison pretty much how I look at things, but use $40 an ounce for anything over 1.5m oz au as base case, then move it up to $66 an ounce.

Assuming 166M shares on issue, the subjective probabilities outlined above give the following estimated share price target ranges:

At announcement of upgrade to 1,500,000 ounces based on A$40/oz valuation:
(1,000,000 + (500,000*75%) at A$40/oz = 1,375,000 * A$40 = A$55.0M
Price per share on 158M fpo = A$55 / 166 = A$0.33 BASE PRICE VALUATION

At announcement of upgrade to 1,500,000 ounces based on A$66/oz valuation:
(1,000,000 + (500,000*75%) at A$66/oz = 1,375,000 * A$66 = A$9.75M
Price per share on 166M fpo = A$91 / 166 = A$0.55 TARGET PRICE LOW

At announcement of upgrade to 2,000,000 ounces based on A$66/oz valuation:
(1,500,000 + (500,000 * 50%)) at A$66/oz = 1,750,000 * A$66 = A$115.5M
Price per share on 166M fpo = A$115 / 166 = A$0.70 TARGET PRICE HIGH

http://www.gryphonminerals.com.au/documents/BlackSwanEquities-GryphonMinerals-June2009.pdf

 

[Sean K]

Hey kennas, she might have broken through yesterday, along with the rest of the ASX. Went as high as 37c before dropping back to 36c. For this to be a breakout need it to hold above and then make 35c as support. Chau!